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Data-driven stock valuation

Zhongsheng Group Holdings Ltd (0881) fair value: what the stock is really worth

We calculate from audited financials what Zhongsheng Group Holdings Ltd is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily, free.

  1. Compare price with fair valuebelow fair value = cheap, above = expensive
  2. Check the quality50 and up solid, 75 and up strong
  3. Watch it or check another stockalert when fair value or trend changes

Consumer Cyclical · HK · Market cap HK$11.5B (≈ $1.5B) · ISIN KYG9894K1085

At a glance

ZG Zhongsheng Group Holdings Ltd 0881 · HK
PriceHK$3.55
Fair ValueHK$20.76
Upside+485.6%
Quality53/100

A solid business, trading 83% below our fair value of HK$20.76.

As of Aug 21, 2026, the fair value of Zhongsheng Group Holdings Ltd is HK$20.76 per share against a price of HK$3.55, so the fair value sits 486% above the price. A model estimate from reported figures, not an analyst target.

!Weak Growth (revenue 5y +2.1 %/yr)
!Loss-making · -1.0% net margin
Low debt · generates free cash flow
!Trails peers (3/9)
!Narrow moat 8/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
!Weak on future: 8 out of 100
Evidence: Low Range HK$11.04 to HK$30.47

Fair value as of: Aug 21, 2026

From 10 valuation models · updated 18 days ago

Fair value updated Aug 21, 2026, revised from HK$20.67 to HK$20.76 (+0.4%) since Aug 13, 2026. Share price −20.2% over the past month.

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What runs behind every stock

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

What matters now

  • The price is below even our cautious bear case (HK$11.04). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
  • The model range is unusually wide (HK$11.04 to HK$30.47). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
  • The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
  • Solid quality (53/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

HK$64.39 HK$3.55 Fair Value HK$20.76 Apr 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 21, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range HK$3.55 – HK$64.39 · fair‑value band HK$11.04 – HK$30.47 · the HK$3.55 price screens below the HK$20.76 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 21, 2026.

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Analysis

Zhongsheng Group Holdings Ltd (0881) currently trades at HK$3.55, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$20.76, implying the stock looks roughly 82.9% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 53/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of HK$41.79 per share, and 10 of the 10 models we run sit above the HK$3.55 price. Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at HK$9.59, and 0 of the 10 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.

Over the trailing twelve months, Zhongsheng Group Holdings Ltd generated revenue of HK$164B at a net margin of −1.0%. Revenue grew 1.6% year over year. It earns a return on equity of −4.2%. Net debt stands at HK$27.5B. Fundamentals as of Aug 21, 2026

Scenario range: HK$11.04 (bear) to HK$30.47 (bull), the price of HK$3.55 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −13% fair-value upside, at 486%, 0881 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 8 months old). Earnings retained since then (HK$0.2957 per share) are deliberately not added.

Each model values the company its own way; the fair value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0 to 100) shows how complete a model's inputs are. How we calculate →

Model Bear Bear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull Bull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
FCF DCF HK$31.37 HK$56.52 HK$101.76 75
5Y EBITDA Exit HK$15.04 HK$20.44 HK$26.71 74
Growth DCF HK$30.98 HK$53.55 HK$92.74 73
All 10 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF HK$31.37 HK$56.52 HK$101.76 75
5Y Revenue Exit HK$25.14 HK$41.79 HK$64.57 69
5Y EBITDA Exit HK$15.04 HK$20.44 HK$26.71 74
10Y Revenue Exit HK$26.29 HK$43.04 HK$69.17 63
10Y EBITDA Exit HK$20.21 HK$27.17 HK$36.71 67
Multiples
EV/EBITDA HK$7.91 HK$9.59 HK$11.26 67
EV/Revenue HK$22.33 HK$30.66 HK$38.99 54
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) HK$9.23 HK$12.37 HK$18.46 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF HK$30.98 HK$53.55 HK$92.74 73
Rev-Margin DCF HK$25.14 HK$41.39 HK$62.96 69

Widest divergence: DCF Models (HK$41.79) versus Multiples (HK$9.59). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (75).

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Key figures & financial health

P/S ratio 0.07 TTM
EPS (TTM) HK$0.4300
Dividend yield 12.5% payout 103%
Net margin −1.0% FY2025
Return on equity −4.2% TTM
Return on assets (EBIT) 7.6% avg 5y
More key figures
Profitability
Operating margin −1.4% TTM
Growth
Revenue (TTM) HK$164B TTM
Revenue growth (YoY) +1.6% 3y avg −3.0%
EPS growth (YoY) −35.6%
Balance sheet & cash flow
Free cash flow HK$5.1B FY2025
Net debt HK$27.5B FY2025 · ≈ 5.4 yrs of FCF

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 21, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 53/100

Of which business quality 54 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 16

Profitability 28
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 27
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 35
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 66
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 93
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 52
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 0
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 0
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 100
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.

About the company

Zhongsheng Group Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the sale and service of motor vehicles in the People's Republic of China.

Full company description

Zhongsheng Group Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the sale and service of motor vehicles in the People's Republic of China. The company operates 4S dealerships for various automobile brands consisting of luxury automobile brands, including Mercedes-Benz, Lexus, BMW, Audi, Jaguar Land Rover, Porsche, Volvo and AITO, as well as mid-to-high end automobile brands, such as Toyota, Nissan, and Honda. It also provides spare parts, automobile accessories, repair and maintenance services, and other automobile-related products and services. In addition, the company offers sales and service of automobile insurance; and provision of other services. The company was founded in 1998 and is headquartered in Dalian, the People's Republic of China.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Zhongsheng Group Holdings Ltd reported revenue of 164B CNY in FY2025 versus 175B CNY in FY2021, a compound −1.6%/yr. Reported net income was −1.7B CNY in FY2025.

Growth Quality 28/100
Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
HK$164B
Latest YoY
−2.2%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−3.0%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+2.1%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (19Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+18.6%
EBIT margin (trend) Operating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
6.0% (2020) → −0.8% (2025)
Value creation/yr We only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Revenue −1.6%/yr
FY21 175B CNY
FY22 180B CNY
FY23 179B CNY
FY24 168B CNY
FY25 164B CNY
Net income
FY21 8.3B CNY
FY22 6.7B CNY
FY23 5.0B CNY
FY24 3.2B CNY
FY25 −1.7B CNY
Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2014-2025) +17.2 % p.a.
Revenue per share +12.4 %

of which total revenue +12.9 % · buybacks/dilution −0.5 %

EBIT margin −1.2 %
Tax rate +0.9 %
Residual (interest, one-offs) +4.6 %

Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Zhongsheng Group Holdings Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/0881

Peer Group

Auto & Truck Dealerships · 99 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Valuation
Quality Score 53 · Above median
Profitability
Return on assets 0% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM) −1% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM) −1% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 2% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM) 12.5% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.31× · Above median

Valuation Multiples vs Auto & Truck Dealerships median · lower = cheaper

P/FCF 0.3× · Cheapest 25%

Context: sector, industry, market

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE0 · sector 28
FUTURE8 · sector 9
PAST0 · sector 20
HEALTH84 · sector 90
DIVIDEND100 · sector 71

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Auto & Truck Dealerships stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 21, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Carvana Co CVNA $74.04 $17.59 −76%
Penske Automotive Group PAG $219.62 $217.41 −1%
Hotai Motor Co 2207 524.00 TWD 558.82 TWD +7%
CarMax, Inc KMX $63.29 $29.44 −53%
Lithia Motors, Inc LAD $369.61 $498.50 +35%
AutoNation, Inc AN $196.57 $329.77 +68%
AUTO1 Group AG1 €21.78 €5.84 −73%
Rush Enterprises, Inc RUSHA $76.27 $66.27 −13%
Valvoline Inc VVV $33.96 $24.55 −28%
Eagers Automotive Limited APE A$23.44 A$17.66 −25%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Zhongsheng Group Holdings Ltd (0881) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 21, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$20.76 versus a price of HK$3.55, about +486% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 0881?
Our model-based fair value for Zhongsheng Group Holdings Ltd is HK$20.76 (as of Aug 21, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$3.55.
What is the quality score of 0881?
Zhongsheng Group Holdings Ltd has a Quality Score of 53/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Zhongsheng Group Holdings Ltd (0881)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$20.76 (as of Aug 21, 2026) from 10 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$11.04, optimistic scenario HK$30.47. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Zhongsheng Group Holdings Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$20.76, about +486% upside versus a price of HK$3.55 (undervalued). Cautious scenario HK$11.04, optimistic scenario HK$30.47. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Zhongsheng Group Holdings Ltd (0881)?
Zhongsheng Group Holdings Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$164B (latest available figure, as of Aug 21, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of 0881?
The net profit margin of Zhongsheng Group Holdings Ltd is about −1.0%, meaning it is currently running at a net loss. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Zhongsheng Group Holdings Ltd pay a dividend?
Zhongsheng Group Holdings Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 12.45% relative to its recent price (as of Aug 21, 2026).
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