Great River Smart Logistics Co (002930) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · CN · Market cap 4.4B CNY
Fair value as of: Jul 24, 2026
From 12 valuation models · updated 17 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 24, 2026, revised from ¥10.42 to ¥14.24 (+36.7%) since Jun 25, 2026. Share price −3.9% over the past month.
Below-average quality, screening 60% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (41/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain.
- The model range is unusually wide (¥7.76 to ¥20.73). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥7.98 – ¥25.18 · fair‑value band ¥7.76 – ¥20.73 · the ¥8.90 price screens below the ¥14.24 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 24, 2026.
Analysis
Great River Smart Logistics Co (002930) currently trades at ¥8.90, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥14.24, implying the stock looks roughly 60.0% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 41/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: medium), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, Great River Smart Logistics Co generated revenue of 1.2B CNY at a net margin of -35.5%. Revenue grew 8.0% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -14.1%. Net debt stands at 3.9B CNY. Fundamentals as of Jul 24, 2026
Our scenario range runs from ¥7.76 (bear case) to ¥20.73 (bull case); at ¥8.90, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 47% below its 52-week high, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 67% fair-value upside, at 60%, 002930 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 12 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples (¥10.94) versus Growth DCF (¥0.5100). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 24, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 40 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 27
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Great River Smart Logistics Co., Ltd., a petrochemical product logistics and comprehensive service provider, offers terminal services to domestic and foreign petrochemical product manufacturers, traders, and end users in China and internationally.
Full company description
Great River Smart Logistics Co., Ltd., a petrochemical product logistics and comprehensive service provider, offers terminal services to domestic and foreign petrochemical product manufacturers, traders, and end users in China and internationally. The company's services include terminal and jetty operation, chemical warehouse storage, transit and other service, logistics chain management service, and other value-added services. Additionally, it offers liquid/gas storage services, drumming, tank truck parking, freight forwarding, brokerage and supervision services, customs and port declaration services, import and export freight forwarding services, dangerous cargo transportation, goods storage, ship and truck loading and unloading, ship to ship transfer, and Intank transfer services. The company was formerly known as Guangdong Great River Smarter Logistics Co., Ltd. and changed its name to Great River Smart Logistics Co., Ltd. in January 2016. Great River Smart Logistics Co., Ltd. was founded in 2012 and is based in Dongguan, China.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Great River Smart Logistics Co reported revenue of ¥1.2B in FY2025 versus ¥1.1B in FY2021, a compound +2.3%/yr. Reported net income was −¥430M in FY2025.
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Peer Group
Marine Shipping · 231 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Marine Shipping median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Marine Shipping stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 24, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone Limited ADANIPORTS | ₹1,828 | ₹1,041 | -43% |
| A.P. Møller - Mærsk A/S MAERSKA | kr 16,520 | kr 3,033 | -82% |
| COSCO SHIPPING Holdings 601919 | ¥13.98 | ¥40.37 | +189% |
| Shanghai International Port (Group) Co 600018 | ¥5.17 | ¥6.57 | +27% |
| HMM Co 011200 | 20,050 KRW | 33,855 KRW | +69% |
| Ningbo Zhoushan Port Company 601018 | ¥3.35 | ¥5.58 | +67% |
| Qingdao Port International Co 601298 | ¥8.88 | ¥15.97 | +80% |
| JSW Infrastructure Limited JSWINFRA | ₹330.05 | ₹126.31 | -62% |
| Wan Hai Lines Ltd 2615 | 80.70 TWD | 212.79 TWD | +164% |
| Wallenius Wilhelmsen ASA WAWI | kr 137.70 | kr 50.56 | -63% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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