Jinzi Ham Co Ltd (002515) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 23, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Jinzi Ham Co Ltd stock ¥1.32, price ¥6.16, upside -78.6%, quality 30 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
Fair value above price?No
Good quality?No
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 26, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥3.66 – ¥11.60 · fair‑value band ¥1.20 – ¥1.32 · the ¥6.16 price screens above the ¥1.32 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 26, 2026.
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Jinzi Ham Co.,Ltd. engages in the research and development, production, and sale of ham and meat products in China and internationally.
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It offers Parma, golden, Chinese, European fermented, and other ham products; sausages, braised meat, bacon, grilled sausage, XO Sauce, and other pure meat products; prepared meat products, including Ham and duck pot, ham stewed chicken, ham stewed pigeon, honey sauce fire square, golden and silver pig's trotter, pickled pork with preserved vegetables, crispy meat, Dongpo Meat, twice-cooked pork, etc.; and chilled and cut meat, as well as ham ice cream and biscuits.
The company primarily serves fresh food e-commerce, social e-commerce, food processing companies, chain restaurants, and other customers. Jinzi Ham Co.,Ltd. was founded in 1994 and is headquartered in Jinhua, China.
Stock analysis
Jinzi Ham Co Ltd (002515) currently trades at ¥6.16, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥1.32, 78.6% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of ¥1.56 per share, and 1 of the 14 models we run sit above the ¥6.16 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at ¥0.2900, and 13 of the 14 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: ¥1.20 (bear) to ¥1.32 (bull), the price of ¥6.16 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 30/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Jinzi Ham Co Ltd reported revenue of 317M CNY in FY2025 versus 506M CNY in FY2021, a compound −11.0%/yr. Reported net income was 25.3M CNY in FY2025, compounding −12.3%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 7.5B CNY (≈ $1.1B) Small · P/E ratio 911.0 · P/S ratio 72.7 · EPS (TTM) ¥−0.0100 · Dividend yield 0.2% · Net margin −1.9% · Return on equity −0.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.4%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 17 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 47% below its 52-week high and 15% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at −15% fair-value upside, at −79%, 002515 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
The price assumes far more growth than our models allow for, so the models scatter widely (¥0.2900 to ¥11.61). Read the Fair Value as a cautious anchor, not a price target; the Growth Forecast section shows what the price assumes.
Bear¥1.20Fair Value ¥1.32Bull¥1.32
Price ¥6.16 · Upside -78.6%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.8/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−7.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−10.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−14.9%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +5.4% a year
Revenue growth 18 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.1%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−15.8%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−16.0%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.2%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−16.0% vs −1.8%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.9% → 4%
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Food Distribution · 87 stocks
Beats the industry median on 1/11 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score30 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−78.6% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets0.9% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)−1.9% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months)−70.5% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)−19.5% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)0.2% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.00× · Lowest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Food Distribution median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)911.0× · Priciest 25%
P/B2.85× · Priciest 25%
P/S (12 months)24.76× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 45
FUTURE (revenue growth)0· sector 9
PAST (return on equity)0· sector 30
HEALTH (low debt)100· sector 94
DIVIDEND (yield)3· sector 66
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Jinzi Ham Co Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/002515
Frequently asked questions
Is Jinzi Ham Co Ltd (002515) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 26, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥1.32 versus a price of ¥6.16, about −79% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 002515?
Our model-based fair value for Jinzi Ham Co Ltd is ¥1.32 (as of Oct 26, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ¥6.16.
What is the quality score of 002515?
Jinzi Ham Co Ltd has a Quality Score of 30/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Jinzi Ham Co Ltd (002515)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ¥1.32 (as of Oct 26, 2026) from 14 valuation models. Cautious scenario ¥1.20, optimistic scenario ¥1.32. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Jinzi Ham Co Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ¥1.32, about −79% upside versus a price of ¥6.16 (overvalued). Cautious scenario ¥1.20, optimistic scenario ¥1.32. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Jinzi Ham Co Ltd (002515)?
Jinzi Ham Co Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 301M CNY (latest available figure, as of Oct 26, 2026).
Does Jinzi Ham Co Ltd pay a dividend?
Jinzi Ham Co Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of 0.16% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 26, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Jinzi Ham Co Ltd (002515)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Jinzi Ham Co Ltd it is ¥1.32 per share (as of Oct 26, 2026), against a price of ¥6.16. It is the blended result of 14 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Jinzi Ham Co Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 26, 2026, 002515 trades above its calculated fair value: price ¥6.16, fair value ¥1.32, a gap of about −79% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 002515?
No. The price is what the market pays today (¥6.16); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (¥1.32). For Jinzi Ham Co Ltd the two are ¥4.84 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Jinzi Ham Co Ltd worth?
The market values Jinzi Ham Co Ltd at about 7.5B CNY (market capitalisation, as of Oct 26, 2026). Per share that is ¥6.16; our models calculate a fair value of ¥1.32 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 002515?
Our models span a range for Jinzi Ham Co Ltd: cautious scenario ¥1.20, base ¥1.32, optimistic ¥1.32 per share (as of Oct 26, 2026, price ¥6.16). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Jinzi Ham Co Ltd (002515)?
Balance-sheet figures for Jinzi Ham Co Ltd (as of Oct 26, 2026): return on equity −0.2%, debt of 0.00 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 30/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 002515 from its 52-week high?
Jinzi Ham Co Ltd trades at ¥6.16, about 47% below its 52-week high of ¥11.60 and 15% above the low of ¥5.37 (as of Oct 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ¥1.32 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Jinzi Ham Co Ltd?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Sysco Corporation, US Foods Holding, Performance Food Group, Jerónimo Martins, SGPS, S.A, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Jinzi Ham Co Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 26, 2026: price ¥6.16, calculated fair value ¥1.32 (−79%), Quality Score 30/100, from 14 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 002515 calculated?
We run Jinzi Ham Co Ltd through 14 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ¥1.32, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 12.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Jinzi Ham Co Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Jinzi Ham Co Ltd (002515)?
The closing price on Oct 23, 2026 was ¥6.16. Our model-based fair value is ¥1.32, about −79% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Jinzi Ham Co Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥1.32). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (30/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. The models converge in a tight band (¥1.20 to ¥1.32), unusually little disagreement for a valuation.
Where does the earnings growth of Jinzi Ham Co Ltd (002515) come from?
Earnings per share at Jinzi Ham Co Ltd grew +6.5 % a year from 2013 to 2024. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +3.5 %, EBIT margin +2.7 %, tax rate +0.3 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −0.1 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Jinzi Ham Co Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Jinzi Ham Co Ltd (002515)?
The market capitalisation of Jinzi Ham Co Ltd is 7.5B CNY (≈ $1.1B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/E ratio of Jinzi Ham Co Ltd (002515)?
The price-to-earnings ratio of Jinzi Ham Co Ltd is 911.0 (as of Jun 16, 2026). Price to earnings: how many years of current profit you pay for the stock. A P/E of 10 means ten years of profit.
What is the P/S ratio of Jinzi Ham Co Ltd (002515)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Jinzi Ham Co Ltd is 72.7 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Jinzi Ham Co Ltd (002515)?
Earnings per share at Jinzi Ham Co Ltd are ¥−0.0100 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 911.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Jinzi Ham Co Ltd (002515)?
The dividend yield of Jinzi Ham Co Ltd is 0.2%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Jinzi Ham Co Ltd (002515)?
The net margin of Jinzi Ham Co Ltd is −1.9% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Jinzi Ham Co Ltd (002515)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Jinzi Ham Co Ltd is −0.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Jinzi Ham Co Ltd (002515)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Jinzi Ham Co Ltd is 1.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Jinzi Ham Co Ltd (002515)?
The operating margin of Jinzi Ham Co Ltd is −70.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Jinzi Ham Co Ltd (002515)?
Revenue at Jinzi Ham Co Ltd is growing −19.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg −10.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Jinzi Ham Co Ltd (002515)?
Earnings per share at Jinzi Ham Co Ltd are growing −50.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Jinzi Ham Co Ltd (002515) generate?
The free cash flow of Jinzi Ham Co Ltd is −203M CNY (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Jinzi Ham Co Ltd (002515) hold?
Jinzi Ham Co Ltd holds more cash than debt, 1.7B CNY net (fiscal year 2024). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Thin data
Oct 26, 2026