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XTI Aerospace, Inc. (XTIA) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Nov 10, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of XTI Aerospace, Inc. stock $0.15, price $1.00, that is 84.7% below the price, quality 30 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 2 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

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Industrials US · ISIN US98423K4058

XA XTI Aerospace, Inc. logo Thin data Nov 8, 2026

XTI Aerospace, Inc.

XTIA · US
Very expensive, weak quality

Our calculation puts a fair price 85% below what the stock costs today.

Low debt
Revenue last quarter +53% vs. a year ago.
Expensive Growth (revenue 5y +19.3 %/yr in USD)
Mixed vs. peers (4/10)
Neutral coverage
Fair value $0.1530 · Strongly overvalued
Quality 30/100
Loss-making · -88.4% net margin (TTM) · excl. goodwill write-downs -81.3%
Negative free cash flow
Narrow moat 12/100
Thin data
⚠ Dilution
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$1,000,000 $0.7240 Fair Value $0.1530 Aug 2021 Nov 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 8, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $0.7240 – $1,000,000 · fair‑value band $0.0765 – $0.2295 · the $0.9981 price screens above the $0.1530 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 8, 2026.

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Company profile

XTI Aerospace, Inc., an aerospace company, provides unmanned aerial systems solutions for enterprise, public safety, government, and defense customers in the United States and Poland.

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The company offers enterprise drone distribution, training, compliance management support, repair and maintenance, fleet sustainment, and related services.

It also provides TriFan 600, a fixed-wing aircraft design concept; distributes UAS platforms, payloads, sensors, batteries, accessories, and related equipment from third-party manufacturers; operate drone programs; lifecycle support services; fleet management tools, software integration, and operational workflow support services; and sales support and financing services.

It serves customers across multiple end markets, including agriculture, construction, inspection, mining, insurance, security, and energy and utilities. XTI Aerospace, Inc. is headquartered in Addison, Texas.

Stock analysis

XTI Aerospace, Inc. (XTIA) currently trades at $0.9981, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $0.1530, 85% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

How firm this estimate is: it rests on 2 models at a data quality of 81/100, which puts the data coverage at low.

Scenario range: $0.0765 (bear) to $0.2295 (bull), the price of $0.9981 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 30/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.

Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.

XTI Aerospace, Inc. reported revenue of $22.5M in FY2025 versus $16.0M in FY2021, a compound +8.9%/yr. Reported net income was −$68.8M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap $39.9M Micro · P/S ratio 0.51 · EPS (TTM) $−2.27 · Dividend yield 1.0% · Net margin −88.4% · Return on equity −309% · Return on assets (EBIT) −245% (5-year average) · Operating margin −27.7%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 12 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 67% below its 52-week high and 38% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −27% fair-value upside, at −85%, XTIA screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $0.0765 Fair Value $0.1530 Bull $0.2295
Price $0.9981 · Downside -84.7%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
DDM Multi-Stage $0.0900 $0.1600 $0.1900 65
Gordon GGM $0.0900 $0.1800 $0.2700 64
All 2 models by family
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM $0.0900 $0.1800 $0.2700 64
DDM Multi-Stage $0.0900 $0.1600 $0.1900 65

The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for dilution from new shares.

Open the full fair value analysis →

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 30/100

It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.

Profitability 4
How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital
Quality Growth 80
Are margins and returns getting better?
Cashflow 1
Do the profits arrive as real cash?
Financial strength 44
Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble
Investment 80
Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?
Low Volatility 50
How calm the share price moves, does not count
Price momentum 1
Price momentum of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count
Near the 52-week high 6
Distance to the 52-week high, does not count
New shares 0
Buys back shares or issues new ones?

Open the full quality analysis →

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 44/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+602.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+54.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+19.3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −10.3% a year
Revenue growth 15 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.6%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−270.1% (2020) → −182.2% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

XTIA screens overvalued: fair value 85% below the price. Compare with General Electric Company →

Earlier news

News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (28 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation. Neutral
Recent news coverage is roughly neutral, about typical for how stocks are covered.

Compare XTI Aerospace, Inc. with another stock

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Aerospace & Defense · 260 stocks

Beats the industry median on 4/9 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 30 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −84.7% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets −84.6% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (12 months) −88.4% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months) −27.7% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY) 53.1% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (12 months) 1.0% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.02× · Lowest 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Aerospace & Defense median · lower = cheaper

P/B 1.95× · book value is mostly goodwill ⓘGoodwill and other intangible assets are larger than the equity. The book value mainly reflects prices paid for past acquisitions, so we do not rank this P/B against the peer group.
P/S (12 months) 0.48× · Cheapest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)100 · sector 63
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 36
HEALTH (low debt)99 · sector 93
DIVIDEND (yield)19 · sector 18

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

Weapons Defense

Similar stocks

10 more Aerospace & Defense stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value Compare
Honeywell Aerospace Inc HONA $166.47 $181.25 +9% vs XTIA
TransDigm Group TDG $1,226 $1,317 +7% vs XTIA
General Dynamics Corporation GD $367.44 $274.19 −25% vs XTIA
Thales S.A HO €232.70 €170.99 −27% vs XTIA
Lockheed Martin Corporation LMT $603.12 $439.21 −27% vs XTIA
Northrop Grumman Corporation NOC $548.61 $382.98 −30% vs XTIA
Airbus SE AIR €208.25 €112.14 −46% vs XTIA
RTX Corporation RTX $200.27 $88.19 −56% vs XTIA
General Electric Company GE $337.91 $92.26 −73% vs XTIA
Howmet Aerospace Inc HWM $219.05 $52.65 −76% vs XTIA

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XTI Aerospace, Inc.: fair value per Fair Value Calculator

Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "XTI Aerospace, Inc. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/XTIA

Frequently asked questions

Is XTI Aerospace, Inc. (XTIA) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 8, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $0.1530 versus a price of $0.9981, about 85% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of XTIA?
Our model-based fair value for XTI Aerospace, Inc. is $0.1530 (as of Nov 8, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $0.9981.
What is the quality score of XTIA?
XTI Aerospace, Inc. has a Quality Score of 30/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for XTI Aerospace, Inc. (XTIA)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $0.1530 (as of Nov 8, 2026) from 2 valuation models. Cautious scenario $0.0765, optimistic scenario $0.2295. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the XTI Aerospace, Inc. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $0.1530, about 85% lower versus a price of $0.9981 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $0.0765, optimistic scenario $0.2295. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
Does XTI Aerospace, Inc. pay a dividend?
XTI Aerospace, Inc. currently shows a dividend yield of 0.97% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 8, 2026).
How much is the dividend of XTI Aerospace, Inc. (XTIA)?
XTI Aerospace, Inc. has a dividend yield of 1.0%.
What is the intrinsic value of XTI Aerospace, Inc. (XTIA)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For XTI Aerospace, Inc. it is $0.1530 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026), against a price of $0.9981. It is the blended result of 2 valuation models in 1 family (Dividend Discount).
Is XTI Aerospace, Inc. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 8, 2026, XTIA trades above its calculated fair value: price $0.9981, fair value $0.1530, a gap of about −85% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of XTIA?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($0.9981); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($0.1530). For XTI Aerospace, Inc. the two are $0.8451 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is XTI Aerospace, Inc. worth?
The market values XTI Aerospace, Inc. at about $39.9M (market capitalisation, as of Nov 8, 2026). Per share that is $0.9981; our models calculate a fair value of $0.1530 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about XTIA?
Our models span a range for XTI Aerospace, Inc.: cautious scenario $0.0765, base $0.1530, optimistic $0.2295 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026, price $0.9981). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of XTI Aerospace, Inc. (XTIA)?
Balance-sheet figures for XTI Aerospace, Inc. (as of Nov 8, 2026): return on equity −309.1%, debt of 0.02 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 30/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is XTIA from its 52-week high?
XTI Aerospace, Inc. trades at $0.9981, about 67% below its 52-week high of $3.06 and 38% above the low of $0.7240 (as of Nov 10, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $0.1530 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to XTI Aerospace, Inc.?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value General Electric Company, RTX Corporation, Airbus SE, Lockheed Martin Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is XTI Aerospace, Inc. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 8, 2026: price $0.9981, calculated fair value $0.1530 (−85%), Quality Score 30/100, from 2 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of XTIA calculated?
We run XTI Aerospace, Inc. through 2 models from 1 family: Dividend Discount. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $0.1530 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.1% above its aggregate fair value. XTI Aerospace, Inc. itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of XTI Aerospace, Inc. (XTIA)?
The closing price on Nov 10, 2026 was $0.9981. Our model-based fair value is $0.1530, about 85% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with XTI Aerospace, Inc. right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($0.2295). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (30/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The model range is unusually wide ($0.0765 to $0.2295). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.

Key figures of XTI Aerospace, Inc.

How large is the market capitalisation of XTI Aerospace, Inc. (XTIA)?
The market capitalisation of XTI Aerospace, Inc. is $39.9M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of XTI Aerospace, Inc. (XTIA)?
The price-to-sales ratio of XTI Aerospace, Inc. is 0.51 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of XTI Aerospace, Inc. (XTIA)?
Earnings per share at XTI Aerospace, Inc. are $−2.27. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of XTI Aerospace, Inc. (XTIA)?
The dividend yield of XTI Aerospace, Inc. is 1.0%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of XTI Aerospace, Inc. (XTIA)?
The net margin of XTI Aerospace, Inc. is −88.4% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of XTI Aerospace, Inc. (XTIA)?
The return on equity (ROE) of XTI Aerospace, Inc. is −309% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of XTI Aerospace, Inc. (XTIA)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of XTI Aerospace, Inc. is −245% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of XTI Aerospace, Inc. (XTIA)?
The operating margin of XTI Aerospace, Inc. is −27.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at XTI Aerospace, Inc. (XTIA)?
Revenue at XTI Aerospace, Inc. is growing +53.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg +54.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much free cash flow does XTI Aerospace, Inc. (XTIA) generate?
The free cash flow of XTI Aerospace, Inc. is −$36.8M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does XTI Aerospace, Inc. (XTIA) hold?
XTI Aerospace, Inc. holds more cash than debt, $5.3M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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