Hubei Kailong Chemical Group (002783) Fair Value & Analysis
Basic Materials · CN · Market cap 3.7B CNY
Fair value as of: Jul 22, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 19 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 22, 2026, revised from ¥8.58 to ¥4.85 (−43.5%) since Jun 25, 2026. Share price +4.2% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 35% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥6.06). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (35/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 22, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥5.83 – ¥12.10 · fair‑value band ¥3.64 – ¥6.06 · the ¥7.46 price screens above the ¥4.85 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 22, 2026.
Analysis
Hubei Kailong Chemical Group (002783) currently trades at ¥7.46, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥4.85, implying the stock looks roughly 35.0% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 35/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).
Over the trailing twelve months, Hubei Kailong Chemical Group generated revenue of 3.5B CNY at a net margin of 3.3%. Revenue declined 6.4% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 5.8%. Net debt stands at 1.0B CNY. Fundamentals as of Jul 22, 2026
Our scenario range runs from ¥3.64 (bear case) to ¥6.06 (bull case); at ¥7.46, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 37% below its 52-week high and 4% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at -58% fair-value upside, at -35%, 002783 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (¥12.64) versus Earnings-Based (¥3.06). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 22, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 37 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 33
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Hubei Kailong Chemical Group Co., Ltd. engages in the production and sale of explosive materials primarily in China. The company provides civil blasting equipment, nano calcium carbonate and stone products. It offers ammonium nitrate, synthetic ammonia and nitro compound fertilizers.
Full company description
Hubei Kailong Chemical Group Co., Ltd. engages in the production and sale of explosive materials primarily in China. The company provides civil blasting equipment, nano calcium carbonate and stone products. It offers ammonium nitrate, synthetic ammonia and nitro compound fertilizers. It also engages in the production, transportation, and sales of paper-plastic packaging products, fine chemicals, agricultural fertilizers, chemical building materials, and chemical machinery manufacturing; and offers installation services. The company engages in the business of mining products, and engineering blasting services.Hubei Kailong Chemical Group Co., Ltd. was founded in 1967 and is based in Jingmen, China.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Hubei Kailong Chemical Group reported revenue of ¥3.5B in FY2025 versus ¥2.8B in FY2021, a compound +6.5%/yr. Reported net income was ¥142M in FY2025.
002783 screens 35% overvalued. Compare with Linde plc →
Peer Group
Specialty Chemicals · 676 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Specialty Chemicals median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Specialty Chemicals stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 22, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Linde plc LIN | $489.98 | $222.03 | -55% |
| Nan Ya Plastics Corporation 1303 | 181.50 TWD | 255.83 TWD | +41% |
| Wanhua Chemical Group 600309 | ¥70.04 | ¥68.03 | -3% |
| Novozymes A/S NSISB | kr 428.20 | kr 179.66 | -58% |
| Asian Paints Limited ASIANPAINT | ₹2,689 | ₹668.81 | -75% |
| Solar Industries India Limited SOLARINDS | ₹18,236 | ₹2,793 | -85% |
| Pidilite Industries Limited PIDILITIND | ₹1,560 | ₹351.84 | -77% |
| PT Chandra Asri Pacific Tbk TPIA | 1,805 IDR | 2,888 IDR | +60% |
| Linde India Limited LINDEINDIA | ₹7,115 | ₹757.93 | -89% |
| Berger Paints India Limited BERGEPAINT | ₹493.70 | ₹164.29 | -67% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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