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Cmge Technology Group Ltd (0302) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of Cmge Technology Group Ltd HK$0.39, price HK$0.18, upside +116.7%, quality 35 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? Yes
  2. Good quality? No
  3. Add to watchlist

Communication Services · HK · ISIN KYG2347J1094

CT Thin data Sep 24, 2026

Cmge Technology Group Ltd

0302 · HK

Cheap, value-trap riskThe stock looks deeply undervalued, but low quality raises value-trap risk.

✓Fair value HK$0.3900 · Strongly undervalued (+117%)
!Quality 35/100
!Weak Growth (revenue 5y −18.3 %/yr)
!Loss-making · -105.9% net margin (TTM)
!Low debt · negative free cash flow
!Mixed vs. peers (4/10)
!Narrow moat 9/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

HK$5.08 HK$0.1730 Fair Value HK$0.3900 May 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range HK$0.1730 – HK$5.08 · fair‑value band HK$0.2900 – HK$0.5800 · the HK$0.1800 price screens below the HK$0.3900 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

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Company profile

CMGE Technology Group Limited, an investment holding company, develops and publishes intellectual property (IP)-based games in Mainland China and internationally. It operates through Game Publishing, Game Development, and Licensing of Intellectual Property segments.

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CMGE Technology Group Limited, an investment holding company, develops and publishes intellectual property (IP)-based games in Mainland China and internationally. It operates through Game Publishing, Game Development, and Licensing of Intellectual Property segments. The company offers IPs related to cultural products and artworks, such as icons or characters from animations, novels, and motion pictures. It is also involved in mobile game publishing, game development, and digital art activities. CMGE Technology Group Limited was founded in 2009 and is headquartered in Shenzhen, the People's Republic of China.

Stock analysis

Cmge Technology Group Ltd (0302) currently trades at HK$0.1800, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$0.3900, implying the stock looks roughly 53.8% undervalued today.

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Valuation

How firm this estimate is: it rests on 1 models at a data quality of 94/100, which puts the evidence level at low.

Scenario range: HK$0.2900 (bear) to HK$0.5800 (bull), the price of HK$0.1800 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 35/100 (below-average quality), in the Communication Services sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.

Cmge Technology Group Ltd reported revenue of 1.4B CNY in FY2025 versus 4.0B CNY in FY2021, a compound −23.0%/yr. Reported net income was −1.5B CNY in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap HK$539M (≈ $68.7M) · P/S ratio 0.37 · EPS (TTM) HK$−0.2100 · Net margin −106% · Return on equity −46.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) −4.7% · Operating margin −24.8% · Revenue (TTM) 1.4B CNY.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 28 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 64% below its 52-week high and 4% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Communication Services peers we cover trades at 50% fair-value upside, at 117%, 0302 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear HK$0.2900 Fair Value HK$0.3900 Bull HK$0.5800
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
NCAV (Graham) HK$0.4000 HK$0.5400 HK$0.8100 54
All 1 models by family
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) HK$0.4000 HK$0.5400 HK$0.8100 54

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 35/100

Of which business quality 34 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 20

Profitability 9
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 33
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 9
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 50
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 100
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 47
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 13
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 1
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 37
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 0/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−28.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−20.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−18.3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 9 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.7%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
5.7% (2020) → −36.1% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Electronic Gaming & Multimedia · 149 stocks

Beats the industry median on 3/8 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 35 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside +117% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on assets −7% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM) −106% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM) −25% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth −10% · Below median

Valuation Multiplesvs Electronic Gaming & Multimedia median · lower = cheaper

P/S (TTM) 0.05× · Cheapest 25%
PEG 0.26× · Cheapest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)100 · sector 47
FUTURE (revenue growth)0 · sector 7
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 18
HEALTH (low debt)100 · sector 99
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 52

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Electronic Gaming & Multimedia stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Konami Group KNM £210.55 £65.48 −69%
NetEase, Inc NTES $117.02 $253.97 +117%
Take-Two Interactive Software, Inc TTWO $206.32 $75.97 −63%
Roblox Corporation RBLX $48.99 $46.00 −6%
Zhejiang Century Huatong Group 002602 ¥14.62 ¥27.63 +89%
KRAFTON, Inc 259960 198,000 KRW 395,557 KRW +100%
Giant Network Group 002558 ¥24.33 ¥31.97 +31%
International Games System Co 3293 729.00 TWD 1,094 TWD +50%
CD Projekt S.A CDR 249.30 PLN 274.23 PLN +10%
37 Interactive Entertainment Network Technology Group 002555 ¥17.83 ¥38.44 +116%

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Cmge Technology Group Ltd · Fair Value
HK$0.3900 +54%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Cmge Technology Group Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/0302

Frequently asked questions

Is Cmge Technology Group Ltd (0302) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$0.3900 versus a price of HK$0.1800, about +117% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 0302?
Our model-based fair value for Cmge Technology Group Ltd is HK$0.3900 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$0.1800.
What is the quality score of 0302?
Cmge Technology Group Ltd has a Quality Score of 35/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Cmge Technology Group Ltd (0302)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$0.3900 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 1 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$0.2900, optimistic scenario HK$0.5800. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Cmge Technology Group Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$0.3900, about +117% upside versus a price of HK$0.1800 (undervalued). Cautious scenario HK$0.2900, optimistic scenario HK$0.5800. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Cmge Technology Group Ltd (0302)?
Cmge Technology Group Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 1.4B CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Cmge Technology Group Ltd (0302)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Cmge Technology Group Ltd it is HK$0.3900 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of HK$0.1800. It is the blended result of 1 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Cmge Technology Group Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, 0302 trades below its calculated fair value: price HK$0.1800, fair value HK$0.3900, a gap of about +117% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 0302?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$0.1800); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$0.3900). For Cmge Technology Group Ltd the two are HK$0.2100 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Cmge Technology Group Ltd worth?
The market values Cmge Technology Group Ltd at about HK$539M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is HK$0.1800; our models calculate a fair value of HK$0.3900 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 0302?
Our models span a range for Cmge Technology Group Ltd: cautious scenario HK$0.2900, base HK$0.3900, optimistic HK$0.5800 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price HK$0.1800). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the PEG ratio of 0302?
The PEG ratio of Cmge Technology Group Ltd is 0.26 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 24, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Cmge Technology Group Ltd (0302)?
Balance-sheet figures for Cmge Technology Group Ltd (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity −46.9%. They feed the Quality Score of 35/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 0302 from its 52-week high?
Cmge Technology Group Ltd trades at HK$0.1800, about 64% below its 52-week high of HK$0.5000 and 4% above the low of HK$0.1730 (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$0.3900 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Cmge Technology Group Ltd?
From the same area (Communication Services) we also value Konami Group, NetEase, Inc, Take-Two Interactive Software, Inc, Roblox Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Cmge Technology Group Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price HK$0.1800, calculated fair value HK$0.3900 (+117%), Quality Score 35/100, from 1 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 0302 calculated?
We run Cmge Technology Group Ltd through 1 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$0.3900, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Cmge Technology Group Ltd currently trades 117 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Cmge Technology Group Ltd (0302)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was HK$0.1800. Our model-based fair value is HK$0.3900, about +117% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Cmge Technology Group Ltd right now?
The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (35/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain. The price is below even our cautious bear case (HK$0.2900). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range (HK$0.2900 to HK$0.5800) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Key figures of Cmge Technology Group Ltd

How large is the market capitalisation of Cmge Technology Group Ltd (0302)?
The market capitalisation of Cmge Technology Group Ltd is HK$539M (≈ $68.7M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Cmge Technology Group Ltd (0302)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Cmge Technology Group Ltd is 0.37 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Cmge Technology Group Ltd (0302)?
Earnings per share at Cmge Technology Group Ltd are HK$−0.2100. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Cmge Technology Group Ltd (0302)?
The net margin of Cmge Technology Group Ltd is −106% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Cmge Technology Group Ltd (0302)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Cmge Technology Group Ltd is −46.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Cmge Technology Group Ltd (0302)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Cmge Technology Group Ltd is −4.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Cmge Technology Group Ltd (0302)?
The operating margin of Cmge Technology Group Ltd is −24.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Cmge Technology Group Ltd (0302)?
Revenue at Cmge Technology Group Ltd is growing −10.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg −20.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Cmge Technology Group Ltd (0302)?
Earnings per share at Cmge Technology Group Ltd are growing −55.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Cmge Technology Group Ltd (0302) generate?
The free cash flow of Cmge Technology Group Ltd is −12.5M CNY (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Cmge Technology Group Ltd (0302) carry?
The net debt of Cmge Technology Group Ltd is 411M CNY (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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