Guang Dong Qun Xing Toys Joint-Stockco.,Ltd. (002575) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · CN · Market cap 3.8B CNY
Fair value as of: Jul 22, 2026
From 13 valuation models · updated 19 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 22, 2026, revised from ¥0.9400 to ¥0.5500 (−41.5%) since Jun 25, 2026. Share price +12.1% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 89% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥0.6800). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (60/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 22, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥3.30 – ¥12.91 · fair‑value band ¥0.4200 – ¥0.6800 · the ¥5.20 price screens above the ¥0.5500 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 22, 2026.
Analysis
Guang Dong Qun Xing Toys Joint-Stockco.,Ltd. (002575) currently trades at ¥5.20, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥0.5500, implying the stock looks roughly 89.4% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 60/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).
Over the trailing twelve months, Guang Dong Qun Xing Toys Joint-Stockco.,Ltd. generated revenue of 462M CNY at a net margin of -2.7%. Revenue declined 11.6% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -1.7%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of 15.4M CNY. Fundamentals as of Jul 22, 2026
Our scenario range runs from ¥0.4200 (bear case) to ¥0.6800 (bull case); at ¥5.20, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 48% below its 52-week high, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 2% fair-value upside, at -89%, 002575 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 13 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth DCF (¥2.18) versus Dividend Discount (¥0.0100). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 22, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 62 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 21
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Guang Dong Qun Xing Toys Joint-Stockco.,Ltd. engages in the sales of alcohol in China. The company offers toys, baby carriages, trolleys, cribs, walkers, tricycles, baby carriages, luggage carts, bicycles, electric vehicles, bassinets, rocking chairs, and children's shakers; plastic products; and hardware products.
Full company description
Guang Dong Qun Xing Toys Joint-Stockco.,Ltd. engages in the sales of alcohol in China. The company offers toys, baby carriages, trolleys, cribs, walkers, tricycles, baby carriages, luggage carts, bicycles, electric vehicles, bassinets, rocking chairs, and children's shakers; plastic products; and hardware products. The company also engages in the animation software design, development, and production services; and waste plastic recycling and processing services. It also provides strategic consulting, industrial mergers and acquisitions consulting, financing consulting, and project investment feasibility analysis services; company-owned property leasing services; and entrepreneurial park operation services. The company was founded in 1996 and is based in Suzhou, China.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Guang Dong Qun Xing Toys Joint-Stockco.,Ltd. reported revenue of ¥470M in FY2025 versus ¥51.2M in FY2021, a compound +74.1%/yr. Reported net income was −¥26.4M in FY2025.
002575 screens 89% overvalued. Compare with ANTA Sports Products Limited →
Peer Group
Leisure · 192 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Leisure median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Leisure stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 22, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| ANTA Sports Products Limited 2020 | HK$74.15 | HK$119.29 | +61% |
| Pop Mart International Group 9992 | HK$160.20 | HK$227.30 | +42% |
| Amer Sports, Inc AS | $36.44 | $16.16 | -56% |
| Hasbro, Inc HAS | $81.55 | $83.38 | +2% |
| Life Time Group LTH | $42.15 | $16.15 | -62% |
| Acushnet Holdings GOLF | $114.78 | $37.79 | -67% |
| Li Ning Company 2331 | HK$14.80 | HK$29.26 | +98% |
| Benefit Systems S.A BFT | 5,255 PLN | 3,714 PLN | -29% |
| Ninebot Limited 689009 | ¥37.82 | ¥39.17 | +4% |
| Asmodee Group ASMDEEB | kr 145.70 | kr 41.90 | -71% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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