China Agri Products Exchange Ltd (0149) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of China Agri Products Exchange Ltd HK$0.07, price HK$0.06, upside +15.9%, quality 58 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$0.0320 – HK$0.1340 · fair‑value band HK$0.0550 – HK$0.1062 · the HK$0.0640 price screens below the HK$0.0742 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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China Agri-Products Exchange Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the investment, development, construction, operation, and management of agriculture produce wholesale markets in the People's Republic of China and Hong Kong. It operates through two segments: Agricultural Produce Exchange Market Operation and Property Sales.
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China Agri-Products Exchange Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the investment, development, construction, operation, and management of agriculture produce wholesale markets in the People's Republic of China and Hong Kong. It operates through two segments: Agricultural Produce Exchange Market Operation and Property Sales. The company operates various agricultural markets, including the Wuhan Baisazhou agricultural and by-product exchange market located in Wuhan city, Hongshan District; the Yulin Hongjin agricultural and by-product exchange market in Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region; the Luoyang Hongjin agricultural and by-product exchange market located in Henan Province; and the Xuzhou agricultural and by-product exchange market in the northern part of Jiangsu Province. It also operates Puyang Hongjin agricultural and by-product exchange market located in Henan Province; Kaifeng Hongjin agricultural and by-product exchange market located in Henan Province; Qinzhou Hongjin agricultural and by-product exchange market in the Guangxi Region; Huangshi Hongjin agricultural and by-product exchange market in Hubei Province; Huai'an Hongjin market in Jiangsu Province; Panjin Market in Liaoning Province; and Suizhou Market located in Suizhou city, as well as sells properties. The company was incorporated in 1995 and is headquartered in Kowloon Bay, Hong Kong. China Agri-Products Exchange Limited operates as a subsidiary of Wang On Group Limited.
Stock analysis
China Agri Products Exchange Ltd (0149) currently trades at HK$0.0640, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$0.0742, implying the stock looks roughly 13.7% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Asset-Based group reads highest at a median of HK$0.1200 per share, and 11 of the 14 models we run sit above the HK$0.0640 price.
Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at HK$0.0600, and 3 of the 14 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: HK$0.0550 (bear) to HK$0.1062 (bull), the price of HK$0.0640 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 58/100 (solid quality), in the Real Estate sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
China Agri Products Exchange Ltd reported revenue of HK$384M in FY2025 versus HK$869M in FY2021, a compound −18.5%/yr. Reported net income was HK$7.7M in FY2025, compounding −32.5%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap HK$637M (≈ $81.2M) · P/S ratio 0.88 · Net margin 2.0% · Return on equity 32.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) 3.5% · Operating margin 29.8% · Revenue (TTM) HK$703M · Revenue growth (YoY) −38.6%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 25% below its 52-week high and 10% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at −9% fair-value upside, at 16%, 0149 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear HK$0.0550Fair Value HK$0.0742Bull HK$0.1062
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−27.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−13.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−18.9%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +0.5% a year
Revenue growth 22 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.9%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−2.0%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−2.0%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2019 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.30% → 20%
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 38.9%/yr over ~10Y (margin trend unclear) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+18.0%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Hong Kong: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.8% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +15.6% a year for the price.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Real Estate - Diversified · 133 stocks
Beats the industry median on 10/12 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score59 · Above median
Fair Value upside+16% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)32% · Top 25%
Return on assets2% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)−4% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)30% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−39% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.47× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Real Estate - Diversified median · lower = cheaper
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Is China Agri Products Exchange Ltd (0149) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$0.0742 versus a price of HK$0.0640, about +16% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 0149?
Our model-based fair value for China Agri Products Exchange Ltd is HK$0.0742 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$0.0640.
What is the quality score of 0149?
China Agri Products Exchange Ltd has a Quality Score of 58/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for China Agri Products Exchange Ltd (0149)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$0.0742 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 14 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$0.0550, optimistic scenario HK$0.1062. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the China Agri Products Exchange Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$0.0742, about +16% upside versus a price of HK$0.0640 (undervalued). Cautious scenario HK$0.0550, optimistic scenario HK$0.1062. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of China Agri Products Exchange Ltd (0149)?
China Agri Products Exchange Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$703M (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into China Agri Products Exchange Ltd (0149)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, China Agri Products Exchange Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +18.0 % per year for five years (discount rate 13.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -18.9 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 0149 use?
Our models discount China Agri Products Exchange Ltd at 13.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), country premium for Hong Kong. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For China Agri Products Exchange Ltd that is +18.0 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (13.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has China Agri Products Exchange Ltd (0149) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at China Agri Products Exchange Ltd grew -18.9 % a year. The price currently implies +18.0 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of China Agri Products Exchange Ltd (0149) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +1.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into China Agri Products Exchange Ltd (+18.0 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of China Agri Products Exchange Ltd (0149)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 10.17 %: that much free cash flow China Agri Products Exchange Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (13.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of China Agri Products Exchange Ltd (0149)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For China Agri Products Exchange Ltd it is HK$0.0742 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of HK$0.0640. It is the blended result of 14 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is China Agri Products Exchange Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, 0149 trades below its calculated fair value: price HK$0.0640, fair value HK$0.0742, a gap of about +16% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 0149?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$0.0640); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$0.0742). For China Agri Products Exchange Ltd the two are HK$0.0102 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is China Agri Products Exchange Ltd worth?
The market values China Agri Products Exchange Ltd at about HK$637M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is HK$0.0640; our models calculate a fair value of HK$0.0742 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 0149?
Our models span a range for China Agri Products Exchange Ltd: cautious scenario HK$0.0550, base HK$0.0742, optimistic HK$0.1062 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price HK$0.0640). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of China Agri Products Exchange Ltd (0149)?
Balance-sheet figures for China Agri Products Exchange Ltd (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 32.0%, debt of 0.47 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 58/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 0149 from its 52-week high?
China Agri Products Exchange Ltd trades at HK$0.0640, about 25% below its 52-week high of HK$0.0850 and 10% above the low of HK$0.0580 (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$0.0742 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to China Agri Products Exchange Ltd?
From the same area (Real Estate) we also value Swiss Prime Site AG, Central Pattana Public Company, Prestige Estates Projects Limited, The Phoenix Mills Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is China Agri Products Exchange Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price HK$0.0640, calculated fair value HK$0.0742 (+16%), Quality Score 58/100, from 14 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 0149 calculated?
We run China Agri Products Exchange Ltd through 14 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$0.0742, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0 % above its aggregate fair value. China Agri Products Exchange Ltd currently trades 16 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of China Agri Products Exchange Ltd (0149)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was HK$0.0640. Our model-based fair value is HK$0.0742, about +16% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with China Agri Products Exchange Ltd right now?
A fairly wide model range (HK$0.0550 to HK$0.1062) leaves room in how you read the outcome. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual. As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Key figures of China Agri Products Exchange Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of China Agri Products Exchange Ltd (0149)?
The market capitalisation of China Agri Products Exchange Ltd is HK$637M (≈ $81.2M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of China Agri Products Exchange Ltd (0149)?
The price-to-sales ratio of China Agri Products Exchange Ltd is 0.88 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What is the net margin of China Agri Products Exchange Ltd (0149)?
The net margin of China Agri Products Exchange Ltd is 2.0% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of China Agri Products Exchange Ltd (0149)?
The return on equity (ROE) of China Agri Products Exchange Ltd is 32.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of China Agri Products Exchange Ltd (0149)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of China Agri Products Exchange Ltd is 3.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of China Agri Products Exchange Ltd (0149)?
The operating margin of China Agri Products Exchange Ltd is 29.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at China Agri Products Exchange Ltd (0149)?
Revenue at China Agri Products Exchange Ltd is growing −38.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg −13.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at China Agri Products Exchange Ltd (0149)?
Earnings per share at China Agri Products Exchange Ltd are growing −24.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does China Agri Products Exchange Ltd (0149) carry?
The net debt of China Agri Products Exchange Ltd is HK$971M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 15.0 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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