XTI Aerospace, Inc. (XTIA) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 25, 2026: fair value of XTI Aerospace, Inc. $0.10, price $0.98, upside -89.6%, quality 30 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $0.9215 – $1,000,000 · fair‑value band $0.0595 – $0.1360 · the $0.9810 price screens above the $0.1020 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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XTI Aerospace, Inc., an aerospace company, provides unmanned aerial systems solutions for enterprise, public safety, government, and defense customers in the United States and Poland. The company offers enterprise drone distribution, training, compliance management support, repair and maintenance, fleet sustainment, and related services.
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XTI Aerospace, Inc., an aerospace company, provides unmanned aerial systems solutions for enterprise, public safety, government, and defense customers in the United States and Poland. The company offers enterprise drone distribution, training, compliance management support, repair and maintenance, fleet sustainment, and related services. It also provides TriFan 600, a fixed-wing aircraft design concept; distributes UAS platforms, payloads, sensors, batteries, accessories, and related equipment from third-party manufacturers; operate drone programs; lifecycle support services; fleet management tools, software integration, and operational workflow support services; and sales support and financing services. It serves customers across multiple end markets, including agriculture, construction, inspection, mining, insurance, security, and energy and utilities. XTI Aerospace, Inc. is headquartered in Addison, Texas.
Stock analysis
XTI Aerospace, Inc. (XTIA) currently trades at $0.9810, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $0.1020, implying the stock looks roughly 861.5% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Asset-Based group reads highest at a median of $0.3600 per share, and 0 of the 3 models we run sit above the $0.9810 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $0.1200, and 3 of the 3 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: $0.0595 (bear) to $0.1360 (bull), the price of $0.9810 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 30/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
XTI Aerospace, Inc. reported revenue of $22.5M in FY2025 versus $16.0M in FY2021, a compound +8.9%/yr. Reported net income was −$68.8M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $63.9M · P/S ratio 1.27 · EPS (TTM) $−1.03 · Dividend yield 0.6% · Net margin −182% · Return on equity −309% · Return on assets (EBIT) −245% · Operating margin −37.5%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 32 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 68% below its 52-week high and 6% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −25% fair-value upside, at −90%, XTIA screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $0.0595Fair Value $0.1020Bull $0.1360
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.44/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+602.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+54.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+19.3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 9 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−9.1%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−270.1% (2020) → −182.2% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Aerospace & Defense · 227 stocks
Beats the industry median on 3/9 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score30 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−89.6% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets−51.2% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM)−181.6% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)−37.5% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth56.2% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)0.6% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.02× · Lowest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Aerospace & Defense median · lower = cheaper
P/B3.13× · book value is mostly goodwill ⓘGoodwill and other intangible assets are larger than the equity. The book value mainly reflects prices paid for past acquisitions, so we do not rank this P/B against the peer group.
P/S (TTM)1.27× · Cheapest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 47
PAST (return on equity)0· sector 38
HEALTH (low debt)99· sector 93
DIVIDEND (yield)13· sector 17
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "XTI Aerospace, Inc. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/XTIA
Frequently asked questions
Is XTI Aerospace, Inc. (XTIA) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $0.1020 versus a price of $0.9810, about −90% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of XTIA?
Our model-based fair value for XTI Aerospace, Inc. is $0.1020 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $0.9810.
What is the quality score of XTIA?
XTI Aerospace, Inc. has a Quality Score of 30/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for XTI Aerospace, Inc. (XTIA)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $0.1020 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 3 valuation models. Cautious scenario $0.0595, optimistic scenario $0.1360. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the XTI Aerospace, Inc. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $0.1020, about −90% upside versus a price of $0.9810 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $0.0595, optimistic scenario $0.1360. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of XTI Aerospace, Inc. (XTIA)?
XTI Aerospace, Inc. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $50.2M (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does XTI Aerospace, Inc. pay a dividend?
XTI Aerospace, Inc. currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.64% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of XTI Aerospace, Inc. (XTIA)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For XTI Aerospace, Inc. it is $0.1020 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $0.9810. It is the blended result of 3 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is XTI Aerospace, Inc. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, XTIA trades above its calculated fair value: price $0.9810, fair value $0.1020, a gap of about −90% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of XTIA?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($0.9810); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($0.1020). For XTI Aerospace, Inc. the two are $0.8790 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is XTI Aerospace, Inc. worth?
The market values XTI Aerospace, Inc. at about $63.9M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $0.9810; our models calculate a fair value of $0.1020 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about XTIA?
Our models span a range for XTI Aerospace, Inc.: cautious scenario $0.0595, base $0.1020, optimistic $0.1360 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $0.9810). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of XTI Aerospace, Inc. (XTIA)?
Balance-sheet figures for XTI Aerospace, Inc. (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity −309.1%, debt of 0.02 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 30/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is XTIA from its 52-week high?
XTI Aerospace, Inc. trades at $0.9810, about 68% below its 52-week high of $3.06 and 6% above the low of $0.9215 (as of Sep 25, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $0.1020 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to XTI Aerospace, Inc.?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value General Electric Company, RTX Corporation, Airbus SE, Lockheed Martin Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is XTI Aerospace, Inc. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $0.9810, calculated fair value $0.1020 (−90%), Quality Score 30/100, from 3 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of XTIA calculated?
We run XTI Aerospace, Inc. through 3 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $0.1020, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.9 % above its aggregate fair value. XTI Aerospace, Inc. itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of XTI Aerospace, Inc. (XTIA)?
The closing price on Sep 25, 2026 was $0.9810. Our model-based fair value is $0.1020, about −90% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with XTI Aerospace, Inc. right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($0.1360). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (30/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range ($0.0595 to $0.1360) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of XTI Aerospace, Inc.
How large is the market capitalisation of XTI Aerospace, Inc. (XTIA)?
The market capitalisation of XTI Aerospace, Inc. is $63.9M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of XTI Aerospace, Inc. (XTIA)?
The price-to-sales ratio of XTI Aerospace, Inc. is 1.27 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of XTI Aerospace, Inc. (XTIA)?
Earnings per share at XTI Aerospace, Inc. are $−1.03. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of XTI Aerospace, Inc. (XTIA)?
The dividend yield of XTI Aerospace, Inc. is 0.6%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of XTI Aerospace, Inc. (XTIA)?
The net margin of XTI Aerospace, Inc. is −182% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of XTI Aerospace, Inc. (XTIA)?
The return on equity (ROE) of XTI Aerospace, Inc. is −309% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of XTI Aerospace, Inc. (XTIA)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of XTI Aerospace, Inc. is −245% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of XTI Aerospace, Inc. (XTIA)?
The operating margin of XTI Aerospace, Inc. is −37.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at XTI Aerospace, Inc. (XTIA)?
Revenue at XTI Aerospace, Inc. is growing +56.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg +54.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much free cash flow does XTI Aerospace, Inc. (XTIA) generate?
The free cash flow of XTI Aerospace, Inc. is −$36.8M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does XTI Aerospace, Inc. (XTIA) hold?
XTI Aerospace, Inc. holds more cash than debt, $5.3M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Thin data
Sep 24, 2026