China Agri-Products Exchange Limited (0149) Fair Value & Analysis
Real Estate · HK · Market cap HK$617M
Fair value as of: Aug 2, 2026
From 16 valuation models · updated 8 days ago
Fair value updated Aug 2, 2026, revised from HK$0.0608 to HK$0.0550 (−9.5%) since Jul 1, 2026. Share price +3.1% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 17% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (HK$0.0614). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (58/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 2, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$0.0320 – HK$0.1420 · fair‑value band HK$0.0358 – HK$0.0614 · the HK$0.0660 price screens above the HK$0.0550 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 2, 2026.
Analysis
China Agri-Products Exchange Limited (0149) currently trades at HK$0.0660, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$0.0550, implying the stock looks roughly 16.7% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 58/100 (solid quality), in the Real Estate sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).
Over the trailing twelve months, China Agri-Products Exchange Limited generated revenue of HK$703M at a net margin of -3.7%. Revenue declined 38.6% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 32.0%. Net debt stands at HK$971M. Fundamentals as of Aug 2, 2026
Our scenario range runs from HK$0.0358 (bear case) to HK$0.0614 (bull case); at HK$0.0660, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 24% below its 52-week high and 69% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at -30% fair-value upside, at -17%, 0149 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 16 models by family
Widest divergence: Asset-Based (HK$0.1200) versus Dividend Discount (HK$0.0200). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 2, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 54 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 59
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
China Agri-Products Exchange Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the investment, development, construction, operation, and management of agriculture produce wholesale markets in the People's Republic of China and Hong Kong. It operates through two segments: Agricultural Produce Exchange Market Operation and Property Sales.
Full company description
China Agri-Products Exchange Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the investment, development, construction, operation, and management of agriculture produce wholesale markets in the People's Republic of China and Hong Kong. It operates through two segments: Agricultural Produce Exchange Market Operation and Property Sales. The company operates various agricultural markets, including the Wuhan Baisazhou agricultural and by-product exchange market located in Wuhan city, Hongshan District; the Yulin Hongjin agricultural and by-product exchange market in Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region; the Luoyang Hongjin agricultural and by-product exchange market located in Henan Province; and the Xuzhou agricultural and by-product exchange market in the northern part of Jiangsu Province. It also operates Puyang Hongjin agricultural and by-product exchange market located in Henan Province; Kaifeng Hongjin agricultural and by-product exchange market located in Henan Province; Qinzhou Hongjin agricultural and by-product exchange market in the Guangxi Region; Huangshi Hongjin agricultural and by-product exchange market in Hubei Province; Huai'an Hongjin market in Jiangsu Province; Panjin Market in Liaoning Province; and Suizhou Market located in Suizhou city, as well as sells properties. The company was incorporated in 1995 and is headquartered in Kowloon Bay, Hong Kong. China Agri-Products Exchange Limited operates as a subsidiary of Wang On Group Limited.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
China Agri-Products Exchange Limited reported revenue of HK$384M in FY2025 versus HK$869M in FY2021, a compound −18.5%/yr. Reported net income was HK$7.7M in FY2025, compounding −32.5%/yr from FY2021.
0149 screens 17% overvalued. Compare with Swiss Prime Site AG →
Peer Group
Real Estate - Diversified · 137 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Real Estate - Diversified median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Real Estate - Diversified stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 2, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Swiss Prime Site AG SPSN | CHF 129.20 | CHF 44.83 | -65% |
| Central Pattana Public Company CPN | 68.75 THB | 71.37 THB | +4% |
| Prestige Estates Projects Limited PRESTIGE | ₹1,733 | ₹645.21 | -63% |
| The Phoenix Mills Limited PHOENIXLTD | ₹2,076 | ₹701.74 | -66% |
| Umm Al Qura for Development and Construction Company 4325 | 16.39 SAR | 11.62 SAR | -29% |
| Fastighets AB BALDB | kr 50.42 | kr 70.70 | +40% |
| Hainan Airport Infrastructure Co 600515 | ¥2.89 | ¥0.3300 | -89% |
| Shenzhen Special Economic Zone Real Estate & Properties (Group) Co 000029 | ¥19.95 | ¥4.60 | -77% |
| Parque Arauco S.A PARAUCO | 3,940 CLP | 2,777 CLP | -30% |
| Corporación Inmobiliaria Vesta, S.A. VESTA | 59.57 MXN | 53.94 MXN | -9% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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