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Herald Holdings (0114) Fair Value & Analysis

Consumer Cyclical · HK · Market cap HK$381M

HH Herald Holdings 0114 · HK
PriceHK$0.6700
Fair ValueHK$1.20
Upside+79.1%
Quality76/100
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Weak Growth
Thin margins · 6.8% net margin
generates free cash flow
Ranks above peers (13/13)
Narrow moat 37/100
Evidence: High Range HK$0.9000 – HK$1.50 Share as image

Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026

From 24 valuation models · updated 2 days ago

Share price +1.5% over the past month.

A strong business, screening 79% undervalued on our models.

What matters now

  • The rarer combination: high quality (76/100) AND below fair value. That earns a closer look rather than a quick verdict.
  • The price is below even our cautious bear case (HK$0.9000). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

HK$0.7200 HK$0.2614 Fair Value HK$1.20 Mar 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range HK$0.2614 – HK$0.7200 · fair‑value band HK$0.9000 – HK$1.50 · the HK$0.6700 price screens below the HK$1.20 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

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Analysis

Herald Holdings (0114) currently trades at HK$0.6700, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$1.20, implying the stock looks roughly 79.1% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 76/100 (high quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.

Over the trailing twelve months, Herald Holdings generated revenue of HK$737M at a net margin of 6.8%. Revenue grew 8.4% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 8.0%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of HK$262M. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026

Our scenario range runs from HK$0.9000 (bear case) to HK$1.50 (bull case); at HK$0.6700, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 7% below its 52-week high and 39% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 11% fair-value upside, at 79%, 0114 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model Bear Bear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull Bull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
Residual Income HK$0.7100 HK$0.7200 HK$0.6800 76
Growth DCF HK$1.43 HK$1.70 HK$2.13 72
Gordon GGM HK$0.4700 HK$0.5000 HK$0.5600 70
All 24 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF HK$1.40 HK$1.69 HK$2.18 38
Owner Earnings HK$1.16 HK$1.38 HK$1.75 31
5Y Revenue Exit HK$1.10 HK$1.30 HK$1.60 39
5Y EBITDA Exit HK$1.26 HK$1.57 HK$1.99 41
5Y P/E Exit HK$1.29 HK$1.63 HK$2.05 38
10Y Revenue Exit HK$1.22 HK$1.37 HK$1.52 36
10Y EBITDA Exit HK$1.31 HK$1.52 HK$1.73 37
10Y P/E Exit HK$1.33 HK$1.56 HK$1.76 35
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd HK$0.3700 HK$0.4500 HK$0.5100 54
EPV HK$0.8100 HK$0.8600 HK$0.9000 59
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM HK$0.4700 HK$0.5000 HK$0.5600 70
DDM Multi-Stage HK$0.4700 HK$0.5500 HK$0.6700 61
Multiples
P/E Multiple HK$0.9000 HK$1.20 HK$1.50 63
P/S Multiple HK$0.6900 HK$0.9200 HK$1.16 58
P/B Multiple HK$0.6900 HK$0.9200 HK$1.16 55
EV/EBIT HK$1.13 HK$1.36 HK$1.59 53
EV/EBITDA HK$1.26 HK$1.54 HK$1.81 54
EV/Revenue HK$0.9100 HK$1.11 HK$1.31 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) HK$0.4800 HK$0.6400 HK$0.9500 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF HK$1.43 HK$1.70 HK$2.13 72
Rev-Margin DCF HK$1.10 HK$1.33 HK$1.62 67
Economic Profit
Residual Income HK$0.7100 HK$0.7200 HK$0.6800 76
ROIC Compounder HK$0.8100 HK$0.8600 HK$0.9000 67
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E HK$0.6300 HK$0.9000 HK$1.17 68

Widest divergence: DCF Models (HK$1.52) versus Earnings-Based (HK$0.4500). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).

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Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) HK$737M
Revenue growth (YoY) +8.4%
Net margin 6.8%
Return on equity 8.0%
Free cash flow HK$71.3M FY2025
P/E ratio 8.4
More key figures
Operating margin 10.1%
EPS (TTM) HK$0.0800
EPS growth (YoY) +62.7%
Net cash HK$262M FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 76/100

Of which business quality 76 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 68

Profitability 41
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 70
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 74
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 100
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 100
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 81
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 58
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 71
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 82
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Herald Holdings Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the manufacture, sale, and distribution of toys, computer products, and electronic and gift products in Hong Kong, North America, the United Kingdom, Europe, rest of Asia, Mainland China, and internationally.

Full company description

Herald Holdings Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the manufacture, sale, and distribution of toys, computer products, and electronic and gift products in Hong Kong, North America, the United Kingdom, Europe, rest of Asia, Mainland China, and internationally. The company operates through five segments: Toys, Computer Products, Timepieces, Investments, and Others. It offers a range of toys, such as action figures and electronic radio-controlled vehicles; battery-operated and electronic toys; games; transformers; and model kits and gift items. It also provides clocks and watches. In addition, the company is involved in the property investment and leasing activities; debt and equity securities investment; and managed funds investment activities. Herald Holdings Limited was incorporated in 1992 and is headquartered in Hong Kong, Hong Kong.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Herald Holdings reported revenue of HK$704M in FY2025 versus HK$928M in FY2021, a compound −6.7%/yr. Reported net income was HK$32.9M in FY2025, compounding +12.4%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 40/100
Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
HK$704M
Latest YoY
−1.1%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−15.7%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−5.8%
Avg. growth/yr (27Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−1.4%
Revenue −6.7%/yr
FY21 HK$928M
FY22 HK$1.2B
FY23 HK$1.3B
FY24 HK$711M
FY25 HK$704M
Net income +12.4%/yr
FY21 HK$20.6M
FY22 −HK$61.1M
FY23 HK$82.3M
FY24 −HK$14.4M
FY25 HK$32.9M
Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2014-2025) +8.6 % p.a.
Revenue per share −3.7 pp

of which total revenue −3.7 pp · buybacks/dilution +0.0 pp

EBIT margin +10.5 pp
Tax rate +0.5 pp
Residual (interest, one-offs) +1.3 pp

Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Herald Holdings Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/0114

Peer Group

Leisure · 190 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 76 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside +79% · Top 25%
Return on equity (TTM) 8% · Above median
Return on assets 3% · Above median
Net margin (TTM) 7% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM) 10% · Above median
Revenue growth 8% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM) 9.5% · Top 25%

Valuation Multiples vs Leisure median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 8.4× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/B 0.66× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/S (TTM) 0.52× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF 0.7× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA 2.1× · Cheaper than 75% of peers

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 100 · sector 18
FUTURE 42 · sector 17
PAST 32 · sector 19
HEALTH 0 · sector 95
DIVIDEND 100 · sector 54

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Leisure stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).

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Hasbro, Inc HAS $94.89 $81.97 -14%
Life Time Group LTH $43.81 $15.61 -64%
Ninebot Limited 689009 ¥44.94 ¥39.73 -12%
Li Ning Company 2331 HK$14.59 HK$29.45 +102%
Asmodee Group ASMDEEB kr 158.70 kr 96.65 -39%
Smartfit Escola de Ginástica e Dança S.A SMFT3 R$17.25 R$22.90 +33%
Songcheng Performance Development Co 300144 ¥6.17 ¥6.85 +11%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Herald Holdings (0114) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$1.20 versus a price of HK$0.6700, about +79% (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 0114?
Our model-based fair value for Herald Holdings is HK$1.20 (as of Aug 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is HK$0.6700.
What is the quality score of 0114?
Herald Holdings has a Quality Score of 76/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Herald Holdings (0114)?
Herald Holdings reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$737M (latest available figure, as of Aug 13, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of 0114?
The net profit margin of Herald Holdings is about 6.8%, meaning it keeps roughly 6.8% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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