Shandong Fengyuan Chemical Co (002805) Fair Value & Analysis
Basic Materials · CN · Market cap 6.8B CNY
Fair value as of: Jul 22, 2026
From 4 valuation models · updated 19 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 22, 2026, revised from ¥9.19 to ¥9.26 (+0.8%) since Jun 25, 2026. Share price −29.2% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 50% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥16.00). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (39/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
- The model range is unusually wide (¥4.16 to ¥16.00). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
- The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 22, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥8.99 – ¥49.09 · fair‑value band ¥4.16 – ¥16.00 · the ¥18.65 price screens above the ¥9.26 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 22, 2026.
Analysis
Shandong Fengyuan Chemical Co (002805) currently trades at ¥18.65, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥9.26, implying the stock looks roughly 50.4% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 39/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: low).
Over the trailing twelve months, Shandong Fengyuan Chemical Co generated revenue of 3.3B CNY at a net margin of -9.5%. Revenue grew 276.5% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -18.2%. Net debt stands at 1.1B CNY. Fundamentals as of Jul 22, 2026
Our scenario range runs from ¥4.16 (bear case) to ¥16.00 (bull case); at ¥18.65, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 32% below its 52-week high and 60% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at -46% fair-value upside, at -50%, 002805 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 4 models by family
Widest divergence: Dividend Discount (¥24.36) versus Multiples (¥4.63). Highest evidence: Gordon GGM (70).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 22, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 34 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 60
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Shandong Fengyuan Chemical Co., Ltd. engages in the lithium battery positive electrode material business in China and internationally.
Full company description
Shandong Fengyuan Chemical Co., Ltd. engages in the lithium battery positive electrode material business in China and internationally. The company offers lithium iron phosphate products, which are used in energy storage lithium batteries and power lithium batteries; ternary materials, which are used in power lithium batteries and digital fields; industrial oxalic acid; refined oxalic acid; and oxalic acid derivatives. Shandong Fengyuan Chemical Co., Ltd. was founded in 2000 and is based in Zaozhuang, China.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Shandong Fengyuan Chemical Co reported revenue of ¥2.3B in FY2025 versus ¥803M in FY2021, a compound +30.5%/yr. Reported net income was −¥485M in FY2025.
002805 screens 50% overvalued. Compare with BASF SE →
Peer Group
Chemicals · 334 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Chemicals median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Chemicals stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 22, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| BASF SE BASN | 1,034 MXN | 532.13 MXN | -49% |
| Ningxia Baofeng Energy Group 600989 | ¥20.32 | ¥20.17 | -1% |
| Zhejiang Juhua Co 600160 | ¥42.85 | ¥23.35 | -46% |
| PT Barito Pacific Tbk, BRPT | 1,690 IDR | 1,628 IDR | -4% |
| LG Chem, Ltd 051910 | 260,500 KRW | 587,755 KRW | +126% |
| Formosa Chemicals & Fibre Corporation 1326 | 66.10 TWD | 6.79 TWD | -90% |
| PTT Global Chemical Public Company PTTGC | 35.50 THB | 18.21 THB | -49% |
| 542812 542812 | ₹4,369 | ₹791.05 | -82% |
| Indorama Ventures Public Company IVL | 24.50 THB | 17.95 THB | -27% |
| Navin Fluorine International Limited NAVINFLUOR | ₹8,650 | ₹2,146 | -75% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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