AUTO1 Group SE (AG1) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 28, 2026: fair value of AUTO1 Group SE €4.53, price €18.18, upside -75.1%, quality 47 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 28, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €3.35 – €41.87 · fair‑value band €2.68 – €10.57 · the €18.18 price screens above the €4.53 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 28, 2026.
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AUTO1 Group SE, a technology company, operates a digital automotive platform for buying and selling used cars online in Germany, France, Spain, Italy, and internationally. The company operates in two segments, Merchant and Retail.
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AUTO1 Group SE, a technology company, operates a digital automotive platform for buying and selling used cars online in Germany, France, Spain, Italy, and internationally. The company operates in two segments, Merchant and Retail. It is involved in the operation of AUTO1.com platform for the sale of used cars to commercial dealers; Autohero.com for the sale of used cars to private customers; and wirkaufendeinauto.de, an online platform to sell used cars to AUTO1. The company was founded in 2012 and is based in Berlin, Germany.
Stock analysis
AUTO1 Group SE (AG1) currently trades at €18.18, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €4.53, implying the stock looks roughly 301.3% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of €16.97 per share, and 0 of the 15 models we run sit above the €18.18 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at €0.6700, and 15 of the 15 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: €2.68 (bear) to €10.57 (bull), the price of €18.18 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 47/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
AUTO1 Group SE reported revenue of €8.2B in FY2025 versus €4.8B in FY2021, a compound +14.4%/yr. Reported net income was €77.9M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap €4.0B · P/E ratio 49.1 · P/S ratio 0.47 · EPS (TTM) €0.3700 · Net margin 1.0% · Return on equity 11.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) −4.8% · Operating margin 1.5%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 42 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat.
The share trades about 42% below its 52-week high and 24% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −75%, AG1 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear €2.68Fair Value €4.53Bull €10.57
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (€0.2757 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.58/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+30.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+23.6%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 9 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+21.0%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−2.7% (2020) → 1.2% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: no profitable base year
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (21 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Auto & Truck Dealerships · 99 stocks
Beats the industry median on 2/12 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score47 · Below median
Fair Value upside−75.1% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)11.4% · Above median
Return on assets3.0% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)0.9% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)1.5% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth23.4% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.87× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Auto & Truck Dealerships median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)49.1× · Priciest 25%
P/B5.68× · Priciest 25%
P/S (TTM)0.44× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA32.7× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 41
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 13
PAST (return on equity)46· sector 24
HEALTH (low debt)7· sector 85
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 71
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "AUTO1 Group SE Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/AG1
Frequently asked questions
Is AUTO1 Group SE (AG1) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 28, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €4.53 versus a price of €18.18, about −75% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of AG1?
Our model-based fair value for AUTO1 Group SE is €4.53 (as of Sep 28, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €18.18.
What is the quality score of AG1?
AUTO1 Group SE has a Quality Score of 47/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for AUTO1 Group SE (AG1)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €4.53 (as of Sep 28, 2026) from 15 valuation models. Cautious scenario €2.68, optimistic scenario €10.57. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the AUTO1 Group SE stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €4.53, about −75% upside versus a price of €18.18 (overvalued). Cautious scenario €2.68, optimistic scenario €10.57. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of AUTO1 Group SE (AG1)?
AUTO1 Group SE reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €9.1B (latest available figure, as of Sep 28, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of AUTO1 Group SE (AG1)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For AUTO1 Group SE it is €4.53 per share (as of Sep 28, 2026), against a price of €18.18. It is the blended result of 15 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is AUTO1 Group SE stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 28, 2026, AG1 trades above its calculated fair value: price €18.18, fair value €4.53, a gap of about −75% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of AG1?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€18.18); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€4.53). For AUTO1 Group SE the two are €13.65 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is AUTO1 Group SE worth?
The market values AUTO1 Group SE at about €4.0B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 28, 2026). Per share that is €18.18; our models calculate a fair value of €4.53 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about AG1?
Our models span a range for AUTO1 Group SE: cautious scenario €2.68, base €4.53, optimistic €10.57 per share (as of Sep 28, 2026, price €18.18). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of AG1?
AUTO1 Group SE trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 49.1 (as of Sep 28, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of €4.53 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 5.7, P/S 0.4, EV/EBITDA 32.7.
How solid is the balance sheet of AUTO1 Group SE (AG1)?
Balance-sheet figures for AUTO1 Group SE (as of Sep 28, 2026): return on equity 11.4%, debt of 1.87 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 47/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is AG1 from its 52-week high?
AUTO1 Group SE trades at €18.18, about 42% below its 52-week high of €31.24 and 24% above the low of €14.63 (as of Sep 28, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €4.53 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to AUTO1 Group SE?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Carvana Co, Penske Automotive Group, Hotai Motor Co, CarMax, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is AUTO1 Group SE stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 28, 2026: price €18.18, calculated fair value €4.53 (−75%), Quality Score 47/100, from 15 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of AG1 calculated?
We run AUTO1 Group SE through 15 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of €4.53, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.9 % above its aggregate fair value. AUTO1 Group SE itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of AUTO1 Group SE (AG1)?
The closing price on Sep 28, 2026 was €18.18. Our model-based fair value is €4.53, about −75% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with AUTO1 Group SE right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (€10.57). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The model range is unusually wide (€2.68 to €10.57). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (47/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Key figures of AUTO1 Group SE
How large is the market capitalisation of AUTO1 Group SE (AG1)?
The market capitalisation of AUTO1 Group SE is €4.0B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of AUTO1 Group SE (AG1)?
The price-to-sales ratio of AUTO1 Group SE is 0.47 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of AUTO1 Group SE (AG1)?
Earnings per share at AUTO1 Group SE are €0.3700 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 49.1). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of AUTO1 Group SE (AG1)?
The net margin of AUTO1 Group SE is 1.0% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of AUTO1 Group SE (AG1)?
The return on equity (ROE) of AUTO1 Group SE is 11.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of AUTO1 Group SE (AG1)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of AUTO1 Group SE is −4.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of AUTO1 Group SE (AG1)?
The operating margin of AUTO1 Group SE is 1.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at AUTO1 Group SE (AG1)?
Revenue at AUTO1 Group SE is growing +23.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg +7.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at AUTO1 Group SE (AG1)?
Earnings per share at AUTO1 Group SE are growing +53.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does AUTO1 Group SE (AG1) generate?
The free cash flow of AUTO1 Group SE is −€485M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does AUTO1 Group SE (AG1) carry?
The net debt of AUTO1 Group SE is €1.1B (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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