Lai Sun Development Co Ltd (0488) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 29, 2026: fair value of Lai Sun Development Co Ltd HK$1.69, price HK$0.59, upside +186.4%, quality 34 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$0.4600 – HK$6.25 · fair‑value band HK$0.3380 – HK$3.72 · the HK$0.5900 price screens below the HK$1.69 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
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Lai Sun Development Company Limited, together with its subsidiaries, invests in, develops, leases, and sells real estate properties in Hong Kong, Mainland China, Macau, the United Kingdom, Vietnam, and internationally.
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Lai Sun Development Company Limited, together with its subsidiaries, invests in, develops, leases, and sells real estate properties in Hong Kong, Mainland China, Macau, the United Kingdom, Vietnam, and internationally. It operates through Property Development and Sales; Property Investment; Hotel Operation; Restaurant and F&B Product Sales Operations; Media and Entertainment; Film and TV Program; Cinema Operation; Theme Park Operation; and Others segments. The company invests in commercial and office buildings; offers building management, leasing agency, and building services; operates hotels and restaurants; sells food and beverage products; sells albums; distributes and licenses music and film rights; and trades in gaming products. It also provides and consultancy services to hotels, serviced apartments, and restaurants; artiste management services; luxury yachts brokerage, charter, marketing, management, and crew placement services; and property management, treasury, real estate agency, finance, management, film library management, video duplication, translating and subtitling of television programs, and performance agency services. In addition, the company engages in the management and production of concerts, as well as provision of related advertising services. Further, it invests in, produces, licenses, and distributes television programs and films, as well as distributes video format products; invests in, develops, and operates cultural, leisure, entertainment, and related facilities; operates cinemas and theme parks; and retails golf apparel. The company was incorporated in 1959 and is headquartered in Central, Hong Kong. Lai Sun Development Company Limited is a subsidiary of Lai Sun Garment (International) Limited.
Stock analysis
Lai Sun Development Co Ltd (0488) currently trades at HK$0.5900, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$1.69, implying the stock looks roughly 65.1% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Asset-Based group reads highest at a median of HK$10.66 per share, and 3 of the 3 models we run sit above the HK$0.5900 price.
Bear case: the Growth DCF group reads lowest at HK$2.93, and 0 of the 3 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: HK$0.3380 (bear) to HK$3.72 (bull), the price of HK$0.5900 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 34/100 (below-average quality), in the Real Estate sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Lai Sun Development Co Ltd reported revenue of HK$4.9B in FY2025 versus HK$6.2B in FY2021, a compound −5.7%/yr. Reported net income was −HK$2.9B in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap HK$1.0B (≈ $133M) · P/S ratio 0.21 · EPS (TTM) HK$−3.80 · Net margin −58.7% · Return on equity −14.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) −1.4% · Operating margin 3.8% · Revenue (TTM) HK$4.9B.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 45% below its 52-week high and 4% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at −47% fair-value upside, at 186%, 0488 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear HK$0.3380Fair Value HK$1.69Bull HK$3.72
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.18/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−18.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−2.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−1.9%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +12.3% a year
Revenue growth 27 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.2%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−20.8% (2020) → −17.0% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+58.7%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Hong Kong: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.8% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +55.4% a year for the price.
Compare Lai Sun Development Co Ltd with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Real Estate - Diversified · 133 stocks
Beats the industry median on 4/9 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score35 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside+186.4% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on assets−0.8% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM)−79.5% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)3.8% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth1.4% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.47× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Real Estate - Diversified median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Lai Sun Development Co Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/0488
Frequently asked questions
Is Lai Sun Development Co Ltd (0488) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$1.69 versus a price of HK$0.5900, about +186% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 0488?
Our model-based fair value for Lai Sun Development Co Ltd is HK$1.69 (as of Sep 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$0.5900.
What is the quality score of 0488?
Lai Sun Development Co Ltd has a Quality Score of 34/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Lai Sun Development Co Ltd (0488)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$1.69 (as of Sep 27, 2026) from 4 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$0.3380, optimistic scenario HK$3.72. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Lai Sun Development Co Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$1.69, about +186% upside versus a price of HK$0.5900 (undervalued). Cautious scenario HK$0.3380, optimistic scenario HK$3.72. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Lai Sun Development Co Ltd (0488)?
Lai Sun Development Co Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$4.9B (latest available figure, as of Sep 27, 2026).
What growth is priced into Lai Sun Development Co Ltd (0488)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Lai Sun Development Co Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +58.7 % per year for five years (discount rate 13.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -1.9 % per year. As of Sep 27, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 0488 use?
Our models discount Lai Sun Development Co Ltd at 13.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), country premium for Hong Kong. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Lai Sun Development Co Ltd that is +58.7 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (13.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Lai Sun Development Co Ltd (0488) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Lai Sun Development Co Ltd grew -1.9 % a year. The price currently implies +58.7 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Lai Sun Development Co Ltd (0488) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +1.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Lai Sun Development Co Ltd (+58.7 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Lai Sun Development Co Ltd (0488)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 20.21 %: that much free cash flow Lai Sun Development Co Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (13.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Lai Sun Development Co Ltd (0488)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Lai Sun Development Co Ltd it is HK$1.69 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026), against a price of HK$0.5900. It is the blended result of 4 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Lai Sun Development Co Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 27, 2026, 0488 trades below its calculated fair value: price HK$0.5900, fair value HK$1.69, a gap of about +186% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 0488?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$0.5900); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$1.69). For Lai Sun Development Co Ltd the two are HK$1.10 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Lai Sun Development Co Ltd worth?
The market values Lai Sun Development Co Ltd at about HK$1.0B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 27, 2026). Per share that is HK$0.5900; our models calculate a fair value of HK$1.69 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 0488?
Our models span a range for Lai Sun Development Co Ltd: cautious scenario HK$0.3380, base HK$1.69, optimistic HK$3.72 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026, price HK$0.5900). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Lai Sun Development Co Ltd (0488)?
Balance-sheet figures for Lai Sun Development Co Ltd (as of Sep 27, 2026): return on equity −14.1%, debt of 0.47 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 34/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 0488 from its 52-week high?
Lai Sun Development Co Ltd trades at HK$0.5900, about 45% below its 52-week high of HK$1.07 and 4% above the low of HK$0.5700 (as of Sep 29, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$1.69 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Lai Sun Development Co Ltd?
From the same area (Real Estate) we also value Swiss Prime Site AG, Central Pattana Public Company, The Phoenix Mills Limited, Prestige Estates Projects Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Lai Sun Development Co Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 27, 2026: price HK$0.5900, calculated fair value HK$1.69 (+186%), Quality Score 34/100, from 4 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 0488 calculated?
We run Lai Sun Development Co Ltd through 4 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$1.69, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.9 % above its aggregate fair value. Lai Sun Development Co Ltd currently trades 65 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Lai Sun Development Co Ltd (0488)?
The closing price on Sep 29, 2026 was HK$0.5900. Our model-based fair value is HK$1.69, about +186% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Lai Sun Development Co Ltd right now?
The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (34/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain. The model range is unusually wide (HK$0.3380 to HK$3.72). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Key figures of Lai Sun Development Co Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Lai Sun Development Co Ltd (0488)?
The market capitalisation of Lai Sun Development Co Ltd is HK$1.0B (≈ $133M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Lai Sun Development Co Ltd (0488)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Lai Sun Development Co Ltd is 0.21 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Lai Sun Development Co Ltd (0488)?
Earnings per share at Lai Sun Development Co Ltd are HK$−3.80. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Lai Sun Development Co Ltd (0488)?
The net margin of Lai Sun Development Co Ltd is −58.7% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Lai Sun Development Co Ltd (0488)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Lai Sun Development Co Ltd is −14.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Lai Sun Development Co Ltd (0488)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Lai Sun Development Co Ltd is −1.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Lai Sun Development Co Ltd (0488)?
The operating margin of Lai Sun Development Co Ltd is 3.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Lai Sun Development Co Ltd (0488)?
Revenue at Lai Sun Development Co Ltd is growing +1.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg −2.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much net debt does Lai Sun Development Co Ltd (0488) carry?
The net debt of Lai Sun Development Co Ltd is HK$23.1B (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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