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Guangzhou Pearl River Piano Group (002678) Fair Value & Analysis

Consumer Cyclical · CN · Market cap 7.0B CNY

GP Guangzhou Pearl River Piano Group 002678 · SHE
Price¥4.47
Fair Value¥0.8900
Upside-80.1%
Quality39/100
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Weak Growth
Loss-making · -62.5% net margin
Low debt · negative free cash flow
Trails peers (3/10)
Narrow moat 5/100
Evidence: Low Range ¥0.5900 – ¥1.12 Share as image

Fair value as of: Jul 24, 2026

From 3 valuation models · updated 17 days ago

Share price +6.4% over the past month.

Below-average quality, and screening another 80% overvalued on our models.

What matters now

  • The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥1.12). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
  • Weak quality (39/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
  • The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
  • A fairly wide model range (¥0.5900 to ¥1.12) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

¥8.10 ¥3.33 Fair Value ¥0.8900 Feb 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 24, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range ¥3.33 – ¥8.10 · fair‑value band ¥0.5900 – ¥1.12 · the ¥4.47 price screens above the ¥0.8900 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 24, 2026.

Full chart & analysis →

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Analysis

Guangzhou Pearl River Piano Group (002678) currently trades at ¥4.47, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥0.8900, implying the stock looks roughly 80.1% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 39/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: low).

Over the trailing twelve months, Guangzhou Pearl River Piano Group generated revenue of 588M CNY at a net margin of -62.5%. Revenue grew 15.0% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -11.5%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of 611M CNY. Fundamentals as of Jul 24, 2026

Our scenario range runs from ¥0.5900 (bear case) to ¥1.12 (bull case); at ¥4.47, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 36% below its 52-week high and 4% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 2% fair-value upside, at -80%, 002678 screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model BearBaseBull Evidence
Highest evidence
Gordon GGM ¥0.0300 ¥0.0400 ¥0.0400 70
DDM Multi-Stage ¥0.0300 ¥0.0400 ¥0.0500 61
NCAV (Graham) ¥1.14 ¥1.53 ¥2.28 50
All 3 models by family
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM ¥0.0300 ¥0.0400 ¥0.0400 70
DDM Multi-Stage ¥0.0300 ¥0.0400 ¥0.0500 61
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) ¥1.14 ¥1.53 ¥2.28 50

Widest divergence: Asset-Based (¥1.53) versus Dividend Discount (¥0.0400). Highest evidence: Gordon GGM (70).

Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) 588M CNY
Revenue growth (YoY) +15.0%
Net margin -62.5%
Return on equity -11.5%
Free cash flow −261M CNY FY2025
Operating margin -34.0%
More key figures
EPS (TTM) ¥-0.2700
EPS growth (YoY) -50.0%
Net cash 611M CNY FY2024

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 24, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 39/100

Of which business quality 41 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 31

Profitability 0
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 17
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 0
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 89
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 67
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 61
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 20
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 14
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 93
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Guangzhou Pearl River Piano Group Co.,Ltd engages in the research and development, manufacturing, sales and service of piano and digital musical instrument products in China and internationally.

Full company description

Guangzhou Pearl River Piano Group Co.,Ltd engages in the research and development, manufacturing, sales and service of piano and digital musical instrument products in China and internationally. The company offers pianos, violins, digital pianos, strings, guitars, and wind instruments and folk music, as well as musical instrument accessories and music culture teaching materials. It is also involved in the art education and cultural media; radio, television, film and video recording production; house and venue rental and leasing; property management; and trading businesses. In addition, the company provides education consulting and professional technical services; and professional logistics of musical instruments, piano tuning, repair, rental, second-hand piano trading, piano playing teaching, and certification services. Further, it offers pianos under the Kayserburg, Ritmüller, Pearl River, and Pearl River Prodigy brand names. The company was founded in 1956 and is headquartered in Guangzhou, China. Guangzhou Pearl River Piano Group Co.,Ltd is a subsidiary of Guangzhou Urban Construction Investment Group Co., Ltd.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Guangzhou Pearl River Piano Group reported revenue of ¥570M in FY2025 versus ¥2.0B in FY2021, a compound −27.1%/yr. Reported net income was −¥374M in FY2025.

Growth Quality 0/100
Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
570M CNY
Latest YoY
−15.9%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y)
−30.0%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y)
−20.1%
Avg. growth/yr (16Y)
−2.4%
Revenue −27.1%/yr
FY21 ¥2.0B
FY22 ¥1.7B
FY23 ¥1.1B
FY24 ¥677M
FY25 ¥570M
Net income
FY21 ¥186M
FY22 ¥123M
FY23 ¥5.9M
FY24 −¥236M
FY25 −¥374M

002678 screens 80% overvalued. Compare with ANTA Sports Products Limited →

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Guangzhou Pearl River Piano Group Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/002678

Peer Group

Leisure · 192 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 39 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −80% · Bottom 25%
Return on assets -6% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM) -63% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM) -34% · Bottom 25%
Revenue growth 15% · Top 25%
Debt / equity 0.07× · Lower than median

Valuation Multiples vs Leisure median · lower = cheaper

P/B 0.34× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/S (TTM) 1.78× · Pricier than median

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 0 · sector 14
FUTURE 75 · sector 18
PAST 0 · sector 19
HEALTH 97 · sector 94
DIVIDEND 0 · sector 51

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Leisure stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 24, 2026).

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Pop Mart International Group 9992 HK$160.20 HK$227.30 +42%
Amer Sports, Inc AS $36.44 $16.16 -56%
Hasbro, Inc HAS $81.55 $83.38 +2%
Life Time Group LTH $42.15 $16.15 -62%
Acushnet Holdings GOLF $114.78 $37.79 -67%
Li Ning Company 2331 HK$14.80 HK$29.26 +98%
Benefit Systems S.A BFT 5,255 PLN 3,714 PLN -29%
Ninebot Limited 689009 ¥37.82 ¥39.17 +4%
Asmodee Group ASMDEEB kr 145.70 kr 41.90 -71%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Guangzhou Pearl River Piano Group (002678) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Jul 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥0.8900 versus a price of ¥4.47, about −80% (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 002678?
Our model-based fair value for Guangzhou Pearl River Piano Group is ¥0.8900 (as of Jul 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is ¥4.47.
What is the quality score of 002678?
Guangzhou Pearl River Piano Group has a Quality Score of 39/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Guangzhou Pearl River Piano Group (002678)?
Guangzhou Pearl River Piano Group reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 588M CNY (latest available figure, as of Jul 24, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of 002678?
The net profit margin of Guangzhou Pearl River Piano Group is about -62.5%, meaning it is currently running at a net loss. Based on the latest reported figures.

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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