EN DE

Guangdong Hongda Holdings (002683) Fair Value & Analysis

Basic Materials · CN · Market cap 23.2B CNY

GH Guangdong Hongda Holdings 002683 · SHE
Price¥28.18
Fair Value¥21.41
Upside-24.0%
Quality51/100
Watch Guangdong Hongda Holdings for free, get notified when fair value or trend changes. Watch for free
Mixed Growth
Thin margins · 4.6% net margin
Moderate debt · generates free cash flow
2.12% dividend yield
Ranks above peers (9/14)
Narrow moat 43/100
Evidence: Medium Range ¥16.06 – ¥30.53 Share as image

Fair value as of: Jul 22, 2026

From 26 valuation models · updated 19 days ago

Fair value updated Jul 22, 2026, revised from ¥23.87 to ¥21.41 (−10.3%) since Jun 25, 2026. Share price −3.8% over the past month.

A solid business, but screening 24% overvalued on our models.

What matters now

  • Solid but not exceptional quality (51/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
  • A fairly wide model range (¥16.06 to ¥30.53) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Share this valuation: 𝕏 WhatsApp

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

¥53.26 ¥13.39 Fair Value ¥21.41 Feb 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 22, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range ¥13.39 – ¥53.26 · fair‑value band ¥16.06 – ¥30.53 · the ¥28.18 price screens above the ¥21.41 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 22, 2026.

Full chart & analysis →

Which stocks are undervalued right now? Check free Discover now →

Analysis

Guangdong Hongda Holdings (002683) currently trades at ¥28.18, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥21.41, implying the stock looks roughly 24.0% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 51/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).

Over the trailing twelve months, Guangdong Hongda Holdings generated revenue of 21.1B CNY at a net margin of 4.6%. Revenue grew 18.8% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 11.7%. Net debt stands at 8.3B CNY. Fundamentals as of Jul 22, 2026

Our scenario range runs from ¥16.06 (bear case) to ¥30.53 (bull case); at ¥28.18, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 48% below its 52-week high, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at -58% fair-value upside, at -24%, 002683 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model BearBaseBull Evidence
Highest evidence
Growth DCF ¥19.73 ¥41.69 ¥84.48 80
Residual Income ¥8.94 ¥11.02 ¥23.87 76
Rev-Margin DCF ¥21.55 ¥48.47 ¥89.41 74
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF ¥21.02 ¥37.08 ¥84.88 38
Owner Earnings ¥15.09 ¥39.58 ¥90.98 31
5Y Revenue Exit ¥21.55 ¥44.26 ¥89.32 39
5Y EBITDA Exit ¥25.36 ¥52.37 ¥102.56 41
5Y P/E Exit ¥14.34 ¥32.80 ¥56.54 38
10Y Revenue Exit ¥20.35 ¥49.48 ¥81.08 36
10Y EBITDA Exit ¥24.07 ¥56.89 ¥118.53 37
10Y P/E Exit ¥16.25 ¥35.43 ¥68.26 35
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd ¥8.57 ¥59.74 ¥83.83 54
Lynch FV ¥18.68 ¥26.68 ¥34.68 50
PEG = 1.0 ¥18.68 ¥26.68 ¥34.68 46
EPV ¥17.61 ¥21.23 ¥24.40 59
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM ¥5.92 ¥12.31 ¥19.52 70
DDM Multi-Stage ¥5.92 ¥10.38 ¥12.92 61
Multiples
P/E Multiple ¥16.06 ¥21.41 ¥26.77 63
P/S Multiple ¥16.06 ¥21.41 ¥26.77 58
P/B Multiple ¥16.06 ¥21.41 ¥26.77 55
EV/EBIT ¥24.05 ¥33.43 ¥42.82 53
EV/EBITDA ¥27.35 ¥37.84 ¥48.32 54
EV/Revenue ¥20.30 ¥30.75 ¥41.21 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) ¥4.62 ¥6.19 ¥9.24 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF ¥19.73 ¥41.69 ¥84.48 80
Rev-Margin DCF ¥21.55 ¥48.47 ¥89.41 74
Economic Profit
Residual Income ¥8.94 ¥11.02 ¥23.87 76
ROIC Compounder ¥23.06 ¥37.04 ¥48.64 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E ¥23.10 ¥33.00 ¥42.90 68

Widest divergence: Growth DCF (¥41.69) versus Asset-Based (¥6.19). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) 21.1B CNY
Revenue growth (YoY) +18.8%
Net margin 4.6%
Return on equity 11.7%
Free cash flow 1.2B CNY FY2025
P/E ratio 23.9
More key figures
Operating margin 7.1%
EPS (TTM) ¥1.28
Dividend yield 2.1%
EPS growth (YoY) +10.6%
Net debt 8.3B CNY FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 22, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 51/100

Of which business quality 51 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 26

Profitability 35
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 48
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 52
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 48
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 50
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 63
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 11
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 9
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 79
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Guangdong Hongda Holdings Group Co., Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, provides mining and civil explosives services in China and internationally. The company operates through three segments: Mining Engineering Services; Production and Sales of Civil Explosives; and Defense Equipment.

Full company description

Guangdong Hongda Holdings Group Co., Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, provides mining and civil explosives services in China and internationally. The company operates through three segments: Mining Engineering Services; Production and Sales of Civil Explosives; and Defense Equipment. It engages in large and medium-sized open-pit mines, underground mines, and integrated mining operations, including geological exploration, scheme design and optimization, mine construction, mining, beneficiation, environmental remediation, and overall mine operation and management; and offers value-added services, such as mixed explosives, new energy equipment, mining development consulting, and investment and financing scheme design and optimization. The company is also involved in the research, development, production, and sale of fixed-wire and mixed explosives, as well as detonating devices; defense equipment comprising traditional ammunition, weaponry, aerospace components, and HMX products; and energy and chemical products, which include ammonium nitrate, urea, compound fertilizer, melamine, and nitrocellulose. In addition, it provides LNG products and natural gas pipeline transportation services. The company was formerly known as Guangdong Hongda Blasting Co., Ltd. and changed its name to Guangdong Hongda Holdings Group Co., Ltd. in January 2022. Guangdong Hongda Holdings Group Co., Ltd. was founded in 1988 and is headquartered in Guangzhou, China.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Guangdong Hongda Holdings reported revenue of ¥20.3B in FY2025 versus ¥8.5B in FY2021, a compound +24.2%/yr. Reported net income was ¥957M in FY2025, compounding +18.8%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 77/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
20.3B CNY
Latest YoY
+48.8%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y)
+25.9%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y)
+26.0%
Avg. growth/yr (20Y)
+25.0%
Revenue +24.2%/yr
FY21 ¥8.5B
FY22 ¥10.2B
FY23 ¥11.6B
FY24 ¥13.7B
FY25 ¥20.3B
Net income +18.8%/yr
FY21 ¥480M
FY22 ¥561M
FY23 ¥716M
FY24 ¥898M
FY25 ¥957M

002683 screens 24% overvalued. Compare with Linde plc →

Share or link this analysis
For bloggers & editors: embed code + live data

For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.

Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Guangdong Hongda Holdings Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/002683

Peer Group

Specialty Chemicals · 676 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 51 · Below median
Fair Value upside −24% · Above median
Return on equity (TTM) 12% · Top 25%
Return on assets 4% · Above median
Net margin (TTM) 5% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM) 7% · Below median
Revenue growth 19% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM) 2.1% · Above median
Debt / equity 0.99× · Higher than 75% of peers

Valuation Multiples vs Specialty Chemicals median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 23.9× · Cheaper than median
P/B 3.30× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/S (TTM) 1.10× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF 2.9× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA 8.4× · Cheaper than median

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 1 · sector 0
FUTURE 94 · sector 19
PAST 47 · sector 23
HEALTH 51 · sector 95
DIVIDEND 42 · sector 25

Insider activity: 45/100

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Specialty Chemicals stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 22, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Linde plc LIN $489.98 $222.03 -55%
Nan Ya Plastics Corporation 1303 181.50 TWD 255.83 TWD +41%
Wanhua Chemical Group 600309 ¥70.04 ¥68.03 -3%
Novozymes A/S NSISB kr 428.20 kr 179.66 -58%
Asian Paints Limited ASIANPAINT ₹2,689 ₹668.81 -75%
Solar Industries India Limited SOLARINDS ₹18,236 ₹2,793 -85%
Pidilite Industries Limited PIDILITIND ₹1,560 ₹351.84 -77%
PT Chandra Asri Pacific Tbk TPIA 1,805 IDR 2,888 IDR +60%
Linde India Limited LINDEINDIA ₹7,115 ₹757.93 -89%
Berger Paints India Limited BERGEPAINT ₹493.70 ₹164.29 -67%

Compare Guangdong Hongda Holdings with another stock

Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.

Free, no sign-up

Explore undervalued stocks

More undervalued Basic Materials stocks →

All undervalued stocks TechnologyFinancial ServicesHealthcareConsumer CyclicalConsumer DefensiveCommunication ServicesIndustrialsEnergyBasic MaterialsReal EstateUtilities Deeply Undervalued StocksUndervalued Blue-Chip StocksUndervalued Small-Cap StocksUndervalued Dividend Stocks

Frequently asked questions

Is Guangdong Hongda Holdings (002683) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Jul 22, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥21.41 versus a price of ¥28.18, about −24% (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 002683?
Our model-based fair value for Guangdong Hongda Holdings is ¥21.41 (as of Jul 22, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is ¥28.18.
What is the quality score of 002683?
Guangdong Hongda Holdings has a Quality Score of 51/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Guangdong Hongda Holdings (002683)?
Guangdong Hongda Holdings reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 21.1B CNY (latest available figure, as of Jul 22, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of 002683?
The net profit margin of Guangdong Hongda Holdings is about 4.6%, meaning it keeps roughly 4.6% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Guangdong Hongda Holdings pay a dividend?
Guangdong Hongda Holdings currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.12% relative to its recent price (as of Jul 22, 2026).

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

14 days Pro free · no card

Track Guangdong Hongda Holdings and try Pro for 14 days

One email gets you 14 days of full Pro (review alerts, the 35,000+ stock screener, the diversification check) plus the monthly Top-25 report of the most undervalued quality stocks. No card, cancel anytime.

Zero risk: nothing is ever charged. After 14 days you decide whether to stay.