North Copper Co (000737) Fair Value & Analysis
Basic Materials · CN · Market cap 28.3B CNY
Fair value as of: Jul 21, 2026
From 24 valuation models · updated 20 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 21, 2026, revised from ¥12.50 to ¥8.72 (−30.2%) since Jun 25, 2026. Share price +13.8% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 40% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥10.90). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (49/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 21, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥4.01 – ¥20.57 · fair‑value band ¥6.54 – ¥10.90 · the ¥14.64 price screens above the ¥8.72 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 21, 2026.
Analysis
North Copper Co (000737) currently trades at ¥14.64, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥8.72, implying the stock looks roughly 40.4% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 49/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, North Copper Co generated revenue of 31.1B CNY at a net margin of 3.3%. Revenue grew 46.9% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 14.7%. Net debt stands at 5.8B CNY. Fundamentals as of Jul 21, 2026
Our scenario range runs from ¥6.54 (bear case) to ¥10.90 (bull case); at ¥14.64, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 32% below its 52-week high and 68% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at -46% fair-value upside, at -40%, 000737 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 24 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth DCF (¥15.43) versus Asset-Based (¥2.39). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 21, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 50 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 46
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
North Copper Co., Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the mining, beneficiation, smelting, rolling, and sale of copper metal products in China. The company offers cathode copper, copper alloy strips, and rolled copper foil, as well as gold and silver ingots, industrial sulfuric acid, sponge palladium, and other rare and precious metals.
Full company description
North Copper Co., Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the mining, beneficiation, smelting, rolling, and sale of copper metal products in China. The company offers cathode copper, copper alloy strips, and rolled copper foil, as well as gold and silver ingots, industrial sulfuric acid, sponge palladium, and other rare and precious metals. It is also involved in the recovery of platinum, palladium, selenium, and bismuth; non-ferrous metal mining, smelting, and sale; production and sale of copper foil, copper-clad laminate, and copper ore from slag beneficiation; environmental monitoring; analysis and testing of metallic materials; and mining machinery manufacturing. The company was formerly known as North Copper (Shanxi) Co., Ltd. and changed its name to North Copper Co., Ltd. in September 2022. North Copper Co., Ltd. was founded in 1996 and is based in Yuncheng, China.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
North Copper Co reported revenue of ¥27.9B in FY2025 versus ¥10.0B in FY2021, a compound +29.4%/yr. Reported net income was ¥791M in FY2025, compounding −1.4%/yr from FY2021.
000737 screens 40% overvalued. Compare with Southern Copper Corporation →
Peer Group
Copper · 58 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Copper median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Copper stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 21, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Southern Copper Corporation SCCO | $175.66 | $86.74 | -51% |
| Freeport-McMoRan Inc FCX | $61.52 | $22.81 | -63% |
| Lundin Mining Corporation LUN | C$34.86 | C$18.67 | -46% |
| Jiangxi Copper Company 600362 | ¥39.03 | ¥35.19 | -10% |
| Tongling Nonferrous Metals Group 000630 | ¥5.79 | ¥3.06 | -47% |
| Hudbay Minerals Inc HBM | C$28.58 | C$21.79 | -24% |
| Zhejiang Hailiang Co 002203 | ¥16.66 | ¥7.00 | -58% |
| Capstone Copper Corp CSC | A$13.06 | A$7.28 | -44% |
| Yunnan Copper Co 000878 | ¥14.32 | ¥9.12 | -36% |
| China Nonferrous Mining Corporation 1258 | HK$14.75 | HK$1.76 | -88% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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