Kader Holdings (0180) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · HK · Market cap HK$179M
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 10 valuation models · updated 2 days ago
Share price +5.3% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 50% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (HK$0.1200). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (38/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$0.1810 – HK$0.5000 · fair‑value band HK$0.0900 – HK$0.1200 · the HK$0.1990 price screens above the HK$0.1000 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
Kader Holdings (0180) currently trades at HK$0.1990, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$0.1000, implying the stock looks roughly 49.8% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 38/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).
Over the trailing twelve months, Kader Holdings generated revenue of HK$368M at a net margin of -51.5%. It earns a return on equity of -10.3%. Net debt stands at HK$666M. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from HK$0.0900 (bear case) to HK$0.1200 (bull case); at HK$0.1990, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 41% below its 52-week high and 16% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 11% fair-value upside, at -50%, 0180 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 10 models by family
Widest divergence: Asset-Based (HK$1.23) versus DCF Models (HK$0.1000). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 38 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 29
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Kader Holdings Company Limited, an investment holding company, manufactures and trades plastic, electronic and stuffed toys, and model trains in Hong Kong, Mainland China, North America, Europe, Japan, Singapore, and internationally. It operates in three segments: Toys and Model Trains, Property Investment, and Investment Holding.
Full company description
Kader Holdings Company Limited, an investment holding company, manufactures and trades plastic, electronic and stuffed toys, and model trains in Hong Kong, Mainland China, North America, Europe, Japan, Singapore, and internationally. It operates in three segments: Toys and Model Trains, Property Investment, and Investment Holding. The company offers model railroads under the Bachmann brand and plush and educational toys under the Tinco brand. It also engages in the leasing of office premises, commercial buildings, and industrial buildings. The company was founded in 1948 and is headquartered in Kowloon Bay, Hong Kong.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Kader Holdings reported revenue of HK$351M in FY2025 versus HK$397M in FY2021, a compound −3.0%/yr. Reported net income was −HK$190M in FY2025.
0180 screens 50% overvalued. Compare with ANTA Sports Products Limited →
Peer Group
Leisure · 190 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Leisure median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Leisure stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| ANTA Sports Products Limited 2020 | HK$72.80 | HK$119.82 | +65% |
| Pop Mart International Group 9992 | HK$151.00 | HK$227.30 | +51% |
| Amer Sports, Inc AS | $33.03 | $16.16 | -51% |
| Hasbro, Inc HAS | $94.89 | $81.97 | -14% |
| Life Time Group LTH | $43.81 | $15.61 | -64% |
| Ninebot Limited 689009 | ¥44.94 | ¥39.73 | -12% |
| Li Ning Company 2331 | HK$14.59 | HK$29.45 | +102% |
| Asmodee Group ASMDEEB | kr 158.70 | kr 96.65 | -39% |
| Smartfit Escola de Ginástica e Dança S.A SMFT3 | R$17.25 | R$22.90 | +33% |
| Songcheng Performance Development Co 300144 | ¥6.17 | ¥6.85 | +11% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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