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Xizang Gaozheng Civil Explosives Co (002827) Fair Value & Analysis

Basic Materials · CN · Market cap 7.2B CNY

XG Xizang Gaozheng Civil Explosives Co 002827 · SHE
Price¥54.16
Fair Value¥12.07
Upside-77.7%
Quality53/100
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Healthy Growth
Solidly profitable · 10.4% net margin
Low debt · generates free cash flow
0.81% dividend yield
Trails peers (4/14)
Narrow moat 43/100
Evidence: Medium Range ¥9.05 – ¥18.67 Share as image

Fair value as of: Jul 22, 2026

From 26 valuation models · updated 19 days ago

Share price +130.4% over the past month.

A solid business, but screening 78% overvalued on our models.

What matters now

  • The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥18.67). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
  • Solid but not exceptional quality (53/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
  • A fairly wide model range (¥9.05 to ¥18.67) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

¥56.10 ¥7.87 Fair Value ¥12.07 Feb 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 22, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range ¥7.87 – ¥56.10 · fair‑value band ¥9.05 – ¥18.67 · the ¥54.16 price screens above the ¥12.07 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 22, 2026.

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Analysis

Xizang Gaozheng Civil Explosives Co (002827) currently trades at ¥54.16, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥12.07, implying the stock looks roughly 77.7% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 53/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).

Over the trailing twelve months, Xizang Gaozheng Civil Explosives Co generated revenue of 1.8B CNY at a net margin of 10.4%. Revenue grew 0.2% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 16.5%. Net debt stands at 57.0M CNY. Fundamentals as of Jul 22, 2026

Our scenario range runs from ¥9.05 (bear case) to ¥18.67 (bull case); at ¥54.16, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 12% below its 52-week high and 118% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at -58% fair-value upside, at -78%, 002827 screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model BearBaseBull Evidence
Highest evidence
Growth DCF ¥7.25 ¥13.36 ¥23.76 80
Residual Income ¥4.59 ¥5.90 ¥14.45 76
Rev-Margin DCF ¥7.94 ¥14.44 ¥23.80 74
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF ¥7.49 ¥12.27 ¥24.56 38
Owner Earnings ¥11.19 ¥22.20 ¥43.37 31
5Y Revenue Exit ¥7.94 ¥14.55 ¥24.82 39
5Y EBITDA Exit ¥9.00 ¥16.92 ¥28.40 41
5Y P/E Exit ¥9.03 ¥17.30 ¥27.63 38
10Y Revenue Exit ¥7.49 ¥14.13 ¥24.42 36
10Y EBITDA Exit ¥8.46 ¥15.98 ¥29.11 37
10Y P/E Exit ¥8.49 ¥16.04 ¥28.42 35
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd ¥4.83 ¥30.58 ¥42.73 54
Lynch FV ¥8.83 ¥12.62 ¥16.40 50
PEG = 1.0 ¥8.83 ¥12.62 ¥16.40 46
EPV ¥7.60 ¥8.64 ¥9.54 59
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM ¥2.73 ¥5.44 ¥8.23 70
DDM Multi-Stage ¥2.73 ¥4.70 ¥5.74 61
Multiples
P/E Multiple ¥9.05 ¥12.07 ¥15.09 63
P/S Multiple ¥7.41 ¥9.88 ¥12.35 58
P/B Multiple ¥9.05 ¥12.07 ¥15.09 55
EV/EBIT ¥10.83 ¥14.10 ¥17.36 53
EV/EBITDA ¥10.03 ¥13.03 ¥16.03 54
EV/Revenue ¥7.94 ¥10.91 ¥13.87 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) ¥2.31 ¥3.09 ¥4.61 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF ¥7.25 ¥13.36 ¥23.76 80
Rev-Margin DCF ¥7.94 ¥14.44 ¥23.80 74
Economic Profit
Residual Income ¥4.59 ¥5.90 ¥14.45 76
ROIC Compounder ¥8.96 ¥12.29 ¥16.91 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E ¥11.47 ¥16.39 ¥21.30 68

Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (¥16.39) versus Asset-Based (¥3.09). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) 1.8B CNY
Revenue growth (YoY) +0.2%
Net margin 10.4%
Return on equity 16.5%
Free cash flow 127M CNY FY2025
P/E ratio 37.8
More key figures
Operating margin 3.0%
EPS (TTM) ¥0.6900
Dividend yield 0.8%
EPS growth (YoY) -46.3%
Net debt 57.0M CNY FY2024

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 22, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 53/100

Of which business quality 54 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 67

Profitability 43
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 41
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 42
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 71
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 48
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 56
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 63
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 86
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 79
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Xizang Gaozheng Civil Explosives Co., Ltd. produces and sells civil explosives and blasting products in China. The company offers industrial explosives, electronic detonators, industrial fuses, industrial detonating cords, and electronic detonator chip modules.

Full company description

Xizang Gaozheng Civil Explosives Co., Ltd. produces and sells civil explosives and blasting products in China. The company offers industrial explosives, electronic detonators, industrial fuses, industrial detonating cords, and electronic detonator chip modules. It also offers transportation services for dangerous goods, road general cargo transportation, bulk commodity transportation, general cargo warehousing services, domestic freight forwarding, motor vehicle repair, armed escort, armed guard, security services, and labor dispatch. Its products are widely used in mining, water conservancy and hydropower, transportation construction, urban redevelopment, geological exploration, blasting services, and national defense sectors. Xizang Gaozheng Civil Explosives Co., Ltd. was founded in 2014 and is headquartered in Lhasa, China.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Xizang Gaozheng Civil Explosives Co reported revenue of ¥1.8B in FY2025 versus ¥933M in FY2021, a compound +18.3%/yr. Reported net income was ¥197M in FY2025, compounding +39.1%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 95/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
1.8B CNY
Latest YoY
+7.8%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y)
+17.2%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y)
+19.3%
Avg. growth/yr (13Y)
+18.8%
Revenue +18.3%/yr
FY21 ¥933M
FY22 ¥1.1B
FY23 ¥1.6B
FY24 ¥1.7B
FY25 ¥1.8B
Net income +39.1%/yr
FY21 ¥52.6M
FY22 ¥53.4M
FY23 ¥97.8M
FY24 ¥148M
FY25 ¥197M

002827 screens 78% overvalued. Compare with Linde plc →

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Xizang Gaozheng Civil Explosives Co Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/002827

Peer Group

Specialty Chemicals · 676 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 53 · Above median
Fair Value upside −78% · Bottom 25%
Return on equity (TTM) 17% · Top 25%
Return on assets 5% · Above median
Net margin (TTM) 10% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 3% · Below median
Revenue growth 0% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM) 0.8% · Below median
Debt / equity 0.29× · Higher than median

Valuation Multiples vs Specialty Chemicals median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 37.8× · Pricier than median
P/B 5.66× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/S (TTM) 3.96× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/FCF 8.4× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA 22.8× · Pricier than 75% of peers

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 0 · sector 0
FUTURE 1 · sector 19
PAST 66 · sector 23
HEALTH 86 · sector 95
DIVIDEND 16 · sector 25

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Specialty Chemicals stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 22, 2026).

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Wanhua Chemical Group 600309 ¥70.04 ¥68.03 -3%
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Asian Paints Limited ASIANPAINT ₹2,689 ₹668.81 -75%
Solar Industries India Limited SOLARINDS ₹18,236 ₹2,793 -85%
Pidilite Industries Limited PIDILITIND ₹1,560 ₹351.84 -77%
PT Chandra Asri Pacific Tbk TPIA 1,805 IDR 2,888 IDR +60%
Linde India Limited LINDEINDIA ₹7,115 ₹757.93 -89%
Berger Paints India Limited BERGEPAINT ₹493.70 ₹164.29 -67%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Xizang Gaozheng Civil Explosives Co (002827) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Jul 22, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥12.07 versus a price of ¥54.16, about −78% (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 002827?
Our model-based fair value for Xizang Gaozheng Civil Explosives Co is ¥12.07 (as of Jul 22, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is ¥54.16.
What is the quality score of 002827?
Xizang Gaozheng Civil Explosives Co has a Quality Score of 53/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Xizang Gaozheng Civil Explosives Co (002827)?
Xizang Gaozheng Civil Explosives Co reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 1.8B CNY (latest available figure, as of Jul 22, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of 002827?
The net profit margin of Xizang Gaozheng Civil Explosives Co is about 10.4%, meaning it keeps roughly 10.4% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Xizang Gaozheng Civil Explosives Co pay a dividend?
Xizang Gaozheng Civil Explosives Co currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.81% relative to its recent price (as of Jul 22, 2026).

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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