Nimble Holdings Co Ltd (0186) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 30, 2026: fair value of Nimble Holdings Co Ltd HK$0.21, price HK$0.34, upside -38.2%, quality 46 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Nimble Holdings Company Limited, an investment holding company, engages in property development and operation in the People's Republic of China and the United States. The company operates through PRC Property Development, Emerson, and PRC Household Appliances segments.
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Nimble Holdings Company Limited, an investment holding company, engages in property development and operation in the People's Republic of China and the United States. The company operates through PRC Property Development, Emerson, and PRC Household Appliances segments. It is also involved in the distribution of houseware and audio products; trading of household appliances, wires, and cables; provision of IT system development and related services; and licensing businesses, as well as provision management services. The company was formerly known as The Grande Holdings Limited and changed its name to Nimble Holdings Company Limited in February 2018. The company was incorporated in 1990 and is based in Tsuen Wan, Hong Kong. Nimble Holdings Company Limited is a subsidiary of Wealth Warrior Global Limited.
Stock analysis
Nimble Holdings Co Ltd (0186) currently trades at HK$0.3400, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$0.2100, 38.2% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of HK$0.2600 per share, and 0 of the 17 models we run sit above the HK$0.3400 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at HK$0.0300, and 17 of the 17 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 46/100 (below-average quality), in the Real Estate sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Nimble Holdings Co Ltd reported revenue of HK$1.5B in FY2025 versus HK$200M in FY2021, a compound +64.1%/yr. Reported net income was HK$1.0M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap HK$857M (≈ $109M) · P/S ratio 2.37 · Net margin 0.1% · Return on equity −14.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) 0.5% · Operating margin −3.7% · Revenue growth (YoY) −81.7% · EPS growth (YoY) −74.3%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 31% below its 52-week high and 353% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at −16% fair-value upside, at −38%, 0186 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear HK$0.2100Fair Value HK$0.2100Bull HK$0.2100
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.79/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−34.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+50.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+43.3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +8.1% a year
Revenue growth 24 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−7.0%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−59.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−59.4%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2019 to 2024 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.20% → 11%
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 16.5%/yr over ~10Y (margins eroding too) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+23.3%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Hong Kong: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.8% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +20.8% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Real Estate - Development · 575 stocks
Beats the industry median on 4/9 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score48 · Above median
Fair Value upside−38.2% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets0.1% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)−10.8% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)−3.7% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−81.7% · Bottom 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Real Estate - Development median · lower = cheaper
P/B0.35× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM)0.30× · Cheapest 25%
P/FCF2.3× · Cheaper than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 69
FUTURE (revenue growth)0· sector 0
PAST (return on equity)0· sector 12
HEALTH (low debt)100· sector 83
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 56
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Nimble Holdings Co Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/0186
Frequently asked questions
Is Nimble Holdings Co Ltd (0186) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$0.2100 versus a price of HK$0.3400, about −38% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 0186?
Our model-based fair value for Nimble Holdings Co Ltd is HK$0.2100 (as of Sep 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$0.3400.
What is the quality score of 0186?
Nimble Holdings Co Ltd has a Quality Score of 46/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Nimble Holdings Co Ltd (0186)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$0.2100 (as of Sep 27, 2026) from 18 valuation models. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Nimble Holdings Co Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$0.2100, about −38% upside versus a price of HK$0.3400 (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What growth is priced into Nimble Holdings Co Ltd (0186)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Nimble Holdings Co Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +23.3 % per year for five years (discount rate 13.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +43.3 % per year. As of Sep 27, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 0186 use?
Our models discount Nimble Holdings Co Ltd at 13.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), country premium for Hong Kong. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Nimble Holdings Co Ltd that is +23.3 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (13.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Nimble Holdings Co Ltd (0186) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Nimble Holdings Co Ltd grew +43.3 % a year. The price currently implies +23.3 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Nimble Holdings Co Ltd (0186) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Nimble Holdings Co Ltd (+23.3 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Nimble Holdings Co Ltd (0186)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 2.52 %: that much free cash flow Nimble Holdings Co Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (13.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Nimble Holdings Co Ltd (0186)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Nimble Holdings Co Ltd it is HK$0.2100 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026), against a price of HK$0.3400. It is the blended result of 18 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Nimble Holdings Co Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 27, 2026, 0186 trades above its calculated fair value: price HK$0.3400, fair value HK$0.2100, a gap of about −38% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 0186?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$0.3400); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$0.2100). For Nimble Holdings Co Ltd the two are HK$0.1300 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Nimble Holdings Co Ltd worth?
The market values Nimble Holdings Co Ltd at about HK$857M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 27, 2026). Per share that is HK$0.3400; our models calculate a fair value of HK$0.2100 per share.
How solid is the balance sheet of Nimble Holdings Co Ltd (0186)?
Balance-sheet figures for Nimble Holdings Co Ltd (as of Sep 27, 2026): return on equity −14.0%. They feed the Quality Score of 46/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 0186 from its 52-week high?
Nimble Holdings Co Ltd trades at HK$0.3400, about 31% below its 52-week high of HK$0.4950 and 353% above the low of HK$0.0750 (as of Sep 30, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$0.2100 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Nimble Holdings Co Ltd?
From the same area (Real Estate) we also value Sun Hung Kai Properties Limited, CK Asset Holdings, Hongkong Land Holdings, DLF Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Nimble Holdings Co Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 27, 2026: price HK$0.3400, calculated fair value HK$0.2100 (−38%), Quality Score 46/100, from 18 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 0186 calculated?
We run Nimble Holdings Co Ltd through 18 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$0.2100, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.7 % above its aggregate fair value. Nimble Holdings Co Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Nimble Holdings Co Ltd (0186)?
The closing price on Sep 30, 2026 was HK$0.3400. Our model-based fair value is HK$0.2100, about −38% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Nimble Holdings Co Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (HK$0.2100). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (46/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Key figures of Nimble Holdings Co Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Nimble Holdings Co Ltd (0186)?
The market capitalisation of Nimble Holdings Co Ltd is HK$857M (≈ $109M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Nimble Holdings Co Ltd (0186)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Nimble Holdings Co Ltd is 2.37 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What is the net margin of Nimble Holdings Co Ltd (0186)?
The net margin of Nimble Holdings Co Ltd is 0.1% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Nimble Holdings Co Ltd (0186)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Nimble Holdings Co Ltd is −14.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Nimble Holdings Co Ltd (0186)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Nimble Holdings Co Ltd is 0.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Nimble Holdings Co Ltd (0186)?
The operating margin of Nimble Holdings Co Ltd is −3.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Nimble Holdings Co Ltd (0186)?
Revenue at Nimble Holdings Co Ltd is growing −81.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg +50.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Nimble Holdings Co Ltd (0186)?
Earnings per share at Nimble Holdings Co Ltd are growing −74.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Nimble Holdings Co Ltd (0186) hold?
Nimble Holdings Co Ltd holds more cash than debt, HK$626M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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