Venustech Group (002439) Fair Value & Analysis
Technology · CN · Market cap 15.8B CNY
Fair value as of: Jul 24, 2026
From 9 valuation models · updated 20 days ago
Share price +5.2% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 80% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥3.19). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (33/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥12.41 – ¥35.53 · fair‑value band ¥2.46 – ¥3.19 · the ¥14.07 price screens above the ¥2.83 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 24, 2026.
Analysis
Venustech Group (002439) currently trades at ¥14.07, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥2.83, implying the stock looks roughly 79.9% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 33/100 (below-average quality), in the Technology sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).
Over the trailing twelve months, Venustech Group generated revenue of 2.4B CNY at a net margin of -22.2%. Revenue grew 4.1% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -4.7%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of 1.9B CNY. Fundamentals as of Jul 24, 2026
Our scenario range runs from ¥2.46 (bear case) to ¥3.19 (bull case); at ¥14.07, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 21% below its 52-week high and 13% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at -50% fair-value upside, at -80%, 002439 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 9 models by family
Widest divergence: Asset-Based (¥6.00) versus Multiples (¥1.94). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 24, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 36 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 42
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Venustech Group Inc. provides network security products, trusted security management platforms, and specialized security services and solutions worldwide.
Full company description
Venustech Group Inc. provides network security products, trusted security management platforms, and specialized security services and solutions worldwide. It provides Venusense Traffic Anomaly Detection and Mitigation System, an anti-DDOS security defense system; NGFW; unified threat management products; web application firewall; application delivery controller products; unified security management platform; intrusion prevention system; industrial firewall; privilege access manager device; network access control products; and network traffic analysis products. The company also offers penetration test, vulnerability assessment, configuration verification services; security operation center; and threat intelligence center. It serves government, telecom carrie, financial service, industrial control, SME, rail transit, municipal utility, smart manufacturing, media, and technology industries. The company was formerly known as Beijing Venustech Inc. Venustech Group Inc. was founded in 1996 and is headquartered in Beijing, China.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Venustech Group reported revenue of ¥2.3B in FY2025 versus ¥4.4B in FY2021, a compound −14.6%/yr. Reported net income was −¥572M in FY2025.
of which total revenue +16.4 pp · buybacks/dilution −1.7 pp
Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
002439 screens 80% overvalued. Compare with Microsoft Corporation →
Peer Group
Software - Infrastructure · 373 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Software - Infrastructure median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Software - Infrastructure stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 24, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Microsoft Corporation MSFT | $384.00 | $274.17 | -29% |
| Oracle Corporation ORAC | C$9.08 | C$2.94 | -68% |
| Fortinet, Inc FTNT | $160.78 | $44.96 | -72% |
| Synopsys, Inc 1SNPS | €354.50 | €93.61 | -74% |
| Block, Inc XYZ | A$114.53 | A$70.69 | -38% |
| CoreWeave, Inc CRWV | $79.94 | $44.89 | -44% |
| Range Intelligent Computing Technology Group 300442 | ¥71.60 | ¥34.00 | -53% |
| Oracle Financial Services Software Limited OFSS | ₹11,651 | ₹5,821 | -50% |
| 360 Security Technology Inc 601360 | ¥9.64 | ¥5.05 | -48% |
| One97 Communications Limited PAYTM | ₹1,342 | ₹181.50 | -86% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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