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Melco International Development Ltd (0200) fair value: what the stock is really worth

We calculate from audited financials what Melco International Development Ltd is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? Yes
  2. Good quality? No
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Consumer Cyclical · HK · ISIN HK0200030994

MI Melco International Development Ltd logo Thin data Sep 13, 2026

Melco International Development Ltd

0200 · HK

Cheap, value-trap riskThe stock looks deeply undervalued, but low quality raises value-trap risk.

Fair value HK$4.36 · Strongly undervalued (+50%)
!Quality 41/100
Healthy Growth (revenue 5y +7.7 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 2.6% net margin (TTM)
!High debt · generates free cash flow
Ranks above peers (9/14)
!Moderate moat 45/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
!The models disagree: range HK$3.05 to HK$11.83
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What runs behind every stock

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

HK$10.81 HK$2.42 Fair Value HK$4.36 May 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 13, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range HK$2.42 – HK$10.81 · fair‑value band HK$3.05 – HK$11.83 · the HK$2.90 price screens below the HK$4.36 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 4 fiscal years are left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 13, 2026.

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Company profile

Melco International Development Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the leisure and entertainment business in Macau, the Philippines, and Cyprus. It operates in two segments, Casino and Hospitality, and Others. The company operates casinos and provides hospitality services and facilities through Melco Resorts.

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Melco International Development Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the leisure and entertainment business in Macau, the Philippines, and Cyprus. It operates in two segments, Casino and Hospitality, and Others. The company operates casinos and provides hospitality services and facilities through Melco Resorts. It also develops, owns, and operates integrated resort facilities such as City of Dreams in Macau, the company's flagship integrated resort; Studio City, a cinematically themed integrated resort; Altira Macau, an integrated resort designed to provide a casino and hotel experience; Mocha Clubs and Other, a non-casino based operations of electronic gaming machines; and City of Dreams Manila, and City of Dreams Mediterranean and Other. In addition, the company operates satellite casinos. Further, it provides financing and management services. The company was formerly known as The Macao Electric Lighting Company, Limited and changed its name to Melco International Development Limited in 1988. Melco International Development Limited was incorporated in 1910 and is headquartered in Central, Hong Kong.

Stock analysis

Melco International Development Ltd (0200) currently trades at HK$2.90, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$4.36, implying the stock looks roughly 33.5% undervalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of HK$29.93 per share, and 20 of the 23 models we run sit above the HK$2.90 price.

Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at HK$0.5200, and 3 of the 23 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.

Scenario range: HK$3.05 (bear) to HK$11.83 (bull), the price of HK$2.90 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 41/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.

Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.

Melco International Development Ltd reported revenue of HK$24.5B in FY2025 versus HK$9.1B in FY2021, a compound +28.2%/yr. Reported net income was HK$1.1B in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap HK$7.1B (≈ $908M) · P/E ratio 6.5 · P/S ratio 0.28 · EPS (TTM) HK$0.1700 · Net margin 4.3% · Return on equity 17.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) −0.1% · Operating margin 13.2%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 55% below its 52-week high, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 20% fair-value upside, at 50%, 0200 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear HK$3.05 Fair Value HK$4.36 Bull HK$11.83
Model Each model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (HK$0.1220 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear Bear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull Bull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence Evidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
Owner Earnings n/a HK$19.24 HK$64.44 71
FCF DCF HK$31.51 HK$60.11 HK$149.29 70
Growth DCF HK$28.28 HK$73.25 HK$145.70 70
All 23 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF HK$31.51 HK$60.11 HK$149.29 70
Owner Earnings n/a HK$19.24 HK$64.44 71
5Y Revenue Exit HK$0.8200 HK$10.83 HK$31.26 60
5Y EBITDA Exit HK$22.02 HK$53.68 HK$115.70 67
5Y P/E Exit n/a HK$13.75 HK$31.50 65
10Y Revenue Exit HK$10.02 HK$33.08 HK$43.23 63
10Y EBITDA Exit HK$25.53 HK$77.68 HK$166.85 60
10Y P/E Exit HK$9.34 HK$29.93 HK$59.35 57
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd HK$3.16 HK$22.06 HK$30.96 61
Lynch FV HK$11.40 HK$16.28 HK$21.17 59
PEG = 1.0 HK$11.40 HK$16.28 HK$21.17 55
EPV n/a HK$0.5200 HK$3.11 68
Multiples
P/E Multiple HK$7.68 HK$10.23 HK$12.79 63
P/S Multiple HK$5.93 HK$7.91 HK$9.89 58
P/B Multiple HK$2.51 HK$3.35 HK$4.19 55
EV/EBIT HK$9.87 HK$20.33 HK$30.79 62
EV/EBITDA HK$16.92 HK$29.72 HK$42.53 65
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) HK$0.4200 HK$0.5600 HK$0.8400 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF HK$28.28 HK$73.25 HK$145.70 70
Rev-Margin DCF HK$2.76 HK$15.58 HK$42.90 60
Economic Profit
Residual Income HK$4.34 HK$7.27 HK$162.92 61
ROIC Compounder n/a HK$0.5200 HK$6.96 65
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E HK$15.13 HK$21.61 HK$28.10 65

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 41/100

Of which business quality 42 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 23

Profitability 38
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 34
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 91
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 8
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 80
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 57
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 14
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 0
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 0
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality Growth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 80/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 3 years Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+58.5%
Revenue growth 5 years Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.7%
Revenue growth 24 years Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+27.4%
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) What the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+1.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+1.4%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years Two data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.1% vs −6%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 Operating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−107% → 22%

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Peer GroupHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Resorts & Casinos · 73 stocks

Beats the industry median on 8/13 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 41 · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 17% · Top 25%
Return on assets 4% · Above median
Net margin (TTM) 3% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM) 13% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 10% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 29.99× · Highest 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Resorts & Casinos median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 6.5× · Cheapest 25%
P/B 3.74× · Priciest 25%
P/S (TTM) 0.18× · Cheapest 25%
P/FCF 0.1× · Cheapest 25%
EV/EBITDA 6.0× · Cheaper than median
PEG 2.77× · Priciest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)100 · sector 32
FUTURE (revenue growth)51 · sector 21
PAST (return on equity)69 · sector 13
HEALTH (low debt)0 · sector 82
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 59

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

Gambling

Similar stocks

10 more Resorts & Casinos stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Las Vegas Sands Corp LVS $41.27 $49.90 +21%
Galaxy Entertainment Group 0027 HK$32.70 HK$46.74 +43%
Sands China Ltd 1928 HK$12.20 HK$19.11 +57%
MGM Resorts International, through its subsidiaries, MGM $38.39 $17.73 −54%
Wynn Resorts, Limited WYNN $84.23 $71.06 −16%
Red Rock Resorts, Inc RRR $52.79 $16.52 −69%
Boyd Gaming Corporation BYD $75.60 $144.08 +91%
Caesars Entertainment, Inc CZR $29.67 $35.50 +20%
Genting Singapore Limited G13 0.6150 SGD 0.5600 SGD −9%
Vail Resorts, Inc MTN $140.12 $154.13 +10%

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Melco International Development Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/0200

Frequently asked questions

Is Melco International Development Ltd (0200) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$4.36 versus a price of HK$2.90, about +50% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 0200?
Our model-based fair value for Melco International Development Ltd is HK$4.36 (as of Sep 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$2.90.
What is the quality score of 0200?
Melco International Development Ltd has a Quality Score of 41/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Melco International Development Ltd (0200)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$4.36 (as of Sep 13, 2026) from 23 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$3.05, optimistic scenario HK$11.83. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Melco International Development Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$4.36, about +50% upside versus a price of HK$2.90 (undervalued). Cautious scenario HK$3.05, optimistic scenario HK$11.83. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Melco International Development Ltd (0200)?
Melco International Development Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$40.2B (latest available figure, as of Sep 13, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Melco International Development Ltd (0200)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Melco International Development Ltd it is HK$4.36 per share (as of Sep 13, 2026), against a price of HK$2.90. It is the blended result of 23 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Melco International Development Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 13, 2026, 0200 trades below its calculated fair value: price HK$2.90, fair value HK$4.36, a gap of about +50% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 0200?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$2.90); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$4.36). For Melco International Development Ltd the two are HK$1.46 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Melco International Development Ltd worth?
The market values Melco International Development Ltd at about HK$7.1B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 13, 2026). Per share that is HK$2.90; our models calculate a fair value of HK$4.36 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 0200?
Our models span a range for Melco International Development Ltd: cautious scenario HK$3.05, base HK$4.36, optimistic HK$11.83 per share (as of Sep 13, 2026, price HK$2.90). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 0200?
Melco International Development Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 6.5 (as of Sep 13, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of HK$4.36 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 2.8, P/B 3.7, P/S 0.2, EV/EBITDA 6.0.
What is the PEG ratio of 0200?
The PEG ratio of Melco International Development Ltd is 2.77 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 13, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Melco International Development Ltd (0200)?
Balance-sheet figures for Melco International Development Ltd (as of Sep 13, 2026): return on equity 17.2%. They feed the Quality Score of 41/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 0200 from its 52-week high?
Melco International Development Ltd trades at HK$2.90, about 55% below its 52-week high of HK$6.40 (as of Sep 13, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$4.36 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Melco International Development Ltd?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Las Vegas Sands Corp, Galaxy Entertainment Group, Sands China Ltd, MGM Resorts International, through its subsidiaries,, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Melco International Development Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 13, 2026: price HK$2.90, calculated fair value HK$4.36 (+50%), Quality Score 41/100, from 23 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 0200 calculated?
We run Melco International Development Ltd through 23 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$4.36, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.8 % above its aggregate fair value. Melco International Development Ltd currently trades 50 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Melco International Development Ltd (0200)?
The closing price on Sep 18, 2026 was HK$2.90. Our model-based fair value is HK$4.36, about +50% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Melco International Development Ltd right now?
The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (41/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain. The price is below even our cautious bear case (HK$3.05). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The model range is unusually wide (HK$3.05 to HK$11.83). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.

Key figures of Melco International Development Ltd

How large is the market capitalisation of Melco International Development Ltd (0200)?
The market capitalisation of Melco International Development Ltd is HK$7.1B (≈ $908M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Melco International Development Ltd (0200)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Melco International Development Ltd is 0.28 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Melco International Development Ltd (0200)?
Earnings per share at Melco International Development Ltd are HK$0.1700 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 6.5). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Melco International Development Ltd (0200)?
The net margin of Melco International Development Ltd is 4.3% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Melco International Development Ltd (0200)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Melco International Development Ltd is 17.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Melco International Development Ltd (0200)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Melco International Development Ltd is −0.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Melco International Development Ltd (0200)?
The operating margin of Melco International Development Ltd is 13.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Melco International Development Ltd (0200)?
Revenue at Melco International Development Ltd is growing +10.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg +53.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Melco International Development Ltd (0200)?
Earnings per share at Melco International Development Ltd are growing +32.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Melco International Development Ltd (0200) generate?
The free cash flow of Melco International Development Ltd is HK$7.6B (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Melco International Development Ltd (0200) carry?
The net debt of Melco International Development Ltd is HK$51.2B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 6.8 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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