Success Universe Group (0487) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · HK · Market cap HK$217M
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 3 valuation models · updated 2 days ago
Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from HK$0.0589 to HK$0.0608 (+3.2%) since Aug 2, 2026. Share price −4.7% over the past month.
Below-average quality, screening 48% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (38/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain.
- The price is below even our cautious bear case (HK$0.0518). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
- The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$0.0380 – HK$0.2850 · fair‑value band HK$0.0518 – HK$0.0743 · the HK$0.0410 price screens below the HK$0.0608 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
Success Universe Group (0487) currently trades at HK$0.0410, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$0.0608, implying the stock looks roughly 48.3% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 38/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: low), always confirm before acting.
Trailing-twelve-month revenue stands at HK$59.7M. Revenue grew 63.1% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -53.1%. Net debt stands at HK$408M. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from HK$0.0518 (bear case) to HK$0.0743 (bull case); at HK$0.0410, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 73% below its 52-week high and 11% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at -28% fair-value upside, at 48%, 0487 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 3 models by family
Widest divergence: Asset-Based (HK$0.0800) versus Dividend Discount (HK$0.0100). Highest evidence: Gordon GGM (70).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 36 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 16
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Success Universe Group Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the travel-related and property investment businesses in Hong Kong, Macau, the People's Republic of China, and North America. The company operates through two segments, Travel Business and Property Investment Business.
Full company description
Success Universe Group Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the travel-related and property investment businesses in Hong Kong, Macau, the People's Republic of China, and North America. The company operates through two segments, Travel Business and Property Investment Business. It provides travel-related and administration services; and wholesale and retails airline tickets and tour packages. The company also rents and leases office premises and sells properties. In addition, it manages Ponte 16, an integrated casino-entertainment resort in Macau. The company was founded in 2003 and is headquartered in Hong Kong, Hong Kong. Success Universe Group Limited is a subsidiary of Silver Rich Macau Development Limited.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Success Universe Group reported revenue of HK$59.7M in FY2025 versus HK$151M in FY2021, a compound −20.7%/yr. Reported net income was −HK$410M in FY2025.
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Peer Group
Travel Services · 92 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Travel Services median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Travel Services stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Booking Holdings BKNG | $212.26 | $152.94 | -28% |
| Airbnb, Inc ABNB | $180.10 | $85.66 | -52% |
| Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd RCL | $307.15 | $215.19 | -30% |
| Viking Holdings VIK | $104.19 | $43.68 | -58% |
| Carnival Corporation CCL | $27.67 | $31.36 | +13% |
| Expedia Group EXPE | $325.57 | $248.63 | -24% |
| Trip.com Group TCOM | $45.58 | $89.04 | +95% |
| Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings NCLH | $18.92 | $20.28 | +7% |
| Global Business Travel Group GBTG | $9.44 | $5.04 | -47% |
| Travel + Leisure Co TNL | $74.68 | $26.57 | -64% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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