TFG International Group Ltd (0542) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 29, 2026: fair value of TFG International Group Ltd HK$2.10, price HK$0.84, upside +150.0%, quality 60 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 29, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$0.2200 – HK$1.77 · fair‑value band HK$1.13 – HK$3.01 · the HK$0.8400 price screens below the HK$2.10 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 29, 2026.
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China Cultural Tourism and Agriculture Group Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the property development, hotel businesses, and trading of food and beverages in the People's Republic of China. It operates through Property Development Business, Hotel Business, and Other Business segments.
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China Cultural Tourism and Agriculture Group Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the property development, hotel businesses, and trading of food and beverages in the People's Republic of China. It operates through Property Development Business, Hotel Business, and Other Business segments. The Property Development Business segment develops and sells residential and commercial properties in Zhongshan. This segment also provides agency services; and operates clubhouses. Its Hotel Business segment provides sub licensing to hotel operators and related management activities. The Other Business segment trades in goods. It is also involved in cultural tourism, e-commerce, agricultural products, and food processing activities; and manufactures and sells hygiene products. The company was formerly known as TFG International Group Limited and changed its name to China Cultural Tourism and Agriculture Group Limited in December 2023. China Cultural Tourism and Agriculture Group Limited was incorporated in 1988 and is headquartered in Central, Hong Kong.
Stock analysis
TFG International Group Ltd (0542) currently trades at HK$0.8400, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$2.10, implying the stock looks roughly 60.0% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of HK$6.83 per share, and 5 of the 6 models we run sit above the HK$0.8400 price.
Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at HK$0.6000, and 1 of the 6 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: HK$1.13 (bear) to HK$3.01 (bull), the price of HK$0.8400 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 60/100 (solid quality), in the Real Estate sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
TFG International Group Ltd reported revenue of HK$762M in FY2025 versus HK$16.5M in FY2021, a compound +160.8%/yr. Reported net income was HK$53.5M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap HK$1.3B (≈ $164M) · P/E ratio 21.7 · P/S ratio 1.52 · EPS (TTM) HK$−0.0300 · Net margin 7.0% · Return on equity 275% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.3% · Operating margin −23.9%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 53% below its 52-week high and 65% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at −16% fair-value upside, at 150%, 0542 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear HK$1.13Fair Value HK$2.10Bull HK$3.01
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+252.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−21.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+102.6%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +23.5% a year
Revenue growth 26 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−0.5%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 3 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 3 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−43.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−43.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−552% → −22%
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−16.8%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Hong Kong: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.8% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −18.5% a year for the price.
Compare TFG International Group Ltd with another stock
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Real Estate - Development · 576 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/10 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score61 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+150.0% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)Negative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
Return on assets−3.8% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM)7.0% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)−23.9% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth258.6% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equityNegative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
Valuation Multiplesvs Real Estate - Development median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)21.7× · Pricier than median
P/BNegative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
P/S (TTM)1.69× · Pricier than median
P/FCF2.5× · Cheaper than median
PEG0.63× · Cheaper than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)100· sector 70
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 0
PAST (return on equity)0· sector 12
HEALTH (low debt)0· sector 83
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 55
PAST 0: with negative equity (buybacks among others) return on equity is not meaningfully computable.
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "TFG International Group Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/0542
Frequently asked questions
Is TFG International Group Ltd (0542) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 29, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$2.10 versus a price of HK$0.8400, about +150% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 0542?
Our model-based fair value for TFG International Group Ltd is HK$2.10 (as of Sep 29, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$0.8400.
What is the quality score of 0542?
TFG International Group Ltd has a Quality Score of 60/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for TFG International Group Ltd (0542)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$2.10 (as of Sep 29, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$1.13, optimistic scenario HK$3.01. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the TFG International Group Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$2.10, about +150% upside versus a price of HK$0.8400 (undervalued). Cautious scenario HK$1.13, optimistic scenario HK$3.01. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of TFG International Group Ltd (0542)?
TFG International Group Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$762M (latest available figure, as of Sep 29, 2026).
What growth is priced into TFG International Group Ltd (0542)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, TFG International Group Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by -16.8 % per year for five years (discount rate 12.2 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +102.6 % per year. As of Sep 29, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 0542 use?
Our models discount TFG International Group Ltd at 12.2 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 0.67, country premium for Hong Kong. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For TFG International Group Ltd that is -16.8 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (12.2 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has TFG International Group Ltd (0542) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at TFG International Group Ltd grew +102.6 % a year. The price currently implies -16.8 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of TFG International Group Ltd (0542) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +1.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into TFG International Group Ltd (-16.8 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of TFG International Group Ltd (0542)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 39.74 %: that much free cash flow TFG International Group Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (12.2 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of TFG International Group Ltd (0542)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For TFG International Group Ltd it is HK$2.10 per share (as of Sep 29, 2026), against a price of HK$0.8400. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is TFG International Group Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 29, 2026, 0542 trades below its calculated fair value: price HK$0.8400, fair value HK$2.10, a gap of about +150% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 0542?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$0.8400); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$2.10). For TFG International Group Ltd the two are HK$1.26 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is TFG International Group Ltd worth?
The market values TFG International Group Ltd at about HK$1.3B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 29, 2026). Per share that is HK$0.8400; our models calculate a fair value of HK$2.10 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 0542?
Our models span a range for TFG International Group Ltd: cautious scenario HK$1.13, base HK$2.10, optimistic HK$3.01 per share (as of Sep 29, 2026, price HK$0.8400). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 0542?
TFG International Group Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 21.7 (as of Sep 29, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of HK$2.10 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 0.6, P/S 1.7.
What is the PEG ratio of 0542?
The PEG ratio of TFG International Group Ltd is 0.63 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 29, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of TFG International Group Ltd (0542)?
Balance-sheet figures for TFG International Group Ltd (as of Sep 29, 2026): negative equity, so no return on equity and no debt-to-equity ratio. They feed the Quality Score of 60/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 0542 from its 52-week high?
TFG International Group Ltd trades at HK$0.8400, about 53% below its 52-week high of HK$1.77 and 65% above the low of HK$0.5100 (as of Sep 29, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$2.10 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to TFG International Group Ltd?
From the same area (Real Estate) we also value Sun Hung Kai Properties Limited, CK Asset Holdings, Hongkong Land Holdings, DLF Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is TFG International Group Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 29, 2026: price HK$0.8400, calculated fair value HK$2.10 (+150%), Quality Score 60/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 0542 calculated?
We run TFG International Group Ltd through 6 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$2.10, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.9 % above its aggregate fair value. TFG International Group Ltd currently trades 60 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of TFG International Group Ltd (0542)?
The closing price on Sep 29, 2026 was HK$0.8400. Our model-based fair value is HK$2.10, about +150% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with TFG International Group Ltd right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (HK$1.13). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The model range is unusually wide (HK$1.13 to HK$3.01). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid quality (60/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Key figures of TFG International Group Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of TFG International Group Ltd (0542)?
The market capitalisation of TFG International Group Ltd is HK$1.3B (≈ $164M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of TFG International Group Ltd (0542)?
The price-to-sales ratio of TFG International Group Ltd is 1.52 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of TFG International Group Ltd (0542)?
Earnings per share at TFG International Group Ltd are HK$−0.0300 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 21.7). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of TFG International Group Ltd (0542)?
The net margin of TFG International Group Ltd is 7.0% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of TFG International Group Ltd (0542)?
The return on equity (ROE) of TFG International Group Ltd is 275% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of TFG International Group Ltd (0542)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of TFG International Group Ltd is 1.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of TFG International Group Ltd (0542)?
The operating margin of TFG International Group Ltd is −23.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at TFG International Group Ltd (0542)?
Revenue at TFG International Group Ltd is growing +259% versus a year earlier (3y avg −21.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much net debt does TFG International Group Ltd (0542) carry?
The net debt of TFG International Group Ltd is HK$756M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 1.5 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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