Chongqing Changan Automobile Co Ltd (000625) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Chongqing Changan Automobile Co Ltd stock ¥11.17, price ¥7.17, upside +55.9%, quality 50 out of 100. Rating: strongly undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 17 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 5, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥6.31 – ¥20.08 · fair‑value band ¥9.86 – ¥13.72 · the ¥7.17 price screens below the ¥11.17 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 5, 2026.
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Chongqing Changan Automobile Company Limited, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells automobiles, automotive engines, supporting parts, and components in the People's Republic of China and South Africa.
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The company's products include passenger vehicles, SUVs, electric vehicles, and commercial vehicles. It offers its products under the CHANGAN, DEEPAL, AVATR, CHANGAN NEVO, CHANGAN LCV, CHANGAN Ford, CHANGAN Mazda, LUMIN, UNI, and HUNTER brands.
The company also develops EV technologies represented by batteries, motors, and electronic controls; intelligent technologies, such as cockpits and pilot, as well as automotive lifestyle services; and businesses comprising automotive life, new marketing, and battery swap services, as well as provides auto finance services.
The company was incorporated in 1996 and is based in Chongqing, the People's Republic of China.
Stock analysis
Chongqing Changan Automobile Co Ltd (000625) currently trades at ¥7.17, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥11.17, implying the stock looks roughly 36% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of ¥10.96 per share, and 15 of the 17 models we run sit above the ¥7.17 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at ¥7.54, and 2 of the 17 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: ¥9.86 (bear) to ¥13.72 (bull), the price of ¥7.17 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 50/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Chongqing Changan Automobile Co Ltd reported revenue of 164B CNY in FY2025 versus 105B CNY in FY2021, a compound +11.8%/yr. Reported net income was 4.1B CNY in FY2025, compounding +3.5%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 71.1B CNY (≈ $10.7B) Large · P/E ratio 65.4 · P/S ratio 0.47 · EPS (TTM) ¥0.1100 · Dividend yield 1.6% · Net margin 0.7% · Return on equity 0.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 3.5% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 25 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 41% below its 52-week high and 6% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 8% fair-value upside, at 56%, 000625 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear¥9.86Fair Value ¥11.17Bull¥13.72
Price ¥7.17 · Upside +55.9%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
Owner Earnings¥7.40¥8.39¥10.3078
Residual Income¥7.37¥7.61¥8.1176
EPV¥7.53¥7.73¥7.9074
All 17 models by family
DCF Models
Owner Earnings¥7.40¥8.39¥10.3078
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd¥3.35¥18.44¥25.5963
Lynch FV¥5.14¥7.34¥9.5461
PEG = 1.0¥5.14¥7.34¥9.5457
EPV¥7.53¥7.73¥7.9074
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM¥3.98¥8.53¥14.0466
DDM Multi-Stage¥3.98¥7.06¥8.9266
Multiples
P/E Multiple¥8.13¥10.84¥13.5563
P/S Multiple¥6.28¥8.38¥10.4758
P/B Multiple¥19.91¥26.55¥33.1955
EV/EBIT¥10.21¥11.08¥11.9566
EV/EBITDA¥16.18¥19.04¥21.9167
EV/Revenue¥9.36¥10.11¥10.8654
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)¥0.2300¥0.3500¥0.440054
Economic Profit
Residual Income¥7.37¥7.61¥8.1176
ROIC Compounder¥7.53¥7.73¥7.9072
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E¥7.64¥10.91¥14.1867
The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for a cyclical trough year.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.58/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+2.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+14.2%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +9.4% a year
Revenue growth 32 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+14.4%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+1.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−0.4%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.6%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−0.4% vs −12.3%, picking up
Profit margin 2019 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−3% → 1%
AI conclusion: Modest positioning without a durable moat marks the core quality assessment while rising new-energy and overseas volumes form the main strength against negative free cash flow.
Main risk: Stronger rivals such as BYD with far higher NEV market share could continue taking customers in China and force Changan to cut prices or margins on its vehicles.
Bull case: Changan could accelerate its in-house intelligent driving tech and European local partnerships to differentiate products and secure tariff-free access while gaining from overseas volume growth.
Bear case: If domestic competition intensifies and European regulatory barriers persist without successful local production, Changan's sales and margins could remain under sustained pressure with limited offset from new markets.
Changan’s total vehicle sales fell nearly a fifth in September while new-energy and overseas volumes rose. The company is now signing distribution partnerships across seven European markets and presenting its hybrid and EV line-up at the Paris motor show to anchor a local presence. Will faster international growth offset the continued weakness in its main domestic market?
Compare Chongqing Changan Automobile Co Ltd with another stock
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Auto Manufacturers · 106 stocks
Beats the industry median on 8/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score50 · Above median
Fair Value upside+55.9% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)0.4% · Below median
Return on assets2.0% · Above median
Net margin (12 months)0.7% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months)1.2% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)−14.2% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)1.6% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.01× · Lowest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Auto Manufacturers median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Chongqing Changan Automobile Co Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/000625
Frequently asked questions
Is Chongqing Changan Automobile Co Ltd (000625) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 5, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥11.17 versus a price of ¥7.17, about +56% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 000625?
Our model-based fair value for Chongqing Changan Automobile Co Ltd is ¥11.17 (as of Nov 5, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ¥7.17.
What is the quality score of 000625?
Chongqing Changan Automobile Co Ltd has a Quality Score of 50/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Chongqing Changan Automobile Co Ltd (000625)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ¥11.17 (as of Nov 5, 2026) from 17 valuation models. Cautious scenario ¥9.86, optimistic scenario ¥13.72. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Chongqing Changan Automobile Co Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ¥11.17, about +56% upside versus a price of ¥7.17 (undervalued). Cautious scenario ¥9.86, optimistic scenario ¥13.72. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Chongqing Changan Automobile Co Ltd (000625)?
Chongqing Changan Automobile Co Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 151B CNY (latest available figure, as of Nov 5, 2026).
Does Chongqing Changan Automobile Co Ltd pay a dividend?
Chongqing Changan Automobile Co Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of 1.60% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 5, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Chongqing Changan Automobile Co Ltd (000625) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Chongqing Changan Automobile Co Ltd pays a dividend of ¥0.115 per share a year, a dividend yield of 1.6%. The last ex-dividend date was Jul 16, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since 2021. The payout ratio is 105% of earnings. Our assessment: Pays more than it earns. The company pays out more in dividends than it earns, and free cash flow clearly does not cover the dividend either. It may need to be cut unless profits recover.
What is the intrinsic value of Chongqing Changan Automobile Co Ltd (000625)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Chongqing Changan Automobile Co Ltd it is ¥11.17 per share (as of Nov 5, 2026), against a price of ¥7.17. It is the blended result of 17 valuation models in 7 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Chongqing Changan Automobile Co Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 5, 2026, 000625 trades below its calculated fair value: price ¥7.17, fair value ¥11.17, a gap of about +56% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 000625?
No. The price is what the market pays today (¥7.17); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (¥11.17). For Chongqing Changan Automobile Co Ltd the two are ¥4.00 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Chongqing Changan Automobile Co Ltd worth?
The market values Chongqing Changan Automobile Co Ltd at about 71.1B CNY (market capitalisation, as of Nov 5, 2026). Per share that is ¥7.17; our models calculate a fair value of ¥11.17 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 000625?
Our models span a range for Chongqing Changan Automobile Co Ltd: cautious scenario ¥9.86, base ¥11.17, optimistic ¥13.72 per share (as of Nov 5, 2026, price ¥7.17). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 000625?
Chongqing Changan Automobile Co Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 65.4 (as of Nov 5, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of ¥11.17 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 0.5, P/B 0.9, P/S 0.5, EV/EBITDA 2.4.
What is the PEG ratio of 000625?
The PEG ratio of Chongqing Changan Automobile Co Ltd is 0.46 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 5, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Chongqing Changan Automobile Co Ltd (000625)?
Balance-sheet figures for Chongqing Changan Automobile Co Ltd (as of Nov 5, 2026): return on equity 0.4%, debt of 0.01 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 50/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 000625 from its 52-week high?
Chongqing Changan Automobile Co Ltd trades at ¥7.17, about 41% below its 52-week high of ¥12.09 and 6% above the low of ¥6.75 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ¥11.17 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Chongqing Changan Automobile Co Ltd?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Tesla, Inc, Toyota Motor Corporation, BYD Company, Ferrari N.V, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Chongqing Changan Automobile Co Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 5, 2026: price ¥7.17, calculated fair value ¥11.17 (+56%), Quality Score 50/100, from 17 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 000625 calculated?
We run Chongqing Changan Automobile Co Ltd through 17 models from 7 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of ¥11.17 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0% above its aggregate fair value. Chongqing Changan Automobile Co Ltd currently trades 36% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Chongqing Changan Automobile Co Ltd (000625)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was ¥7.17. Our model-based fair value is ¥11.17, about +56% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Chongqing Changan Automobile Co Ltd right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (¥9.86). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. Solid quality (50/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Where does the earnings growth of Chongqing Changan Automobile Co Ltd (000625) come from?
Earnings per share at Chongqing Changan Automobile Co Ltd grew −2.1 % a year from 2013 to 2024. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +6.6 %, EBIT margin −8.2 %, tax rate −0.7 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.8 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Chongqing Changan Automobile Co Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Chongqing Changan Automobile Co Ltd (000625)?
The market capitalisation of Chongqing Changan Automobile Co Ltd is 71.1B CNY (≈ $10.7B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Chongqing Changan Automobile Co Ltd (000625)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Chongqing Changan Automobile Co Ltd is 0.47 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Chongqing Changan Automobile Co Ltd (000625)?
Earnings per share at Chongqing Changan Automobile Co Ltd are ¥0.1100 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 65.4). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Chongqing Changan Automobile Co Ltd (000625)?
The dividend yield of Chongqing Changan Automobile Co Ltd is 1.6% (payout 105%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Chongqing Changan Automobile Co Ltd (000625)?
The net margin of Chongqing Changan Automobile Co Ltd is 0.7% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Chongqing Changan Automobile Co Ltd (000625)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Chongqing Changan Automobile Co Ltd is 0.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Chongqing Changan Automobile Co Ltd (000625)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Chongqing Changan Automobile Co Ltd is 3.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Chongqing Changan Automobile Co Ltd (000625)?
The operating margin of Chongqing Changan Automobile Co Ltd is 1.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Chongqing Changan Automobile Co Ltd (000625)?
Revenue at Chongqing Changan Automobile Co Ltd is growing −14.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg +10.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Chongqing Changan Automobile Co Ltd (000625)?
Earnings per share at Chongqing Changan Automobile Co Ltd are growing −56.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Chongqing Changan Automobile Co Ltd (000625) generate?
The free cash flow of Chongqing Changan Automobile Co Ltd is −2.8B CNY (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Chongqing Changan Automobile Co Ltd (000625) hold?
Chongqing Changan Automobile Co Ltd holds more cash than debt, 62.8B CNY net (fiscal year 2024). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Nov 5, 2026