FIBOCOM (0638) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 30, 2026: fair value of FIBOCOM HK$11.46, price HK$7.16, upside +60.1%, quality 39 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Fibocom Wireless Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides wireless communication modules and artificial intelligence solutions in China and internationally.
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Fibocom Wireless Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides wireless communication modules and artificial intelligence solutions in China and internationally. It offers wireless communication products, including 5G, LTE, smart, and Wi-Fi modules; AI and robot solutions, such as embodied intelligent development platform, mobile robotics, and lawn mowing robot; and intelligent vehicle comprising smart connectivity, smart cockpit, and software solutions. The company also engages in trading; market expansion; investment activities; and in-vehicle and cloud services. Its products are used in robotics, consumer electronics, low-altitude economy, intelligent transportation, smart retail, and smart energy industries. The company was founded in 1999 and is headquartered in Shenzhen, China.
Stock analysis
FIBOCOM (0638) currently trades at HK$7.16, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$11.46, implying the stock looks roughly 37.5% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of HK$13.88 per share, and 22 of the 26 models we run sit above the HK$7.16 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at HK$5.06, and 4 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: HK$8.50 (bear) to HK$14.42 (bull), the price of HK$7.16 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 39/100 (below-average quality), in the Technology sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
FIBOCOM reported revenue of 7.0B CNY in FY2025 versus 2.3B CNY in FY2021, a compound +31.8%/yr. Reported net income was 347M CNY in FY2025, compounding +57.2%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap HK$6.4B (≈ $821M) · P/S ratio 1.00 · EPS (TTM) HK$0.1409 · Dividend yield 3.3% · Net margin 5.0% · Return on equity 4.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.6% · Operating margin 1.5%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 42 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 64% below its 52-week high and 4% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at −62% fair-value upside, at 60%, 0638 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear HK$8.50Fair Value HK$11.46Bull HK$14.42
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.76/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+0.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+79.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+21.0%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +11.7% a year
Revenue growth 23 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.9%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+13.6%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+10.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)3.3%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.10.3% vs −1.8%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.2% → 5%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far and about what analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+19.5%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+17.4%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in CNY, China: IMF forecast 1.7% a year to 2030, 1.4% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +17.5% a year for the price and +15.4% for the forecasts.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Communication Equipment · 304 stocks
Beats the industry median on 9/12 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score39 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside+60.1% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)4.8% · Above median
Return on assets1.7% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)3.5% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)1.5% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−9.6% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)3.3% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.01× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Communication Equipment median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "FIBOCOM Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/0638
Frequently asked questions
Is FIBOCOM (0638) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$11.46 versus a price of HK$7.16, about +60% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 0638?
Our model-based fair value for FIBOCOM is HK$11.46 (as of Sep 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$7.16.
What is the quality score of 0638?
FIBOCOM has a Quality Score of 39/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for FIBOCOM (0638)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$11.46 (as of Sep 27, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$8.50, optimistic scenario HK$14.42. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the FIBOCOM stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$11.46, about +60% upside versus a price of HK$7.16 (undervalued). Cautious scenario HK$8.50, optimistic scenario HK$14.42. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of FIBOCOM (0638)?
FIBOCOM reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 6.8B CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 27, 2026).
Does FIBOCOM pay a dividend?
FIBOCOM currently shows a dividend yield of about 3.27% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 27, 2026).
What growth is priced into FIBOCOM (0638)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, FIBOCOM would have to grow free cash flow by +19.5 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +21.0 % per year. As of Sep 27, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 0638 use?
Our models discount FIBOCOM at 10.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.40, country premium for Hong Kong. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For FIBOCOM that is +19.5 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has FIBOCOM (0638) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at FIBOCOM grew +21.0 % a year. The price currently implies +19.5 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of FIBOCOM (0638) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +6.9 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into FIBOCOM (+19.5 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of FIBOCOM (0638)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 2.46 %: that much free cash flow FIBOCOM produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of FIBOCOM (0638)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For FIBOCOM it is HK$11.46 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026), against a price of HK$7.16. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is FIBOCOM stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 27, 2026, 0638 trades below its calculated fair value: price HK$7.16, fair value HK$11.46, a gap of about +60% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 0638?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$7.16); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$11.46). For FIBOCOM the two are HK$4.30 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is FIBOCOM worth?
The market values FIBOCOM at about HK$6.4B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 27, 2026). Per share that is HK$7.16; our models calculate a fair value of HK$11.46 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 0638?
Our models span a range for FIBOCOM: cautious scenario HK$8.50, base HK$11.46, optimistic HK$14.42 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026, price HK$7.16). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of FIBOCOM (0638)?
Balance-sheet figures for FIBOCOM (as of Sep 27, 2026): return on equity 4.8%, debt of 0.01 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 39/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 0638 from its 52-week high?
FIBOCOM trades at HK$7.16, about 64% below its 52-week high of HK$19.92 and 4% above the low of HK$6.89 (as of Sep 30, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$11.46 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to FIBOCOM?
From the same area (Technology) we also value Cisco Systems, Inc, Foxconn Industrial Internet Co, Zhongji Innolight Co, Eoptolink Technology Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is FIBOCOM stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 27, 2026: price HK$7.16, calculated fair value HK$11.46 (+60%), Quality Score 39/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 0638 calculated?
We run FIBOCOM through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$11.46, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.7 % above its aggregate fair value. FIBOCOM currently trades 38 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of FIBOCOM (0638)?
The closing price on Sep 30, 2026 was HK$7.16. Our model-based fair value is HK$11.46, about +60% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with FIBOCOM right now?
The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (39/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain. The price is below even our cautious bear case (HK$8.50). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Key figures of FIBOCOM
How large is the market capitalisation of FIBOCOM (0638)?
The market capitalisation of FIBOCOM is HK$6.4B (≈ $821M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of FIBOCOM (0638)?
The price-to-sales ratio of FIBOCOM is 1.00 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of FIBOCOM (0638)?
Earnings per share at FIBOCOM are HK$0.1409. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of FIBOCOM (0638)?
The dividend yield of FIBOCOM is 3.3% (payout 166%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of FIBOCOM (0638)?
The net margin of FIBOCOM is 5.0% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of FIBOCOM (0638)?
The return on equity (ROE) of FIBOCOM is 4.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of FIBOCOM (0638)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of FIBOCOM is 1.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of FIBOCOM (0638)?
The operating margin of FIBOCOM is 1.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at FIBOCOM (0638)?
Revenue at FIBOCOM is growing −9.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg +79.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at FIBOCOM (0638)?
Earnings per share at FIBOCOM are growing −93.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does FIBOCOM (0638) carry?
The net debt of FIBOCOM is 286M CNY (fiscal year 2023, ≈ 2.1 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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