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Qingdao Gon Technology Co (002768) Fair Value & Analysis

Basic Materials · CN · Market cap 23.2B CNY

QG Qingdao Gon Technology Co 002768 · SHE
Price¥58.50
Fair Value¥52.73
Upside-9.9%
Quality50/100
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Expensive Growth
Thin margins · 4.4% net margin
Moderate debt · negative free cash flow
0.66% dividend yield
Mixed vs. peers (7/13)
Narrow moat 41/100
Evidence: Medium Range ¥39.54 – ¥65.91 Share as image

Fair value as of: Jul 22, 2026

From 17 valuation models · updated 19 days ago

Fair value updated Jul 22, 2026, revised from ¥53.42 to ¥52.73 (−1.3%) since Jun 25, 2026. Share price +0.9% over the past month.

A solid business, currently priced close to our fair value.

What matters now

  • The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension.
  • Our model range runs from ¥39.54 (bear) to ¥65.91 (bull), base ¥52.73. The closer the price sits to the lower half, the larger the margin of safety.
  • Quality 50/100 (solid quality) with medium evidence: read the verdict with care.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

¥77.67 ¥16.55 Fair Value ¥52.73 Feb 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 22, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range ¥16.55 – ¥77.67 · fair‑value band ¥39.54 – ¥65.91 · the ¥58.50 price screens above the ¥52.73 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 22, 2026.

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Analysis

Qingdao Gon Technology Co (002768) currently trades at ¥58.50, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥52.73, implying the stock looks roughly 9.9% fairly valued today. The Quality Score stands at 50/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).

Over the trailing twelve months, Qingdao Gon Technology Co generated revenue of 22.2B CNY at a net margin of 4.4%. Revenue grew 21.9% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 12.3%. Net debt stands at 1.2B CNY. Fundamentals as of Jul 22, 2026

Our scenario range runs from ¥39.54 (bear case) to ¥65.91 (bull case); at ¥58.50, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 25% below its 52-week high and 136% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at -58% fair-value upside, at -10%, 002768 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model BearBaseBull Evidence
Highest evidence
Residual Income ¥20.96 ¥27.68 ¥80.30 76
ROIC Compounder ¥55.33 ¥88.54 ¥109.05 72
Gordon GGM ¥8.05 ¥16.74 ¥26.56 70
All 17 models by family
DCF Models
Owner Earnings ¥36.97 ¥82.22 ¥177.20 31
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd ¥21.09 ¥147.08 ¥206.41 54
Lynch FV ¥73.69 ¥105.27 ¥136.85 50
PEG = 1.0 ¥73.69 ¥105.27 ¥136.85 46
EPV ¥40.38 ¥46.86 ¥52.53 59
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM ¥8.05 ¥16.74 ¥26.56 70
DDM Multi-Stage ¥8.05 ¥14.12 ¥17.57 61
Multiples
P/E Multiple ¥39.54 ¥52.73 ¥65.91 63
P/S Multiple ¥39.54 ¥52.73 ¥65.91 58
P/B Multiple ¥39.54 ¥52.73 ¥65.91 55
EV/EBIT ¥49.13 ¥65.00 ¥80.88 53
EV/EBITDA ¥44.90 ¥59.37 ¥73.83 54
EV/Revenue ¥42.78 ¥60.47 ¥78.16 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) ¥10.57 ¥14.16 ¥21.13 50
Economic Profit
Residual Income ¥20.96 ¥27.68 ¥80.30 76
ROIC Compounder ¥55.33 ¥88.54 ¥109.05 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E ¥91.10 ¥130.15 ¥169.19 68

Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (¥130.15) versus Dividend Discount (¥14.12). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).

Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) 22.2B CNY
Revenue growth (YoY) +21.9%
Net margin 4.4%
Return on equity 12.3%
Free cash flow −109K CNY FY2025
P/E ratio 21.0
More key figures
Operating margin 6.7%
EPS (TTM) ¥3.68
Dividend yield 0.7%
EPS growth (YoY) +121%
Net debt 1.2B CNY FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 22, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 50/100

Of which business quality 49 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 63

Profitability 45
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 59
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 13
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 62
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 52
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 36
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 71
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 82
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 76
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Qingdao Gon Technology Co., Ltd. engages in the research, development, production, and sales of plastic raw materials and products in the People's Republic of China. The company operates through New Chemical Materials; and Health and Wellness segments.

Full company description

Qingdao Gon Technology Co., Ltd. engages in the research, development, production, and sales of plastic raw materials and products in the People's Republic of China. The company operates through New Chemical Materials; and Health and Wellness segments. The company's products include green petrochemicals, organic polymer modified materials, and organic polymer composites, as well as monomers, synthetic resins, and polymer modified materials/composite materials for various applications, such as home appliances, automotive, new energy, consumer electronics, home building materials, communication, packaging, healthcare, and biodegradable materials. It is also involved in the research, development, production, and sales of gelatin, collagen, empty capsules, and B2C series products. Qingdao Gon Technology Co., Ltd. was incorporated in 2000 and is headquartered in Qingdao, China.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Qingdao Gon Technology Co reported revenue of ¥21.3B in FY2025 versus ¥9.8B in FY2021, a compound +21.5%/yr. Reported net income was ¥841M in FY2025, compounding +7.0%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
21.3B CNY
Latest YoY
+10.6%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y)
+16.6%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y)
+24.2%
Avg. growth/yr (14Y)
+33.1%
Revenue +21.5%/yr
FY21 ¥9.8B
FY22 ¥13.4B
FY23 ¥17.4B
FY24 ¥19.2B
FY25 ¥21.3B
Net income +7.0%/yr
FY21 ¥643M
FY22 ¥662M
FY23 ¥466M
FY24 ¥676M
FY25 ¥841M

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Qingdao Gon Technology Co Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/002768

Peer Group

Specialty Chemicals · 676 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 50 · Below median
Fair Value upside −10% · Above median
Return on equity (TTM) 12% · Top 25%
Return on assets 4% · Above median
Net margin (TTM) 4% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM) 7% · Below median
Revenue growth 22% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM) 0.7% · Below median
Debt / equity 0.50× · Higher than 75% of peers

Valuation Multiples vs Specialty Chemicals median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 21.0× · Cheaper than median
P/B 4.05× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/S (TTM) 1.05× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA 13.8× · Pricier than median

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 20 · sector 0
FUTURE 100 · sector 19
PAST 49 · sector 23
HEALTH 75 · sector 95
DIVIDEND 13 · sector 25

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Specialty Chemicals stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 22, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Linde plc LIN $489.98 $222.03 -55%
Nan Ya Plastics Corporation 1303 181.50 TWD 255.83 TWD +41%
Wanhua Chemical Group 600309 ¥70.04 ¥68.03 -3%
Novozymes A/S NSISB kr 428.20 kr 179.66 -58%
Asian Paints Limited ASIANPAINT ₹2,689 ₹668.81 -75%
Solar Industries India Limited SOLARINDS ₹18,236 ₹2,793 -85%
Pidilite Industries Limited PIDILITIND ₹1,560 ₹351.84 -77%
PT Chandra Asri Pacific Tbk TPIA 1,805 IDR 2,888 IDR +60%
Linde India Limited LINDEINDIA ₹7,115 ₹757.93 -89%
Berger Paints India Limited BERGEPAINT ₹493.70 ₹164.29 -67%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Qingdao Gon Technology Co (002768) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Jul 22, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥52.73 versus a price of ¥58.50, about −10% (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of 002768?
Our model-based fair value for Qingdao Gon Technology Co is ¥52.73 (as of Jul 22, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is ¥58.50.
What is the quality score of 002768?
Qingdao Gon Technology Co has a Quality Score of 50/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Qingdao Gon Technology Co (002768)?
Qingdao Gon Technology Co reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 22.2B CNY (latest available figure, as of Jul 22, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of 002768?
The net profit margin of Qingdao Gon Technology Co is about 4.4%, meaning it keeps roughly 4.4% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Qingdao Gon Technology Co pay a dividend?
Qingdao Gon Technology Co currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.66% relative to its recent price (as of Jul 22, 2026).

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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