Guangzhou Pearl River Piano Group (002678) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · CN · Market cap 7.0B CNY
Fair value as of: Jul 24, 2026
From 3 valuation models · updated 17 days ago
Share price +6.4% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 80% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥1.12). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (39/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
- The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
- A fairly wide model range (¥0.5900 to ¥1.12) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥3.33 – ¥8.10 · fair‑value band ¥0.5900 – ¥1.12 · the ¥4.47 price screens above the ¥0.8900 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 24, 2026.
Analysis
Guangzhou Pearl River Piano Group (002678) currently trades at ¥4.47, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥0.8900, implying the stock looks roughly 80.1% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 39/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: low).
Over the trailing twelve months, Guangzhou Pearl River Piano Group generated revenue of 588M CNY at a net margin of -62.5%. Revenue grew 15.0% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -11.5%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of 611M CNY. Fundamentals as of Jul 24, 2026
Our scenario range runs from ¥0.5900 (bear case) to ¥1.12 (bull case); at ¥4.47, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 36% below its 52-week high and 4% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 2% fair-value upside, at -80%, 002678 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 3 models by family
Widest divergence: Asset-Based (¥1.53) versus Dividend Discount (¥0.0400). Highest evidence: Gordon GGM (70).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 24, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 41 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 31
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Guangzhou Pearl River Piano Group Co.,Ltd engages in the research and development, manufacturing, sales and service of piano and digital musical instrument products in China and internationally.
Full company description
Guangzhou Pearl River Piano Group Co.,Ltd engages in the research and development, manufacturing, sales and service of piano and digital musical instrument products in China and internationally. The company offers pianos, violins, digital pianos, strings, guitars, and wind instruments and folk music, as well as musical instrument accessories and music culture teaching materials. It is also involved in the art education and cultural media; radio, television, film and video recording production; house and venue rental and leasing; property management; and trading businesses. In addition, the company provides education consulting and professional technical services; and professional logistics of musical instruments, piano tuning, repair, rental, second-hand piano trading, piano playing teaching, and certification services. Further, it offers pianos under the Kayserburg, Ritmüller, Pearl River, and Pearl River Prodigy brand names. The company was founded in 1956 and is headquartered in Guangzhou, China. Guangzhou Pearl River Piano Group Co.,Ltd is a subsidiary of Guangzhou Urban Construction Investment Group Co., Ltd.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Guangzhou Pearl River Piano Group reported revenue of ¥570M in FY2025 versus ¥2.0B in FY2021, a compound −27.1%/yr. Reported net income was −¥374M in FY2025.
002678 screens 80% overvalued. Compare with ANTA Sports Products Limited →
Peer Group
Leisure · 192 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Leisure median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Leisure stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 24, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| ANTA Sports Products Limited 2020 | HK$74.15 | HK$119.29 | +61% |
| Pop Mart International Group 9992 | HK$160.20 | HK$227.30 | +42% |
| Amer Sports, Inc AS | $36.44 | $16.16 | -56% |
| Hasbro, Inc HAS | $81.55 | $83.38 | +2% |
| Life Time Group LTH | $42.15 | $16.15 | -62% |
| Acushnet Holdings GOLF | $114.78 | $37.79 | -67% |
| Li Ning Company 2331 | HK$14.80 | HK$29.26 | +98% |
| Benefit Systems S.A BFT | 5,255 PLN | 3,714 PLN | -29% |
| Ninebot Limited 689009 | ¥37.82 | ¥39.17 | +4% |
| Asmodee Group ASMDEEB | kr 145.70 | kr 41.90 | -71% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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