Zhongtong Bus Holding (000957) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · CN · Market cap 6.1B CNY
Fair value as of: Jul 21, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 20 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 21, 2026, revised from ¥17.26 to ¥12.74 (−26.2%) since Jun 25, 2026. Share price +6.4% over the past month.
A solid business, screening 25% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- Our model range runs from ¥9.55 (bear) to ¥15.92 (bull), base ¥12.74. The closer the price sits to the lower half, the larger the margin of safety.
- Quality 71/100 (solid quality) with high evidence: the data supports the verdict.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 21, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥3.95 – ¥25.06 · fair‑value band ¥9.55 – ¥15.92 · the ¥10.20 price screens below the ¥12.74 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 21, 2026.
Analysis
Zhongtong Bus Holding (000957) currently trades at ¥10.20, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥12.74, implying the stock looks roughly 24.9% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 71/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, Zhongtong Bus Holding generated revenue of 7.4B CNY at a net margin of 5.2%. Revenue grew 5.2% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 12.3%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of 2.8B CNY. Fundamentals as of Jul 21, 2026
Our scenario range runs from ¥9.55 (bear case) to ¥15.92 (bull case); at ¥10.20, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 21% below its 52-week high and 6% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 12% fair-value upside, at 25%, 000957 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (¥29.06) versus Dividend Discount (¥2.02). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 21, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 70 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 40
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Zhongtong Bus Holding Co.,LTD engages in the manufacture and sale of buses in China. The company offers coaches, city buses, group buses, school buses, van, electric vehicles, and group buses, as well as negative pressure ambulances.
Full company description
Zhongtong Bus Holding Co.,LTD engages in the manufacture and sale of buses in China. The company offers coaches, city buses, group buses, school buses, van, electric vehicles, and group buses, as well as negative pressure ambulances. Zhongtong Bus Holding Co.,LTD offers its products under Navigator, Sparkling, Cruise, Compass, Magnate, Spring, Elegance, Fashion, BRT, Luxury Business, and TOP brands. The company exports its products to more than 90 countries. Zhongtong Bus Holding Co.,LTD was formerly known as Zhongtong Bus Co.,Ltd. and changed its name to Zhongtong Bus Holding Co.,LTD in June 2021. The company was founded in 1958 and is based in Liaocheng, China.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Zhongtong Bus Holding reported revenue of ¥7.3B in FY2025 versus ¥4.6B in FY2021, a compound +12.4%/yr. Reported net income was ¥360M in FY2025.
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Peer Group
Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery · 148 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 21, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Caterpillar Inc CAT | $952.41 | $307.83 | -68% |
| Deere & Company DE | $597.24 | $187.86 | -69% |
| AB Volvo (publ), VOLVA | kr 336.60 | kr 288.08 | -14% |
| PACCAR Inc PCAR | $126.20 | $94.80 | -25% |
| Epiroc AB EPIA | kr 251.90 | kr 144.14 | -43% |
| Exor N.V EXO | €69.40 | €219.41 | +216% |
| Sany Heavy Industry Co 600031 | ¥18.65 | ¥20.84 | +12% |
| XCMG Construction Machinery Co 000425 | ¥8.39 | ¥11.79 | +41% |
| Sinotruk (Hong Kong) Limited 3808 | HK$41.00 | HK$53.51 | +31% |
| Yutong Bus Co 600066 | ¥32.29 | ¥42.00 | +30% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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