Shanghai Bairun Investment Holding (002568) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Defensive · CN · Market cap 20.3B CNY
Fair value as of: Jul 22, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 19 days ago
Share price +17.9% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 34% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥16.06). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (61/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 22, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥14.30 – ¥66.59 · fair‑value band ¥9.64 – ¥16.06 · the ¥19.48 price screens above the ¥12.85 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 22, 2026.
Analysis
Shanghai Bairun Investment Holding (002568) currently trades at ¥19.48, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥12.85, implying the stock looks roughly 34.0% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 61/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Shanghai Bairun Investment Holding generated revenue of 3.0B CNY at a net margin of 22.4%. Revenue grew 8.5% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 13.4%. Net debt stands at 335M CNY. Fundamentals as of Jul 22, 2026
Our scenario range runs from ¥9.64 (bear case) to ¥16.06 (bull case); at ¥19.48, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 33% below its 52-week high and 20% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at 6% fair-value upside, at -34%, 002568 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (¥20.69) versus Asset-Based (¥3.19). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 22, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 61 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 40
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Shanghai Bairun Investment Holding Group Co., Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the premixed cocktail business in China and internationally. It operates in two segments, Alcoholic Beverage, and Flavor and Fragrance.
Full company description
Shanghai Bairun Investment Holding Group Co., Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the premixed cocktail business in China and internationally. It operates in two segments, Alcoholic Beverage, and Flavor and Fragrance. The company offers ready-to-drink cocktails under the RIO brand name; spirits, including whisky, vodka, and gin under the Laizhou brand name; and flavors and fragrances under the BaiRun brand name. It exports its products. The company was formerly known as Shanghai Bairun Flavor & Fragrance Co., Ltd. and changed its name to Shanghai Bairun Investment Holding Group Co., Ltd. in December 2015. Shanghai Bairun Investment Holding Group Co., Ltd. was founded in 1997 and is headquartered in Shanghai, China.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Shanghai Bairun Investment Holding reported revenue of ¥2.9B in FY2025 versus ¥2.6B in FY2021, a compound +3.2%/yr. Reported net income was ¥637M in FY2025, compounding −1.1%/yr from FY2021.
002568 screens 34% overvalued. Compare with Kweichow Moutai Co →
Peer Group
Beverages - Wineries & Distilleries · 96 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Beverages - Wineries & Distilleries median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Beverages - Wineries & Distilleries stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 22, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kweichow Moutai Co 600519 | ¥1,251 | ¥1,238 | -1% |
| Diageo plc DEON | 1,487 MXN | 1,239 MXN | -17% |
| Wuliangye Yibin Co 000858 | ¥73.69 | ¥48.44 | -34% |
| Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co 600809 | ¥110.50 | ¥185.80 | +68% |
| Pernod Ricard SA RI | €65.24 | €76.68 | +18% |
| Luzhou Laojiao Co 000568 | ¥83.12 | ¥149.17 | +79% |
| Brown-Forman Corporation BFA | $26.60 | $28.15 | +6% |
| United Spirits Limited UNITDSPR | ₹1,376 | ₹440.56 | -68% |
| Thai Beverage Public Company Y92 | 0.4450 SGD | 0.6900 SGD | +55% |
| Jiangsu Yanghe Distillery Co 002304 | ¥38.08 | ¥27.82 | -27% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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