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Guangzhou Pearl River Piano Group Co Ltd (002678) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 22, 2026: fair value of Guangzhou Pearl River Piano Group Co Ltd ¥0.89, price ¥4.49, upside -80.2%, quality 39 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? No
  3. Add to watchlist

Consumer Cyclical · CN · ISIN CNE100001DS9

GP Thin data Sep 23, 2026

Guangzhou Pearl River Piano Group Co Ltd

002678 · SHE

Weakest SetupStrongly overvalued and low quality.

!Fair value ¥0.8900 · Strongly overvalued (−80%)
!Quality 39/100
!Weak Growth (revenue 5y −20.1 %/yr)
!Loss-making · -62.5% net margin (TTM)
!Low debt · negative free cash flow
!Trails peers (3/11)
!Narrow moat 5/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
!Weak on dividend: 2 out of 100
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

¥8.10 ¥3.33 Fair Value ¥0.8900 Apr 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range ¥3.33 – ¥8.10 · fair‑value band ¥0.5900 – ¥1.12 · the ¥4.49 price screens above the ¥0.8900 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

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Company profile

Guangzhou Pearl River Piano Group Co.,Ltd engages in the research and development, manufacturing, sales and service of piano and digital musical instrument products in China and internationally.

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Guangzhou Pearl River Piano Group Co.,Ltd engages in the research and development, manufacturing, sales and service of piano and digital musical instrument products in China and internationally. The company offers pianos, violins, digital pianos, strings, guitars, and wind instruments and folk music, as well as musical instrument accessories and music culture teaching materials. It is also involved in the art education and cultural media; radio, television, film and video recording production; house and venue rental and leasing; property management; and trading businesses. In addition, the company provides education consulting and professional technical services; and professional logistics of musical instruments, piano tuning, repair, rental, second-hand piano trading, piano playing teaching, and certification services. Further, it offers pianos under the Kayserburg, Ritmüller, Pearl River, and Pearl River Prodigy brand names. The company was founded in 1956 and is headquartered in Guangzhou, China. Guangzhou Pearl River Piano Group Co.,Ltd is a subsidiary of Guangzhou Urban Construction Investment Group Co., Ltd.

Stock analysis

Guangzhou Pearl River Piano Group Co Ltd (002678) currently trades at ¥4.49, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥0.8900, implying the stock looks roughly 404.5% overvalued today.

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Valuation

How firm this estimate is: it rests on 3 models at a data quality of 94/100, which puts the evidence level at low.

Scenario range: ¥0.5900 (bear) to ¥1.12 (bull), the price of ¥4.49 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 39/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.

Guangzhou Pearl River Piano Group Co Ltd reported revenue of 570M CNY in FY2025 versus 2.0B CNY in FY2021, a compound −27.1%/yr. Reported net income was −374M CNY in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap 7.0B CNY (≈ $1.1B) · P/S ratio 12.0 · EPS (TTM) ¥−0.2700 · Dividend yield 0.1% · Net margin −65.6% · Return on equity −11.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) −1.3% · Operating margin −34.0%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 22 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 34% below its 52-week high and 15% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 46% fair-value upside, at −80%, 002678 screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear ¥0.5900 Fair Value ¥0.8900 Bull ¥1.12
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
Gordon GGM ¥0.0300 ¥0.0400 ¥0.0400 69
DDM Multi-Stage ¥0.0300 ¥0.0400 ¥0.0500 67
NCAV (Graham) ¥1.14 ¥1.53 ¥2.28 54
All 3 models by family
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM ¥0.0300 ¥0.0400 ¥0.0400 69
DDM Multi-Stage ¥0.0300 ¥0.0400 ¥0.0500 67
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) ¥1.14 ¥1.53 ¥2.28 54

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 39/100

Of which business quality 41 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 33

Profitability 0
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 17
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 0
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 89
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 67
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 59
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 23
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 21
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 93
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 0/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−15.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−30.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−20.1%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −9.0% a year
Revenue growth 16 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−2.4%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
11.0% (2020) → −47.3% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

002678 screens 405% overvalued. Compare with Pop Mart International Group →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Leisure · 190 stocks

Beats the industry median on 3/10 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 39 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −80% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets −6% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM) −63% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM) −34% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 15% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM) 0.1% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.07× · Below median

Valuation Multiplesvs Leisure median · lower = cheaper

P/B 0.34× · Cheapest 25%
P/S (TTM) 1.79× · Pricier than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 45
FUTURE (revenue growth)75 · sector 14
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 19
HEALTH (low debt)97 · sector 94
DIVIDEND (yield)2 · sector 57

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

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Li Ning Company 2331 HK$12.36 HK$29.61 +140%
Mattel, Inc MAT $13.21 $21.24 +61%
Planet Fitness, Inc PLNT $42.60 $62.04 +46%
Technogym S.p.A TGYM €12.92 €14.21 +10%

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Guangzhou Pearl River Piano Group Co Ltd · Fair Value
¥0.8900 −405%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Guangzhou Pearl River Piano Group Co Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/002678

Frequently asked questions

Is Guangzhou Pearl River Piano Group Co Ltd (002678) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥0.8900 versus a price of ¥4.49, about −80% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 002678?
Our model-based fair value for Guangzhou Pearl River Piano Group Co Ltd is ¥0.8900 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ¥4.49.
What is the quality score of 002678?
Guangzhou Pearl River Piano Group Co Ltd has a Quality Score of 39/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Guangzhou Pearl River Piano Group Co Ltd (002678)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ¥0.8900 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 3 valuation models. Cautious scenario ¥0.5900, optimistic scenario ¥1.12. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Guangzhou Pearl River Piano Group Co Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ¥0.8900, about −80% upside versus a price of ¥4.49 (overvalued). Cautious scenario ¥0.5900, optimistic scenario ¥1.12. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Guangzhou Pearl River Piano Group Co Ltd (002678)?
Guangzhou Pearl River Piano Group Co Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 588M CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
Does Guangzhou Pearl River Piano Group Co Ltd pay a dividend?
Guangzhou Pearl River Piano Group Co Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.08% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 23, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Guangzhou Pearl River Piano Group Co Ltd (002678)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Guangzhou Pearl River Piano Group Co Ltd it is ¥0.8900 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of ¥4.49. It is the blended result of 3 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Guangzhou Pearl River Piano Group Co Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, 002678 trades above its calculated fair value: price ¥4.49, fair value ¥0.8900, a gap of about −80% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 002678?
No. The price is what the market pays today (¥4.49); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (¥0.8900). For Guangzhou Pearl River Piano Group Co Ltd the two are ¥3.60 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Guangzhou Pearl River Piano Group Co Ltd worth?
The market values Guangzhou Pearl River Piano Group Co Ltd at about 7.0B CNY (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is ¥4.49; our models calculate a fair value of ¥0.8900 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 002678?
Our models span a range for Guangzhou Pearl River Piano Group Co Ltd: cautious scenario ¥0.5900, base ¥0.8900, optimistic ¥1.12 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price ¥4.49). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Guangzhou Pearl River Piano Group Co Ltd (002678)?
Balance-sheet figures for Guangzhou Pearl River Piano Group Co Ltd (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity −11.5%, debt of 0.07 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 39/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 002678 from its 52-week high?
Guangzhou Pearl River Piano Group Co Ltd trades at ¥4.49, about 34% below its 52-week high of ¥6.81 and 15% above the low of ¥3.92 (as of Sep 22, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ¥0.8900 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Guangzhou Pearl River Piano Group Co Ltd?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Pop Mart International Group, Amer Sports, Inc, Hasbro, Inc, Life Time Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Guangzhou Pearl River Piano Group Co Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price ¥4.49, calculated fair value ¥0.8900 (−80%), Quality Score 39/100, from 3 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 002678 calculated?
We run Guangzhou Pearl River Piano Group Co Ltd through 3 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ¥0.8900, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Guangzhou Pearl River Piano Group Co Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Guangzhou Pearl River Piano Group Co Ltd (002678)?
The closing price on Sep 22, 2026 was ¥4.49. Our model-based fair value is ¥0.8900, about −80% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Guangzhou Pearl River Piano Group Co Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥1.12). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (39/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range (¥0.5900 to ¥1.12) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Guangzhou Pearl River Piano Group Co Ltd (002678) come from?
Earnings per share at Guangzhou Pearl River Piano Group Co Ltd grew −11.7 % a year from 2013 to 2024. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share −2.1 %, EBIT margin −9.4 %, tax rate +0.5 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −0.9 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.

Key figures of Guangzhou Pearl River Piano Group Co Ltd

How large is the market capitalisation of Guangzhou Pearl River Piano Group Co Ltd (002678)?
The market capitalisation of Guangzhou Pearl River Piano Group Co Ltd is 7.0B CNY (≈ $1.1B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Guangzhou Pearl River Piano Group Co Ltd (002678)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Guangzhou Pearl River Piano Group Co Ltd is 12.0 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Guangzhou Pearl River Piano Group Co Ltd (002678)?
Earnings per share at Guangzhou Pearl River Piano Group Co Ltd are ¥−0.2700. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Guangzhou Pearl River Piano Group Co Ltd (002678)?
The dividend yield of Guangzhou Pearl River Piano Group Co Ltd is 0.1%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Guangzhou Pearl River Piano Group Co Ltd (002678)?
The net margin of Guangzhou Pearl River Piano Group Co Ltd is −65.6% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Guangzhou Pearl River Piano Group Co Ltd (002678)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Guangzhou Pearl River Piano Group Co Ltd is −11.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Guangzhou Pearl River Piano Group Co Ltd (002678)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Guangzhou Pearl River Piano Group Co Ltd is −1.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Guangzhou Pearl River Piano Group Co Ltd (002678)?
The operating margin of Guangzhou Pearl River Piano Group Co Ltd is −34.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Guangzhou Pearl River Piano Group Co Ltd (002678)?
Revenue at Guangzhou Pearl River Piano Group Co Ltd is growing +15.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg −30.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Guangzhou Pearl River Piano Group Co Ltd (002678)?
Earnings per share at Guangzhou Pearl River Piano Group Co Ltd are growing −50.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Guangzhou Pearl River Piano Group Co Ltd (002678) generate?
The free cash flow of Guangzhou Pearl River Piano Group Co Ltd is −261M CNY (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Guangzhou Pearl River Piano Group Co Ltd (002678) hold?
Guangzhou Pearl River Piano Group Co Ltd holds more cash than debt, 611M CNY net (fiscal year 2024). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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