Guangdong Hongda Holdings (002683) Fair Value & Analysis
Basic Materials · CN · Market cap 23.2B CNY
Fair value as of: Jul 22, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 19 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 22, 2026, revised from ¥23.87 to ¥21.41 (−10.3%) since Jun 25, 2026. Share price −3.8% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 24% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- Solid but not exceptional quality (51/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- A fairly wide model range (¥16.06 to ¥30.53) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 22, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥13.39 – ¥53.26 · fair‑value band ¥16.06 – ¥30.53 · the ¥28.18 price screens above the ¥21.41 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 22, 2026.
Analysis
Guangdong Hongda Holdings (002683) currently trades at ¥28.18, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥21.41, implying the stock looks roughly 24.0% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 51/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).
Over the trailing twelve months, Guangdong Hongda Holdings generated revenue of 21.1B CNY at a net margin of 4.6%. Revenue grew 18.8% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 11.7%. Net debt stands at 8.3B CNY. Fundamentals as of Jul 22, 2026
Our scenario range runs from ¥16.06 (bear case) to ¥30.53 (bull case); at ¥28.18, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 48% below its 52-week high, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at -58% fair-value upside, at -24%, 002683 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth DCF (¥41.69) versus Asset-Based (¥6.19). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 22, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 51 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 26
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Guangdong Hongda Holdings Group Co., Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, provides mining and civil explosives services in China and internationally. The company operates through three segments: Mining Engineering Services; Production and Sales of Civil Explosives; and Defense Equipment.
Full company description
Guangdong Hongda Holdings Group Co., Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, provides mining and civil explosives services in China and internationally. The company operates through three segments: Mining Engineering Services; Production and Sales of Civil Explosives; and Defense Equipment. It engages in large and medium-sized open-pit mines, underground mines, and integrated mining operations, including geological exploration, scheme design and optimization, mine construction, mining, beneficiation, environmental remediation, and overall mine operation and management; and offers value-added services, such as mixed explosives, new energy equipment, mining development consulting, and investment and financing scheme design and optimization. The company is also involved in the research, development, production, and sale of fixed-wire and mixed explosives, as well as detonating devices; defense equipment comprising traditional ammunition, weaponry, aerospace components, and HMX products; and energy and chemical products, which include ammonium nitrate, urea, compound fertilizer, melamine, and nitrocellulose. In addition, it provides LNG products and natural gas pipeline transportation services. The company was formerly known as Guangdong Hongda Blasting Co., Ltd. and changed its name to Guangdong Hongda Holdings Group Co., Ltd. in January 2022. Guangdong Hongda Holdings Group Co., Ltd. was founded in 1988 and is headquartered in Guangzhou, China.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Guangdong Hongda Holdings reported revenue of ¥20.3B in FY2025 versus ¥8.5B in FY2021, a compound +24.2%/yr. Reported net income was ¥957M in FY2025, compounding +18.8%/yr from FY2021.
002683 screens 24% overvalued. Compare with Linde plc →
Peer Group
Specialty Chemicals · 676 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Specialty Chemicals median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 45/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Specialty Chemicals stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 22, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Linde plc LIN | $489.98 | $222.03 | -55% |
| Nan Ya Plastics Corporation 1303 | 181.50 TWD | 255.83 TWD | +41% |
| Wanhua Chemical Group 600309 | ¥70.04 | ¥68.03 | -3% |
| Novozymes A/S NSISB | kr 428.20 | kr 179.66 | -58% |
| Asian Paints Limited ASIANPAINT | ₹2,689 | ₹668.81 | -75% |
| Solar Industries India Limited SOLARINDS | ₹18,236 | ₹2,793 | -85% |
| Pidilite Industries Limited PIDILITIND | ₹1,560 | ₹351.84 | -77% |
| PT Chandra Asri Pacific Tbk TPIA | 1,805 IDR | 2,888 IDR | +60% |
| Linde India Limited LINDEINDIA | ₹7,115 | ₹757.93 | -89% |
| Berger Paints India Limited BERGEPAINT | ₹493.70 | ₹164.29 | -67% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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