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Great River Smart Logistics Co (002930) Fair Value & Analysis

Industrials · CN · Market cap 4.4B CNY

GR Great River Smart Logistics Co 002930 · SHE
Price¥8.90
Fair Value¥14.24
Upside+60.0%
Quality41/100
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Expensive Growth
Loss-making · -35.5% net margin
High debt · generates free cash flow
Mixed vs. peers (7/13)
Narrow moat 30/100
Evidence: Medium Range ¥7.76 – ¥20.73 Share as image

Fair value as of: Jul 24, 2026

From 12 valuation models · updated 17 days ago

Fair value updated Jul 24, 2026, revised from ¥10.42 to ¥14.24 (+36.7%) since Jun 25, 2026. Share price −3.9% over the past month.

Below-average quality, screening 60% undervalued on our models.

What matters now

  • The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (41/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain.
  • The model range is unusually wide (¥7.76 to ¥20.73). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

¥25.18 ¥7.98 Fair Value ¥14.24 Feb 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 24, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range ¥7.98 – ¥25.18 · fair‑value band ¥7.76 – ¥20.73 · the ¥8.90 price screens below the ¥14.24 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 24, 2026.

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Analysis

Great River Smart Logistics Co (002930) currently trades at ¥8.90, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥14.24, implying the stock looks roughly 60.0% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 41/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: medium), always confirm before acting.

Over the trailing twelve months, Great River Smart Logistics Co generated revenue of 1.2B CNY at a net margin of -35.5%. Revenue grew 8.0% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -14.1%. Net debt stands at 3.9B CNY. Fundamentals as of Jul 24, 2026

Our scenario range runs from ¥7.76 (bear case) to ¥20.73 (bull case); at ¥8.90, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 47% below its 52-week high, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 67% fair-value upside, at 60%, 002930 screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model BearBaseBull Evidence
Highest evidence
Growth DCF ¥1.51 ¥8.95 ¥21.35 80
Rev-Margin DCF ¥0.5100 ¥4.79 74
Gordon GGM ¥5.67 ¥11.29 ¥17.10 70
All 12 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF ¥1.70 ¥10.19 ¥25.09 38
5Y Revenue Exit ¥0.5000 ¥4.71 39
5Y EBITDA Exit ¥4.08 ¥14.95 ¥29.02 41
10Y Revenue Exit ¥2.19 ¥7.54 36
10Y EBITDA Exit ¥3.18 ¥12.76 ¥28.14 37
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM ¥5.67 ¥11.29 ¥17.10 70
DDM Multi-Stage ¥5.67 ¥9.76 ¥11.92 61
Multiples
EV/EBIT ¥0.6200 53
EV/EBITDA ¥6.19 ¥10.94 ¥15.68 54
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) ¥2.28 ¥3.06 ¥4.56 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF ¥1.51 ¥8.95 ¥21.35 80
Rev-Margin DCF ¥0.5100 ¥4.79 74

Widest divergence: Multiples (¥10.94) versus Growth DCF (¥0.5100). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) 1.2B CNY
Revenue growth (YoY) +8.0%
Net margin -35.5%
Return on equity -14.1%
Free cash flow 348M CNY FY2025
Operating margin 25.9%
More key figures
EPS (TTM) ¥-0.9500
EPS growth (YoY) -20.0%
Net debt 3.9B CNY FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 24, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 41/100

Of which business quality 40 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 27

Profitability 2
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 24
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 73
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 9
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 67
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 67
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 13
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 8
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 87
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Great River Smart Logistics Co., Ltd., a petrochemical product logistics and comprehensive service provider, offers terminal services to domestic and foreign petrochemical product manufacturers, traders, and end users in China and internationally.

Full company description

Great River Smart Logistics Co., Ltd., a petrochemical product logistics and comprehensive service provider, offers terminal services to domestic and foreign petrochemical product manufacturers, traders, and end users in China and internationally. The company's services include terminal and jetty operation, chemical warehouse storage, transit and other service, logistics chain management service, and other value-added services. Additionally, it offers liquid/gas storage services, drumming, tank truck parking, freight forwarding, brokerage and supervision services, customs and port declaration services, import and export freight forwarding services, dangerous cargo transportation, goods storage, ship and truck loading and unloading, ship to ship transfer, and Intank transfer services. The company was formerly known as Guangdong Great River Smarter Logistics Co., Ltd. and changed its name to Great River Smart Logistics Co., Ltd. in January 2016. Great River Smart Logistics Co., Ltd. was founded in 2012 and is based in Dongguan, China.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Great River Smart Logistics Co reported revenue of ¥1.2B in FY2025 versus ¥1.1B in FY2021, a compound +2.3%/yr. Reported net income was −¥430M in FY2025.

Growth Quality 39/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
1.2B CNY
Latest YoY
−17.9%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y)
−2.0%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y)
+7.0%
Avg. growth/yr (12Y)
+14.2%
Revenue +2.3%/yr
FY21 ¥1.1B
FY22 ¥1.3B
FY23 ¥1.5B
FY24 ¥1.5B
FY25 ¥1.2B
Net income
FY21 ¥272M
FY22 ¥224M
FY23 ¥296M
FY24 ¥158M
FY25 −¥430M

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Great River Smart Logistics Co Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/002930

Peer Group

Marine Shipping · 231 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 41 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside +60% · Top 25%
Return on assets 1% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM) -36% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 26% · Above median
Revenue growth 8% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM) 0.0% · Bottom 25%
Debt / equity 1.93× · Higher than 75% of peers

Valuation Multiples vs Marine Shipping median · lower = cheaper

P/B 0.32× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/S (TTM) 0.54× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/FCF 1.9× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA 6.7× · Cheaper than median

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 100 · sector 29
FUTURE 40 · sector 18
PAST 0 · sector 27
HEALTH 3 · sector 88
DIVIDEND 0 · sector 47

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Marine Shipping stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 24, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone Limited ADANIPORTS ₹1,828 ₹1,041 -43%
A.P. Møller - Mærsk A/S MAERSKA kr 16,520 kr 3,033 -82%
COSCO SHIPPING Holdings 601919 ¥13.98 ¥40.37 +189%
Shanghai International Port (Group) Co 600018 ¥5.17 ¥6.57 +27%
HMM Co 011200 20,050 KRW 33,855 KRW +69%
Ningbo Zhoushan Port Company 601018 ¥3.35 ¥5.58 +67%
Qingdao Port International Co 601298 ¥8.88 ¥15.97 +80%
JSW Infrastructure Limited JSWINFRA ₹330.05 ₹126.31 -62%
Wan Hai Lines Ltd 2615 80.70 TWD 212.79 TWD +164%
Wallenius Wilhelmsen ASA WAWI kr 137.70 kr 50.56 -63%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Great River Smart Logistics Co (002930) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Jul 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥14.24 versus a price of ¥8.90, about +60% (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 002930?
Our model-based fair value for Great River Smart Logistics Co is ¥14.24 (as of Jul 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is ¥8.90.
What is the quality score of 002930?
Great River Smart Logistics Co has a Quality Score of 41/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Great River Smart Logistics Co (002930)?
Great River Smart Logistics Co reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 1.2B CNY (latest available figure, as of Jul 24, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of 002930?
The net profit margin of Great River Smart Logistics Co is about -35.5%, meaning it is currently running at a net loss. Based on the latest reported figures.

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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