Carrianna Group Holdings Co Ltd (0126) fair value: what the stock is really worth
We calculate from audited financials what Carrianna Group Holdings Co Ltd is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily, free.
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Consumer Cyclical · HK · Market cap HK$168M (≈ $21.4M) · ISIN BMG1993G1042
At a glance
CGCarrianna Group Holdings Co Ltd0126 · HK
PriceHK$0.0880
Fair ValueHK$0.0810
Upside−8.0%
Quality54/100
A solid business, currently priced close to our fair value of HK$0.0810.
As of Aug 21, 2026, the fair value of Carrianna Group Holdings Co Ltd is HK$0.0810 per share against a price of HK$0.0880, so the fair value sits 8% below the price. A model estimate from reported figures, not an analyst target.
!Mixed Growth (revenue 5y −7.4 %/yr)
!Loss-making · -9.8% net margin
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
!Mixed vs. peers (6/12)
!Narrow moat 15/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
!The models disagree: range HK$0.0720 to HK$0.2070
!Weak on valuation: 21 out of 100
Evidence: LowRange HK$0.0720 to HK$0.2070
Fair value as of: Aug 21, 2026
From 15 valuation models · updated 20 days ago
Fair value updated Aug 21, 2026, revised from HK$0.0808 to HK$0.0810 (+0.3%) since Aug 13, 2026. Share price −12.9% over the past month.
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69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
The model range is unusually wide (HK$0.0720 to HK$0.2070). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension.
Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 21, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$0.0850 – HK$0.8312 · fair‑value band HK$0.0720 – HK$0.2070 · the HK$0.0880 price screens above the HK$0.0810 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 21, 2026.
Carrianna Group Holdings Co Ltd (0126) currently trades at HK$0.0880, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$0.0810, implying the stock looks roughly 8.6% fairly valued today. The Quality Score stands at 54/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of HK$0.5200 per share, and 11 of the 15 models we run sit above the HK$0.0880 price. Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at HK$0.0700, and 4 of the 15 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Over the trailing twelve months, Carrianna Group Holdings Co Ltd generated revenue of HK$578M at a net margin of −9.8%. Revenue grew 0.2% year over year. It earns a return on equity of −2.1%. Net debt stands at HK$1.5B. Fundamentals as of Aug 21, 2026
Scenario range: HK$0.0720 (bear) to HK$0.2070 (bull), the price of HK$0.0880 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target. The share trades about 60% below its 52-week high, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −45% fair-value upside, at −8%, 0126 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model values the company its own way; the fair value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0 to 100) shows how complete a model's inputs are. How we calculate →
ModelBear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence
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Key figures & financial health
P/S ratio0.29TTM
Dividend yield9.3%
Net margin−23.4%FY2025
Return on equity−2.1%TTM
Return on assets (EBIT)0.6%avg 5y
Operating margin7.1%TTM
More key figures
Growth
Revenue (TTM)HK$578MTTM
Revenue growth (YoY)+0.2%3y avg −9.6%
EPS growth (YoY)−43.9%
Balance sheet & cash flow
Free cash flowHK$183MFY2025
Net debtHK$1.5BFY2025 · ≈ 8.4 yrs of FCF
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 21, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality54/100
Of which business quality 54
· Market factors (momentum, volatility) 20
Profitability4
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth43
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow97
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength33
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment96
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility50
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum10
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum3
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance78
Buybacks instead of dilution
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Carrianna Group Holdings Company Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the operation of hotels and restaurants, and food businesses in Hong Kong and Mainland China. It operates through two segments: The Restaurant, Food and Hotel; and Property Investment and Development.
Full company description
Carrianna Group Holdings Company Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the operation of hotels and restaurants, and food businesses in Hong Kong and Mainland China. It operates through two segments: The Restaurant, Food and Hotel; and Property Investment and Development. The company offers prepared food, including frozen cooked food, home-made dishes, and marinade sauce braised products; owns and operates hotels; and produces moon cakes, rice dumplings, pastries, and souvenirs under the Carrianna brand. It also develops and sells properties; and leases residential, commercial, and industrial properties. In addition, the company builds and operates trade and logistics centers; and operates bakeries and data centers. The company was formerly known as Tak Sing Alliance Holdings Limited and changed its name to Carrianna Group Holdings Company Limited in June 2013. Carrianna Group Holdings Company Limited was founded in 1967 and is headquartered in Kwai Chung, Hong Kong.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Carrianna Group Holdings Co Ltd reported revenue of HK$578M in FY2025 versus HK$796M in FY2021, a compound −7.7%/yr. Reported net income was −HK$135M in FY2025.
Growth Quality 55/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
HK$578M
Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−6.0%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−7.4%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (25Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−1.6%
EBIT margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
11.9% (2019) → 0.4% (2024)
Value creation/yr ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
This stockSector peers
VALUE21· sector 33
FUTURE1· sector 18
PAST0· sector 16
HEALTH95· sector 97
DIVIDEND100· sector 67
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
Similar stocks
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Is Carrianna Group Holdings Co Ltd (0126) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 21, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$0.0810 versus a price of HK$0.0880, about −8% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of 0126?
Our model-based fair value for Carrianna Group Holdings Co Ltd is HK$0.0810 (as of Aug 21, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$0.0880.
What is the quality score of 0126?
Carrianna Group Holdings Co Ltd has a Quality Score of 54/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Carrianna Group Holdings Co Ltd (0126)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$0.0810 (as of Aug 21, 2026) from 15 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$0.0720, optimistic scenario HK$0.2070. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Carrianna Group Holdings Co Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$0.0810, about −8% upside versus a price of HK$0.0880 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario HK$0.0720, optimistic scenario HK$0.2070. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Carrianna Group Holdings Co Ltd (0126)?
Carrianna Group Holdings Co Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$578M (latest available figure, as of Aug 21, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of 0126?
The net profit margin of Carrianna Group Holdings Co Ltd is about −9.8%, meaning it is currently running at a net loss. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Carrianna Group Holdings Co Ltd pay a dividend?
Carrianna Group Holdings Co Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 9.35% relative to its recent price (as of Aug 21, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Carrianna Group Holdings Co Ltd (0126)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Carrianna Group Holdings Co Ltd it is HK$0.0810 per share (as of Aug 21, 2026), against a price of HK$0.0880. It is the blended result of 15 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Carrianna Group Holdings Co Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Aug 21, 2026, 0126 trades above its calculated fair value: price HK$0.0880, fair value HK$0.0810, a gap of about −8% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 0126?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$0.0880); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$0.0810). For Carrianna Group Holdings Co Ltd the two are HK$0.0070 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Carrianna Group Holdings Co Ltd worth?
The market values Carrianna Group Holdings Co Ltd at about HK$168M (market capitalisation, as of Aug 21, 2026). Per share that is HK$0.0880; our models calculate a fair value of HK$0.0810 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 0126?
Our models span a range for Carrianna Group Holdings Co Ltd: cautious scenario HK$0.0720, base HK$0.0810, optimistic HK$0.2070 per share (as of Aug 21, 2026, price HK$0.0880). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Carrianna Group Holdings Co Ltd (0126)?
Balance-sheet figures for Carrianna Group Holdings Co Ltd (as of Aug 21, 2026): return on equity −2.1%, debt of 0.10 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 54/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 0126 from its 52-week high?
Carrianna Group Holdings Co Ltd trades at HK$0.0880, about 60% below its 52-week high of HK$0.2180 (as of Aug 21, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$0.0810 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Carrianna Group Holdings Co Ltd?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value McDonald's Corporation, Starbucks Corporation, Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc, Yum! Brands, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Carrianna Group Holdings Co Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Aug 21, 2026: price HK$0.0880, calculated fair value HK$0.0810 (−8%), Quality Score 54/100, from 15 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 0126 calculated?
We run Carrianna Group Holdings Co Ltd through 15 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$0.0810, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
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