Herald Holdings (0114) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · HK · Market cap HK$381M
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 24 valuation models · updated 2 days ago
Share price +1.5% over the past month.
A strong business, screening 79% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- The rarer combination: high quality (76/100) AND below fair value. That earns a closer look rather than a quick verdict.
- The price is below even our cautious bear case (HK$0.9000). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$0.2614 – HK$0.7200 · fair‑value band HK$0.9000 – HK$1.50 · the HK$0.6700 price screens below the HK$1.20 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
Herald Holdings (0114) currently trades at HK$0.6700, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$1.20, implying the stock looks roughly 79.1% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 76/100 (high quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, Herald Holdings generated revenue of HK$737M at a net margin of 6.8%. Revenue grew 8.4% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 8.0%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of HK$262M. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from HK$0.9000 (bear case) to HK$1.50 (bull case); at HK$0.6700, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 7% below its 52-week high and 39% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 11% fair-value upside, at 79%, 0114 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 24 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (HK$1.52) versus Earnings-Based (HK$0.4500). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 76 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 68
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Herald Holdings Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the manufacture, sale, and distribution of toys, computer products, and electronic and gift products in Hong Kong, North America, the United Kingdom, Europe, rest of Asia, Mainland China, and internationally.
Full company description
Herald Holdings Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the manufacture, sale, and distribution of toys, computer products, and electronic and gift products in Hong Kong, North America, the United Kingdom, Europe, rest of Asia, Mainland China, and internationally. The company operates through five segments: Toys, Computer Products, Timepieces, Investments, and Others. It offers a range of toys, such as action figures and electronic radio-controlled vehicles; battery-operated and electronic toys; games; transformers; and model kits and gift items. It also provides clocks and watches. In addition, the company is involved in the property investment and leasing activities; debt and equity securities investment; and managed funds investment activities. Herald Holdings Limited was incorporated in 1992 and is headquartered in Hong Kong, Hong Kong.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Herald Holdings reported revenue of HK$704M in FY2025 versus HK$928M in FY2021, a compound −6.7%/yr. Reported net income was HK$32.9M in FY2025, compounding +12.4%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue −3.7 pp · buybacks/dilution +0.0 pp
Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
Watch 0114: get an alert when its fair value changes →
Peer Group
Leisure · 190 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Leisure median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Leisure stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| ANTA Sports Products Limited 2020 | HK$72.80 | HK$119.82 | +65% |
| Pop Mart International Group 9992 | HK$151.00 | HK$227.30 | +51% |
| Amer Sports, Inc AS | $33.03 | $16.16 | -51% |
| Hasbro, Inc HAS | $94.89 | $81.97 | -14% |
| Life Time Group LTH | $43.81 | $15.61 | -64% |
| Ninebot Limited 689009 | ¥44.94 | ¥39.73 | -12% |
| Li Ning Company 2331 | HK$14.59 | HK$29.45 | +102% |
| Asmodee Group ASMDEEB | kr 158.70 | kr 96.65 | -39% |
| Smartfit Escola de Ginástica e Dança S.A SMFT3 | R$17.25 | R$22.90 | +33% |
| Songcheng Performance Development Co 300144 | ¥6.17 | ¥6.85 | +11% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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