Chongqing Changan Automobile Co Ltd (000625) fair value: what the stock is really worth
We calculate from audited financials what Chongqing Changan Automobile Co Ltd is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily, free.
Compare price with fair valuebelow fair value = cheap, above = expensive
Check the quality50 and up solid, 75 and up strong
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Below-average quality, trading 38% below our fair value of ¥11.39.
As of Aug 13, 2026, the fair value of Chongqing Changan Automobile Co Ltd is ¥11.39 per share against a price of ¥7.12, so the fair value sits 60% above the price. A model estimate from reported figures, not an analyst target.
!Expensive Growth (revenue 5y +14.2 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 1.9% net margin
!Low debt · negative free cash flow
·2.32% dividend yield
!Mixed vs. peers (7/14)
!Narrow moat 26/100
!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain
!Weak on past: 11 out of 100
Evidence: MediumRange ¥8.03 to ¥12.56
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 15 valuation models · updated 28 days ago
Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from ¥10.84 to ¥11.39 (+5.1%) since Jul 13, 2026. Share price −3.1% over the past month.
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What matters now
The price is below even our cautious bear case (¥8.03). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
Solid quality (49/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥6.42 – ¥20.41 · fair‑value band ¥8.03 – ¥12.56 · the ¥7.12 price screens below the ¥11.39 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Chongqing Changan Automobile Co Ltd (000625) currently trades at ¥7.12, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥11.39, implying the stock looks roughly 37.5% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 49/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of ¥25.21 per share, and 14 of the 15 models we run sit above the ¥7.12 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at ¥6.26, and 1 of the 15 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Over the trailing twelve months, Chongqing Changan Automobile Co Ltd generated revenue of 163B CNY at a net margin of 1.9%. Revenue declined 4.3% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 2.7%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of 62.8B CNY. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Scenario range: ¥8.03 (bear) to ¥12.56 (bull), the price of ¥7.12 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target. The share trades about 48% below its 52-week high, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −18% fair-value upside, at 60%, 000625 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 8 months old). Earnings retained since then (¥0.1005 per share) are deliberately not added.
Each model values the company its own way; the fair value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0 to 100) shows how complete a model's inputs are. How we calculate →
ModelBear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence
Highest evidence
Residual Income best evidence¥7.22¥7.34¥7.1476
Owner Earnings¥15.95¥25.21¥42.5274
EPV¥7.50¥7.68¥7.8474
All 15 models by family
DCF Models
Owner Earnings¥15.95¥25.21¥42.5274
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd¥3.35¥18.44¥25.5963
Lynch FV¥5.14¥7.34¥9.5461
PEG = 1.0¥5.14¥7.34¥9.5457
EPV¥7.50¥7.68¥7.8474
Multiples
P/E Multiple¥8.13¥10.84¥13.5563
P/S Multiple¥6.28¥8.38¥10.4758
P/B Multiple¥6.28¥8.38¥10.4755
EV/EBIT¥9.02¥9.89¥10.7666
EV/EBITDA¥15.00¥17.86¥20.7267
EV/Revenue¥8.17¥8.92¥9.6854
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)¥4.67¥6.26¥9.3554
Economic Profit
Residual Income best evidence¥7.22¥7.34¥7.1476
ROIC Compounder¥7.50¥7.68¥7.8472
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E¥7.64¥10.91¥14.1867
Widest divergence: DCF Models (¥25.21) versus Asset-Based (¥6.26). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
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Key figures & financial health
P/E ratio22.9as of Jul 13, 2026
P/S ratio0.57P/E × margin
EPS (TTM)¥0.3100price ÷ EPS = P/E 22.9
Dividend yield2.3%payout 53.2%
Net margin2.5%FY2025
Return on equity2.7%TTM
More key figures
Profitability
Return on assets (EBIT)3.5%avg 5y
Operating margin1.4%TTM
Growth
Revenue (TTM)163B CNYTTM
Revenue growth (YoY)−4.3%3y avg +10.6%
EPS growth (YoY)−71.4%
Balance sheet & cash flow
Free cash flow−2.8B CNYFY2025
Net cash62.8B CNYFY2024
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality49/100
Of which business quality 48
· Market factors (momentum, volatility) 33
Profitability32
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth43
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow7
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength74
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment67
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility88
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum13
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum3
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance85
Buybacks instead of dilution
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Chongqing Changan Automobile Company Limited, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells automobiles, automotive engines, supporting parts, and components in the People's Republic of China and South Africa. The company's products include passenger vehicles, SUVs, electric vehicles, and commercial vehicles.
Full company description
Chongqing Changan Automobile Company Limited, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells automobiles, automotive engines, supporting parts, and components in the People's Republic of China and South Africa. The company's products include passenger vehicles, SUVs, electric vehicles, and commercial vehicles. It offers its products under the CHANGAN, DEEPAL, AVATR, CHANGAN NEVO, CHANGAN LCV, CHANGAN Ford, CHANGAN Mazda, LUMIN, UNI, and HUNTER brands. The company also develops EV technologies represented by batteries, motors, and electronic controls; intelligent technologies, such as cockpits and pilot, as well as automotive lifestyle services; and businesses comprising automotive life, new marketing, and battery swap services, as well as provides auto finance services. The company was incorporated in 1996 and is based in Chongqing, the People's Republic of China.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Chongqing Changan Automobile Co Ltd reported revenue of 164B CNY in FY2025 versus 105B CNY in FY2021, a compound +11.8%/yr. Reported net income was 4.1B CNY in FY2025, compounding +3.5%/yr from FY2021.
Growth Quality 58/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
164B CNY
Latest YoY
+2.7%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+10.6%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+14.2%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (32Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+14.4%
Value creation/yr (5Y) ⓘEarnings growth per share (CAGR 5 years) plus dividend yield: value created per share and year.
+1.9%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend yield: the value created per share and year.
Earnings growth per share−0.4%
Dividend yield2.3%
Trend ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.5Y −0.4% vs 10Y −12.3%, picking up
Operating margin (EBIT) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−3.0% (2019) → 1.0% (2025) · rising
Worst earnings drop127% (2019) (loss year, drop beyond 100%) · in CNY
Revenue+11.8%/yr
FY21105B CNY
FY22121B CNY
FY23151B CNY
FY24160B CNY
FY25164B CNY
Net income+3.5%/yr
FY213.6B CNY
FY227.8B CNY
FY2311.3B CNY
FY247.3B CNY
FY254.1B CNY
Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2013-2024)−2.1 % p.a.
Revenue per share+6.6 %
of which total revenue +11.8 % · buybacks/dilution −4.6 %
EBIT margin−8.2 %
Tax rate−0.7 %
Residual (interest, one-offs)+0.8 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
This stockSector peers
VALUE100· sector 26
FUTURE0· sector 30
PAST11· sector 21
HEALTH99· sector 94
DIVIDEND46· sector 50
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
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Is Chongqing Changan Automobile Co Ltd (000625) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥11.39 versus a price of ¥7.12, about +60% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 000625?
Our model-based fair value for Chongqing Changan Automobile Co Ltd is ¥11.39 (as of Aug 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ¥7.12.
What is the quality score of 000625?
Chongqing Changan Automobile Co Ltd has a Quality Score of 49/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Chongqing Changan Automobile Co Ltd (000625)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ¥11.39 (as of Aug 13, 2026) from 15 valuation models. Cautious scenario ¥8.03, optimistic scenario ¥12.56. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Chongqing Changan Automobile Co Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ¥11.39, about +60% upside versus a price of ¥7.12 (undervalued). Cautious scenario ¥8.03, optimistic scenario ¥12.56. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Chongqing Changan Automobile Co Ltd (000625)?
Chongqing Changan Automobile Co Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 163B CNY (latest available figure, as of Aug 13, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of 000625?
The net profit margin of Chongqing Changan Automobile Co Ltd is about 1.9%, meaning it keeps roughly 1.9% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Chongqing Changan Automobile Co Ltd pay a dividend?
Chongqing Changan Automobile Co Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.32% relative to its recent price (as of Aug 13, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Chongqing Changan Automobile Co Ltd (000625)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Chongqing Changan Automobile Co Ltd it is ¥11.39 per share (as of Aug 13, 2026), against a price of ¥7.12. It is the blended result of 15 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Chongqing Changan Automobile Co Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Aug 13, 2026, 000625 trades below its calculated fair value: price ¥7.12, fair value ¥11.39, a gap of about +60% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 000625?
No. The price is what the market pays today (¥7.12); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (¥11.39). For Chongqing Changan Automobile Co Ltd the two are ¥4.27 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Chongqing Changan Automobile Co Ltd worth?
The market values Chongqing Changan Automobile Co Ltd at about 70.6B CNY (market capitalisation, as of Aug 13, 2026). Per share that is ¥7.12; our models calculate a fair value of ¥11.39 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 000625?
Our models span a range for Chongqing Changan Automobile Co Ltd: cautious scenario ¥8.03, base ¥11.39, optimistic ¥12.56 per share (as of Aug 13, 2026, price ¥7.12). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 000625?
Chongqing Changan Automobile Co Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 22.9 (as of Aug 13, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of ¥11.39 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 0.5, P/B 0.9, P/S 0.4, EV/EBITDA 2.4.
What is the PEG ratio of 000625?
The PEG ratio of Chongqing Changan Automobile Co Ltd is 0.46 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Aug 13, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Chongqing Changan Automobile Co Ltd (000625)?
Balance-sheet figures for Chongqing Changan Automobile Co Ltd (as of Aug 13, 2026): return on equity 2.7%, debt of 0.01 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 49/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 000625 from its 52-week high?
Chongqing Changan Automobile Co Ltd trades at ¥7.12, about 48% below its 52-week high of ¥13.78 (as of Aug 13, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ¥11.39 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Chongqing Changan Automobile Co Ltd?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Toyota Motor Corporation, BYD Company, Hyundai Motor Company, Ferrari N.V, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Chongqing Changan Automobile Co Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Aug 13, 2026: price ¥7.12, calculated fair value ¥11.39 (+60%), Quality Score 49/100, from 15 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 000625 calculated?
We run Chongqing Changan Automobile Co Ltd through 15 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ¥11.39, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 32.6 % above its aggregate fair value. Chongqing Changan Automobile Co Ltd currently trades 60 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on <a href="/is-it-worth-investing-now/">is it worth investing now</a>.
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