New World Development Company (0017) Fair Value & Analysis
Real Estate · HK · Market cap HK$15.9B
Fair value as of: Aug 2, 2026
From 3 valuation models · updated 8 days ago
Fair value updated Aug 2, 2026, revised from HK$6.07 to HK$5.55 (−8.6%) since Jul 1, 2026. Share price +9.7% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 22% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (HK$6.82). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (37/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
- As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 2, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$4.04 – HK$34.75 · fair‑value band HK$4.25 – HK$6.82 · the HK$7.11 price screens above the HK$5.55 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 2, 2026.
Analysis
New World Development Company (0017) currently trades at HK$7.11, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$5.55, implying the stock looks roughly 21.9% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 37/100 (below-average quality), in the Real Estate sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).
Over the trailing twelve months, New World Development Company generated revenue of HK$19.3B at a net margin of -63.8%. Revenue declined 50.0% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -6.5%. Net debt stands at HK$130B. Fundamentals as of Aug 2, 2026
Our scenario range runs from HK$4.25 (bear case) to HK$6.82 (bull case); at HK$7.11, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 43% below its 52-week high and 37% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at -30% fair-value upside, at -22%, 0017 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 3 models by family
Widest divergence: Asset-Based (HK$52.95) versus Dividend Discount (HK$6.04). Highest evidence: Gordon GGM (70).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 2, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 37 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 32
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
New World Development Company Limited, an investment holding company, operates in the property development and investment business in Hong Kong and Mainland China. Its property portfolio includes residential, retail, office, and industrial properties.
Full company description
New World Development Company Limited, an investment holding company, operates in the property development and investment business in Hong Kong and Mainland China. Its property portfolio includes residential, retail, office, and industrial properties. The company is also involved in the loyalty program, fashion retailing and trading, and land development businesses; and development and operation of sports park. In addition, it operates club houses, golf and tennis academies, and shopping malls; constructs and operates Skycity complex; and operates department stores. Further, the company offers information technology, training course, ticketing, financial, project management, retail and corporate sales, management, culture and recreation, construction, estate agency, supply chain management, property management, business and investment consultancy, accountancy and advisory, and consultancy services. Additionally, it invests in, owns, and operates hotel properties. New World Development Company Limited was incorporated in 1970 and is headquartered in Central, Hong Kong.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
New World Development Company reported revenue of HK$27.7B in FY2025 versus HK$68.5B in FY2021, a compound −20.2%/yr. Reported net income was −HK$15.3B in FY2025.
0017 screens 22% overvalued. Compare with Swiss Prime Site AG →
Peer Group
Real Estate - Diversified · 137 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Real Estate - Diversified median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Real Estate - Diversified stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 2, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Swiss Prime Site AG SPSN | CHF 129.20 | CHF 44.83 | -65% |
| Central Pattana Public Company CPN | 68.75 THB | 71.37 THB | +4% |
| Prestige Estates Projects Limited PRESTIGE | ₹1,733 | ₹645.21 | -63% |
| The Phoenix Mills Limited PHOENIXLTD | ₹2,076 | ₹701.74 | -66% |
| Umm Al Qura for Development and Construction Company 4325 | 16.39 SAR | 11.62 SAR | -29% |
| Fastighets AB BALDB | kr 50.42 | kr 70.70 | +40% |
| Hainan Airport Infrastructure Co 600515 | ¥2.89 | ¥0.3300 | -89% |
| Shenzhen Special Economic Zone Real Estate & Properties (Group) Co 000029 | ¥19.95 | ¥4.60 | -77% |
| Parque Arauco S.A PARAUCO | 3,940 CLP | 2,777 CLP | -30% |
| Corporación Inmobiliaria Vesta, S.A. VESTA | 59.57 MXN | 53.94 MXN | -9% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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