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China Agri-Products Exchange Limited (0149) Fair Value & Analysis

Real Estate · HK · Market cap HK$617M

CA China Agri-Products Exchange Limited 0149 · HK
PriceHK$0.0660
Fair ValueHK$0.0550
Upside-16.7%
Quality58/100
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Weak Growth
Loss-making · -3.7% net margin
Low debt · generates free cash flow
Ranks above peers (7/11)
Moderate moat 61/100
Evidence: Medium Range HK$0.0358 – HK$0.0614 Share as image

Fair value as of: Aug 2, 2026

From 16 valuation models · updated 8 days ago

Fair value updated Aug 2, 2026, revised from HK$0.0608 to HK$0.0550 (−9.5%) since Jul 1, 2026. Share price +3.1% over the past month.

A solid business, but screening 17% overvalued on our models.

What matters now

  • The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (HK$0.0614). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
  • Solid but not exceptional quality (58/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
  • As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

HK$0.1420 HK$0.0320 Fair Value HK$0.0550 Mar 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 2, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range HK$0.0320 – HK$0.1420 · fair‑value band HK$0.0358 – HK$0.0614 · the HK$0.0660 price screens above the HK$0.0550 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 2, 2026.

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Analysis

China Agri-Products Exchange Limited (0149) currently trades at HK$0.0660, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$0.0550, implying the stock looks roughly 16.7% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 58/100 (solid quality), in the Real Estate sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).

Over the trailing twelve months, China Agri-Products Exchange Limited generated revenue of HK$703M at a net margin of -3.7%. Revenue declined 38.6% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 32.0%. Net debt stands at HK$971M. Fundamentals as of Aug 2, 2026

Our scenario range runs from HK$0.0358 (bear case) to HK$0.0614 (bull case); at HK$0.0660, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 24% below its 52-week high and 69% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at -30% fair-value upside, at -17%, 0149 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model Bear Bear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull Bull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
Growth DCF HK$0.0300 HK$0.0600 HK$0.1000 80
Residual Income HK$0.1100 HK$0.1000 HK$0.0600 76
Rev-Margin DCF HK$0.0300 HK$0.0700 HK$0.1200 74
All 16 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF HK$0.0300 HK$0.0600 HK$0.1100 38
5Y Revenue Exit HK$0.0300 HK$0.0700 HK$0.1200 39
5Y EBITDA Exit HK$0.0600 HK$0.1200 HK$0.2100 41
10Y Revenue Exit HK$0.0200 HK$0.0600 HK$0.1100 36
10Y EBITDA Exit HK$0.0400 HK$0.1000 HK$0.1700 37
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM HK$0.0100 HK$0.0200 HK$0.0300 70
DDM Multi-Stage HK$0.0100 HK$0.0200 HK$0.0200 61
Multiples
P/S Multiple HK$0.0100 HK$0.0100 HK$0.0200 58
P/B Multiple HK$0.0100 HK$0.0100 HK$0.0200 55
EV/EBIT HK$0.0900 HK$0.1300 HK$0.1700 53
EV/EBITDA HK$0.0900 HK$0.1300 HK$0.1700 54
EV/Revenue HK$0.0300 HK$0.0600 HK$0.0900 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) HK$0.0900 HK$0.1200 HK$0.1800 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF HK$0.0300 HK$0.0600 HK$0.1000 80
Rev-Margin DCF HK$0.0300 HK$0.0700 HK$0.1200 74
Economic Profit
Residual Income HK$0.1100 HK$0.1000 HK$0.0600 76

Widest divergence: Asset-Based (HK$0.1200) versus Dividend Discount (HK$0.0200). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

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Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) HK$703M
Revenue growth (YoY) -38.6%
Net margin -3.7%
Return on equity 32.0%
Free cash flow HK$64.8M FY2024
Operating margin 29.8%
More key figures
EPS growth (YoY) -24.0%
Net debt HK$971M FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 2, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 58/100

Of which business quality 54 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 59

Profitability 13
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 36
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 80
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 40
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 94
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 53
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 55
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 75
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 82
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

China Agri-Products Exchange Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the investment, development, construction, operation, and management of agriculture produce wholesale markets in the People's Republic of China and Hong Kong. It operates through two segments: Agricultural Produce Exchange Market Operation and Property Sales.

Full company description

China Agri-Products Exchange Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the investment, development, construction, operation, and management of agriculture produce wholesale markets in the People's Republic of China and Hong Kong. It operates through two segments: Agricultural Produce Exchange Market Operation and Property Sales. The company operates various agricultural markets, including the Wuhan Baisazhou agricultural and by-product exchange market located in Wuhan city, Hongshan District; the Yulin Hongjin agricultural and by-product exchange market in Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region; the Luoyang Hongjin agricultural and by-product exchange market located in Henan Province; and the Xuzhou agricultural and by-product exchange market in the northern part of Jiangsu Province. It also operates Puyang Hongjin agricultural and by-product exchange market located in Henan Province; Kaifeng Hongjin agricultural and by-product exchange market located in Henan Province; Qinzhou Hongjin agricultural and by-product exchange market in the Guangxi Region; Huangshi Hongjin agricultural and by-product exchange market in Hubei Province; Huai'an Hongjin market in Jiangsu Province; Panjin Market in Liaoning Province; and Suizhou Market located in Suizhou city, as well as sells properties. The company was incorporated in 1995 and is headquartered in Kowloon Bay, Hong Kong. China Agri-Products Exchange Limited operates as a subsidiary of Wang On Group Limited.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

China Agri-Products Exchange Limited reported revenue of HK$384M in FY2025 versus HK$869M in FY2021, a compound −18.5%/yr. Reported net income was HK$7.7M in FY2025, compounding −32.5%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 40/100
Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
HK$384M
Latest YoY
−27.7%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−13.7%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−18.9%
Avg. growth/yr (22Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+4.9%
Revenue −18.5%/yr
FY21 HK$869M
FY22 HK$596M
FY23 HK$698M
FY24 HK$531M
FY25 HK$384M
Net income −32.5%/yr
FY21 HK$37.0M
FY22 HK$6.8M
FY23 HK$7.4M
FY24 HK$7.8M
FY25 HK$7.7M

0149 screens 17% overvalued. Compare with Swiss Prime Site AG →

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "China Agri-Products Exchange Limited Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/0149

Peer Group

Real Estate - Diversified · 137 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 59 · Above median
Fair Value upside −9% · Below median
Return on equity (TTM) 32% · Top 25%
Return on assets 2% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) -4% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 30% · Above median
Revenue growth -39% · Bottom 25%
Debt / equity 0.47× · Lower than median

Valuation Multiples vs Real Estate - Diversified median · lower = cheaper

P/S (TTM) 0.11× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/FCF 1.2× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA 3.2× · Cheaper than 75% of peers

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 21 · sector 46
FUTURE 0 · sector 32
PAST 100 · sector 17
HEALTH 77 · sector 75
DIVIDEND 0 · sector 45

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

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Frequently asked questions

Is China Agri-Products Exchange Limited (0149) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 2, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$0.0550 versus a price of HK$0.0660, about −17% (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 0149?
Our model-based fair value for China Agri-Products Exchange Limited is HK$0.0550 (as of Aug 2, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is HK$0.0660.
What is the quality score of 0149?
China Agri-Products Exchange Limited has a Quality Score of 58/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of China Agri-Products Exchange Limited (0149)?
China Agri-Products Exchange Limited reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$703M (latest available figure, as of Aug 2, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of 0149?
The net profit margin of China Agri-Products Exchange Limited is about -3.7%, meaning it is currently running at a net loss. Based on the latest reported figures.

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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