UGI Corporation (UGI) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of UGI Corporation stock $29.40, price $37.04, that is 20.6% below the price, quality 55 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 9, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $17.43 – $39.39 · fair‑value band $14.14 – $54.57 · the $37.04 price screens above the $29.40 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 9, 2026.
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UGI Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the distribution, storage, transportation, and marketing of energy products and related services in the United States and internationally.
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The company operates through four segments: Utilities, Midstream & Marketing, UGI International, and AmeriGas Propane. It distributes propane to approximately 801 million residential, commercial/industrial, motor fuel, agricultural, and wholesale customers.
The company distributes liquefied petroleum gases (LPG) to residential, commercial, industrial, agricultural, wholesale and automobile fuel customers; and provides logistics, storage, and other services to third-party LPG distributors.
In addition, it engages in the retail sale of natural gas, liquid fuels, and electricity to approximately 10,800 residential, commercial, and industrial customers.
Further, the company distributes natural gas to approximately 694,000 customers in eastern and central Pennsylvania counties through its distribution system of approximately 12,700 miles of gas mains; and supplies electricity to approximately 62,900 customers in northeastern Pennsylvania through 2,700 miles of lines and 14 substations.
Additionally, it operates electric generation facilities; natural gas liquefaction, storage, and vaporization facility; propane storage and propane-air mixing stations; and rail transshipment terminals.
It manages natural gas pipeline and storage contracts; develops, owns, and operates pipelines, gathering infrastructure, and gas storage facilities. UGI Corporation was incorporated in 1882 and is headquartered in King of Prussia, Pennsylvania.
Stock analysis
UGI Corporation (UGI) currently trades at $37.04, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $29.40, 21% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $50.98 per share, and 7 of the 26 models we run sit above the $37.04 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $4.99, and 19 of the 26 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $14.14 (bear) to $54.57 (bull), the price of $37.04 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 55/100 (solid quality), in the Utilities sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
UGI Corporation reported revenue of $7.3B in FY2025 versus $7.4B in FY2021, a compound −0.5%/yr. Reported net income was $678M in FY2025, compounding −17.5%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $8.0B Mid · P/E ratio 12.3 · P/S ratio 1.09 · EPS (TTM) $3.01 · Dividend yield 4.0% · Net margin 9.2% · Return on equity 13.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 5.3% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 40 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 6% below its 52-week high and 17% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at 4% fair-value upside, at −21%, UGI screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$14.14Fair Value $29.40Bull$54.57
Price $37.04 · Downside -20.6%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 12 months old). Earnings retained since then ($1.51 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
In the last 6 months, one officer or director sold shares worth $852,603 and none bought.
SaleKathleen Shea-BallayGC and Chief Legal Officer25,360 shares at $33.62$852,603Jun 18, 2026
SaleJean Felix TematioVP, CAO & Corporate Controller12,840 shares at $38.07$488,819Feb 11, 2026
SaleJoseph L. HartzPresident of Subsidiary2× since Nov 25, 2025: 20,000 shares, avg. $38.62$772,450Dec 17, 2025
SaleSean O'BrienChief Financial Officer28,709 shares at $37.65$1.1MDec 5, 2025
SaleHans G. BellPresident of Subsidiary11,300 shares at $38.91$439,683Nov 26, 2025
Plus 3 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+1.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−10.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.1%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +0.9% a year
Revenue growth 40 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.4%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
+5.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+1.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)4.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.4.1% vs 4.9%, steady
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.15% → 15%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 2.1%/yr over ~10Y (margins eroding too) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+21.2%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+3.0%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +18.4% a year for the price and +0.6% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (98 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
AI conclusion: Regulated gas operations deliver clearer near-term earnings visibility from approved rate increases, yet thin differentiation and a multi-year ban on new filings limit pricing flexibility and overall quality.
Main risk: Widespread adoption of electric heat pumps and building codes favoring electrification might reduce volumes and margins in UGI's regulated gas distribution operations over time.
Bull case: UGI could expand renewable natural gas projects and data center supply deals to offset any demand loss from electrification while maintaining infrastructure utilization.
Bear case: Accelerated electrification policies and customer switching to electric heating could shrink UGI's core gas distribution volumes and force asset write-downs or restructuring.
UGI's Pennsylvania gas utility received approval for a reduced and phased rate increase along with a multi-year ban on new base rate filings. This arrangement offers clearer near-term earnings visibility while restricting the ability to adjust for future cost pressures. Our models currently see the shares as overvalued. Will the regulatory certainty support sustained performance more than the limited pricing flexibility constrains it?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Utilities - Regulated Gas · 107 stocks
Beats the industry median on 8/15 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score55 · Above median
Fair Value upside−20.6% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)13.3% · Top 25%
Return on assets4.4% · Above median
Net margin (12 months)9.2% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)−2.5% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)−4.5% · Below median
Dividend yield (12 months)4.0% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.37× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Utilities - Regulated Gas median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)12.3× · Cheaper than median
P/B1.66× · Pricier than median
P/S (12 months)1.09× · Cheaper than median
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year)20.4× · Pricier than median
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "UGI Corporation Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/UGI
Frequently asked questions
Is UGI Corporation (UGI) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 9, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $29.40 versus a price of $37.04, about 21% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of UGI?
Our model-based fair value for UGI Corporation is $29.40 (as of Nov 9, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $37.04.
What is the quality score of UGI?
UGI Corporation has a Quality Score of 55/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for UGI Corporation (UGI)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $29.40 (as of Nov 9, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario $14.14, optimistic scenario $54.57. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the UGI Corporation stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $29.40, about 21% lower versus a price of $37.04 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $14.14, optimistic scenario $54.57. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of UGI Corporation (UGI)?
UGI Corporation reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $7.3B (latest available figure, as of Nov 9, 2026).
Does UGI Corporation pay a dividend?
UGI Corporation currently shows a dividend yield of 4.05% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 9, 2026).
How much is the dividend of UGI Corporation (UGI) and when is the ex-dividend date?
UGI Corporation pays a dividend of $1.50 per share a year, a dividend yield of 4.0%. The last ex-dividend date was Sep 15, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since 1986. The payout ratio is 57.5% of earnings (on adjusted earnings, reported 49.8%). Free cash flow covers the dividend 1.21 times. Our assessment: Well covered. A low payout and the dividend is fully funded by free cash flow, a comfortable, sustainable dividend.
What growth is priced into UGI Corporation (UGI)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, UGI Corporation would have to grow free cash flow by +21.2 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.6 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +2.1 % per year. As of Nov 9, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of UGI use?
Our models discount UGI Corporation at 9.6 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.95, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For UGI Corporation that is +21.2 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (9.6 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has UGI Corporation (UGI) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at UGI Corporation grew +2.1 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +21.2 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of UGI Corporation (UGI) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into UGI Corporation (+21.2 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of UGI Corporation (UGI)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 4.90 %: that much free cash flow UGI Corporation produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.6 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of UGI Corporation (UGI)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For UGI Corporation it is $29.40 per share (as of Nov 9, 2026), against a price of $37.04. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models in 8 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is UGI Corporation stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 9, 2026, UGI trades above its calculated fair value: price $37.04, fair value $29.40, a gap of about −21% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of UGI?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($37.04); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($29.40). For UGI Corporation the two are $7.64 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is UGI Corporation worth?
The market values UGI Corporation at about $8.0B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 9, 2026). Per share that is $37.04; our models calculate a fair value of $29.40 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about UGI?
Our models span a range for UGI Corporation: cautious scenario $14.14, base $29.40, optimistic $54.57 per share (as of Nov 9, 2026, price $37.04). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of UGI?
UGI Corporation trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 12.3 (as of Nov 9, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $29.40 is built from several models across several years. Excluding one-off items of fiscal year 2025 it is 13.8 (reported for FY2025: 12.0). Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 9 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings, 6 of the years ex one-offs: 10.9. Other multiples: PEG 48.8, P/B 1.7, P/S 1.1, EV/EBITDA 8.1.
What is the PEG ratio of UGI?
The PEG ratio of UGI Corporation is 48.82 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 9, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of UGI Corporation (UGI)?
Balance-sheet figures for UGI Corporation (as of Nov 9, 2026): return on equity 13.3%, debt of 1.37 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 55/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is UGI from its 52-week high?
UGI Corporation trades at $37.04, about 6% below its 52-week high of $39.39 and 17% above the low of $31.66 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $29.40 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to UGI Corporation?
From the same area (Utilities) we also value Naturgy Energy Group, Atmos Energy Corporation, Snam S.p.A, NiSource Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is UGI Corporation stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 9, 2026: price $37.04, calculated fair value $29.40 (−21%), Quality Score 55/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of UGI calculated?
We run UGI Corporation through 26 models from 8 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $29.40 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. UGI Corporation itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of UGI Corporation (UGI)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $37.04. Our model-based fair value is $29.40, about 21% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with UGI Corporation right now?
The model range is unusually wide ($14.14 to $54.57). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (55/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Where does the earnings growth of UGI Corporation (UGI) come from?
Earnings per share at UGI Corporation grew +1.6 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share −1.7 %, EBIT margin −0.6 %, tax rate +4.4 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −0.4 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of UGI Corporation
How large is the market capitalisation of UGI Corporation (UGI)?
The market capitalisation of UGI Corporation is $8.0B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of UGI Corporation (UGI)?
The price-to-sales ratio of UGI Corporation is 1.09 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of UGI Corporation (UGI)?
Earnings per share at UGI Corporation are $3.01 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 12.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of UGI Corporation (UGI)?
The dividend yield of UGI Corporation is 4.0% (payout 57.5%, on adjusted earnings, reported 49.8%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of UGI Corporation (UGI)?
The net margin of UGI Corporation is 9.2% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of UGI Corporation (UGI)?
The return on equity (ROE) of UGI Corporation is 13.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of UGI Corporation (UGI)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of UGI Corporation is 5.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of UGI Corporation (UGI)?
The operating margin of UGI Corporation is −2.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at UGI Corporation (UGI)?
Revenue at UGI Corporation is growing −4.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg −10.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at UGI Corporation (UGI)?
Earnings per share at UGI Corporation are growing +6.4% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does UGI Corporation (UGI) carry?
The net debt of UGI Corporation is $7.2B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 18.5 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 9, 2026