Sandfire Resources Ltd (SFR) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Sandfire Resources Ltd stock A$10.57, price A$19.11, that is 44.7% below the price, quality 74 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 8, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range A$3.25 – A$24.15 · fair‑value band A$7.06 – A$13.74 · the A$19.11 price screens above the A$10.57 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 8, 2026.
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Sandfire Resources Limited, a mining company, explores for, evaluates, and develops mineral tenements and projects. It primarily explores for copper, gold, silver, lead, and zinc deposits. The company was incorporated in 2003 and is based in West Perth, Australia.
Stock analysis
Sandfire Resources Ltd (SFR) currently trades at A$19.11, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$10.57, 45% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of A$33.58 per share, and 15 of the 26 models we run sit above the A$19.11 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at A$4.45, and 11 of the 26 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: A$7.06 (bear) to A$13.74 (bull), the price of A$19.11 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 74/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Sandfire Resources Ltd reported revenue of $1.7B in FY2026 versus $922M in FY2022, a compound +16.2%/yr. Reported net income was $364M in FY2026, compounding +24.0%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap A$8.9B (≈ $6.1B) Mid · P/E ratio 16.9 · P/S ratio 3.66 · EPS (TTM) A$1.13 · Dividend yield 1.8% · Net margin 21.6% · Return on equity 17.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 6.0% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 77 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 21% below its 52-week high and 30% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −20% fair-value upside, at −45%, SFR screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
BearA$7.06Fair Value A$10.57BullA$13.74
Price A$19.11 · Downside -44.7%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 4 months old). Earnings retained since then (A$0.2791 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
FCF DCFA$21.98A$34.92A$67.7877
Growth DCFA$20.97A$37.24A$64.5176
Residual IncomeA$6.74A$8.65A$12.9375
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCFA$21.98A$34.92A$67.7877
Owner EarningsA$22.67A$45.66A$87.6672
5Y Revenue ExitA$11.29A$17.46A$27.7671
5Y EBITDA ExitA$20.58A$37.84A$66.2872
5Y P/E ExitA$16.75A$31.00A$48.7169
10Y Revenue ExitA$14.64A$23.04A$32.6566
10Y EBITDA ExitA$20.79A$38.71A$69.9465
10Y P/E ExitA$18.33A$32.24A$54.6662
Earnings-Based
Graham-DoddA$7.69A$51.59A$72.2863
Lynch FVA$15.10A$21.58A$28.0561
PEG = 1.0A$15.10A$21.58A$28.0557
EPVA$9.56A$10.82A$11.8874
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGMA$2.76A$5.02A$6.9568
DDM Multi-StageA$2.76A$4.56A$5.3567
Multiples
P/E MultipleA$14.42A$19.23A$24.0463
P/S MultipleA$5.88A$7.85A$9.8158
P/B MultipleA$10.18A$13.57A$16.9655
EV/EBITA$18.74A$24.66A$30.5866
EV/EBITDAA$21.41A$28.21A$35.0267
EV/RevenueA$6.48A$8.83A$11.1854
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)A$3.32A$4.45A$6.6454
Growth DCF
Growth DCFA$20.97A$37.24A$64.5176
Rev-Margin DCFA$11.29A$18.24A$28.3271
Economic Profit
Residual IncomeA$6.74A$8.65A$12.9375
ROIC CompounderA$10.98A$14.93A$18.8272
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/EA$19.22A$27.46A$35.6967
The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for a cyclical peak year.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.80/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+39.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+27.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+16.8%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +13.0% a year
Revenue growth 22 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+57.7%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+16.6%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+14.8%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.8%
Per share before 2009divided by the spin-off factor 1.0472
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.14.8% vs 19.2%, slowing
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.30% → 32%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2021 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+1.6%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+8.8%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in USD, USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −0.8% a year for the price and +6.3% for the forecasts.
AI conclusion: Record copper-equivalent output and a shift to net cash form the main strength, while the thin evidence of any durable moat in a commodity copper business remains the central weakness.
Main risk: Changes to mining royalties, labor laws or environmental rules in Spain and Botswana could raise costs or restrict operations at the main producing assets.
Bull case: By advancing renewables at its sites and extending reserves via projects like Kalkaroo the company could reduce energy cost exposure and strengthen its position against regulatory shifts in core jurisdictions.
Bear case: If regulatory tightening occurs in Spain or Botswana while diesel prices remain elevated, the core assets could face higher costs and constrained output eroding returns from existing operations.
Sandfire achieved record copper equivalent output at its MATSA and Motheo operations in FY26 while moving to a net cash position. It has since committed substantial capital to a pre-feasibility study and drilling program at the Kalkaroo project to expand reserves. Will the added spending on new development lift long-term output enough to offset higher costs, or will it strain returns from the core assets?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Copper · 58 stocks
Beats the industry median on 11/15 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score74 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−44.7% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)17.7% · Above median
Return on assets11.3% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)21.6% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)38.9% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)58.5% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)1.8% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.10× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Copper median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)16.9× · Pricier than median
P/B2.76× · Pricier than median
P/S (12 months)3.71× · Pricier than median
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year)11.4× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA7.2× · Cheaper than median
PEG0.56× · Cheaper than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 100
PAST (return on equity)71· sector 43
HEALTH (low debt)95· sector 92
DIVIDEND (yield)37· sector 27
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
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Is Sandfire Resources Ltd (SFR) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 8, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of A$10.57 versus a price of A$19.11, about 45% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of SFR?
Our model-based fair value for Sandfire Resources Ltd is A$10.57 (as of Nov 8, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: A$19.11.
What is the quality score of SFR?
Sandfire Resources Ltd has a Quality Score of 74/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Sandfire Resources Ltd (SFR)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of A$10.57 (as of Nov 8, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario A$7.06, optimistic scenario A$13.74. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Sandfire Resources Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at A$10.57, about 45% lower versus a price of A$19.11 (overvalued). Cautious scenario A$7.06, optimistic scenario A$13.74. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Sandfire Resources Ltd (SFR)?
Sandfire Resources Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $1.6B (latest available figure, as of Nov 8, 2026).
Does Sandfire Resources Ltd pay a dividend?
Sandfire Resources Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of 1.84% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 8, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Sandfire Resources Ltd (SFR) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Sandfire Resources Ltd pays a dividend of A$0.352 per share a year, a dividend yield of 1.8%. The last ex-dividend date was Sep 10, 2026. The payout ratio is 31.1% of earnings. Free cash flow covers the dividend 4.74 times. Our assessment: Well covered. A low payout and the dividend is fully funded by free cash flow, a comfortable, sustainable dividend.
What growth is priced into Sandfire Resources Ltd (SFR)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Sandfire Resources Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +1.6 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.9 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +16.9 % per year. As of Nov 8, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of SFR use?
Our models discount Sandfire Resources Ltd at 10.9 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 1.58, country premium for Australia. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Sandfire Resources Ltd that is +1.6 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (10.9 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Sandfire Resources Ltd (SFR) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Sandfire Resources Ltd grew +16.9 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +1.6 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Sandfire Resources Ltd (SFR) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Sandfire Resources Ltd (+1.6 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Sandfire Resources Ltd (SFR)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 8.78 %: that much free cash flow Sandfire Resources Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.9 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Sandfire Resources Ltd (SFR)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Sandfire Resources Ltd it is A$10.57 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026), against a price of A$19.11. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models in 8 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Sandfire Resources Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 8, 2026, SFR trades above its calculated fair value: price A$19.11, fair value A$10.57, a gap of about −45% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of SFR?
No. The price is what the market pays today (A$19.11); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (A$10.57). For Sandfire Resources Ltd the two are A$8.54 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Sandfire Resources Ltd worth?
The market values Sandfire Resources Ltd at about A$8.9B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 8, 2026). Per share that is A$19.11; our models calculate a fair value of A$10.57 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about SFR?
Our models span a range for Sandfire Resources Ltd: cautious scenario A$7.06, base A$10.57, optimistic A$13.74 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026, price A$19.11). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of SFR?
Sandfire Resources Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 16.9 (as of Nov 8, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of A$10.57 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 0.6, P/B 2.8, P/S 3.7, EV/EBITDA 7.2.
What is the PEG ratio of SFR?
The PEG ratio of Sandfire Resources Ltd is 0.56 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 8, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Sandfire Resources Ltd (SFR)?
Balance-sheet figures for Sandfire Resources Ltd (as of Nov 8, 2026): return on equity 17.7%, debt of 0.10 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 74/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is SFR from its 52-week high?
Sandfire Resources Ltd trades at A$19.11, about 21% below its 52-week high of A$24.15 and 30% above the low of A$14.72 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of A$10.57 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Sandfire Resources Ltd?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Southern Copper Corporation, Freeport-McMoRan Inc, First Quantum Minerals Ltd, Lundin Mining Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Sandfire Resources Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 8, 2026: price A$19.11, calculated fair value A$10.57 (−45%), Quality Score 74/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of SFR calculated?
We run Sandfire Resources Ltd through 26 models from 8 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of A$10.57 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0% above its aggregate fair value. Sandfire Resources Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Sandfire Resources Ltd (SFR)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was A$19.11. Our model-based fair value is A$10.57, about 45% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Sandfire Resources Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (A$13.74). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (74/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range (A$7.06 to A$13.74) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Sandfire Resources Ltd (SFR) come from?
Earnings per share at Sandfire Resources Ltd grew +14.6 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +9.5 %, EBIT margin +2.8 %, tax rate +0.3 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +1.6 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Sandfire Resources Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Sandfire Resources Ltd (SFR)?
The market capitalisation of Sandfire Resources Ltd is A$8.9B (≈ $6.1B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Sandfire Resources Ltd (SFR)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Sandfire Resources Ltd is 3.66 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Sandfire Resources Ltd (SFR)?
Earnings per share at Sandfire Resources Ltd are A$1.13 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 16.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Sandfire Resources Ltd (SFR)?
The dividend yield of Sandfire Resources Ltd is 1.8% (payout 31.2%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Sandfire Resources Ltd (SFR)?
The net margin of Sandfire Resources Ltd is 21.6% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Sandfire Resources Ltd (SFR)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Sandfire Resources Ltd is 17.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Sandfire Resources Ltd (SFR)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Sandfire Resources Ltd is 6.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Sandfire Resources Ltd (SFR)?
The operating margin of Sandfire Resources Ltd is 38.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Sandfire Resources Ltd (SFR)?
Revenue at Sandfire Resources Ltd is growing +58.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg +27.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Sandfire Resources Ltd (SFR)?
Earnings per share at Sandfire Resources Ltd are growing +521% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Sandfire Resources Ltd (SFR) hold?
Sandfire Resources Ltd holds more cash than debt, $316M net (fiscal year 2026). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Broad data
Nov 8, 2026