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China Merchants Land Ltd (0978) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 29, 2026: fair value of China Merchants Land Ltd HK$0.58, price HK$0.24, upside +142.9%, quality 42 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

Fair value above price? Yes
Good quality? No
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Real Estate · HK · ISIN KYG210AW1064

CM Thin data Sep 27, 2026

China Merchants Land Ltd

0978 · HK

Cheap, value-trap riskThe stock looks deeply undervalued, but low quality raises value-trap risk.

✓Fair value HK$0.5830 · Strongly undervalued (+142.9%)

!Quality 42/100

!Weak Growth (revenue 5y +6.7 %/yr)

!Loss-making · -8.4% net margin (TTM)

!High debt · negative free cash flow

!Trails peers (3/11)

!Narrow moat 9/100

!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain

26 models, one by oneBear HK$0.4390 to bull HK$0.8700 Growth analysisrevenue history, year by year Quality 42/100 in detail37 factors, each one shown Compared with its peersrank on every measure, side by side

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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range HK$0.1820 – HK$0.8958 · fair‑value band HK$0.4390 – HK$0.8700 · the HK$0.2400 price screens below the HK$0.5830 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.

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Company profile

China Merchants Land Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the property development business in China and Hong Kong. It operates in two segments, Properties and Asset Management.

China Merchants Land Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the property development business in China and Hong Kong. It operates in two segments, Properties and Asset Management. The company develops, sells, and leases residential properties; and residential and commercial complex properties, including apartments, villas, offices, retail shops, and others. It also provides asset management services for office premises and shopping malls; and real estate investment trust management services. The company was formerly known as Tonic Industries Holdings Limited and changed its name to China Merchants Land Limited in November 2013. China Merchants Land Limited was founded in 1997 and is headquartered in Central, Hong Kong. The company operates as a subsidiary of Success Well Investments Limited.

Stock analysis

China Merchants Land Ltd (0978) currently trades at HK$0.2400, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$0.5830, implying the stock looks roughly 58.8% undervalued today.

Valuation

How firm this estimate is: it rests on 6 models at a data quality of 80/100, which puts the evidence level at low.

Scenario range: HK$0.4390 (bear) to HK$0.8700 (bull), the price of HK$0.2400 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 42/100 (below-average quality), in the Real Estate sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.

China Merchants Land Ltd reported revenue of 26.3B CNY in FY2025 versus 25.9B CNY in FY2021, a compound +0.3%/yr. Reported net income was −2.2B CNY in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap HK$1.2B (≈ $150M) · P/S ratio 0.04 · EPS (TTM) HK$−0.0500 · Dividend yield 4.6% · Net margin −8.4% · Return on equity −6.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.4% · Operating margin 2.4%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 20% below its 52-week high and 4% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at −47% fair-value upside, at 143%, 0978 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear HK$0.4390 Fair Value HK$0.5830 Bull HK$0.8700

Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.

Highest evidence

NCAV (Graham) HK$0.6800 HK$0.9200 HK$1.37 54

All 1 models by family

Asset-Based

NCAV (Graham) HK$0.6800 HK$0.9200 HK$1.37 54

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 42/100

Of which business quality 39 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 41

Profitability 5

Margins and returns on capital today

Quality Growth 75

Are margins and returns improving?

Cashflow 16

Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit

Fin. Strength 10

Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk

Investment 100

Disciplined investing over empire-building

Low Volatility 75

Calm price path (market factor)

Momentum 34

Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)

52W Momentum 14

Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)

Net Issuance 82

Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 27/100

Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.

Revenue growth 1 year

+27.1%

Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.

−4.2%

Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.

+6.7%

Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +15.2% a year

Revenue growth 28 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.

+10.4%

’14

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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.

20.3% (2020) → 1.7% (2025)

What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss

not computed

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Real Estate - Diversified · 133 stocks

Beats the industry median on 3/10 measures

Overall it trails its industry peers.

Valuation

Quality Score 43 · Below median

Fair Value upside +142.9% · Top 25%

Profitability

Return on assets 0.2% · Below median

Net margin (TTM) −8.4% · Bottom 25%

Operating margin (TTM) 2.4% · Bottom 25%

Growth and dividend

Revenue growth 38.5% · Top 25%

Dividend yield (TTM) 4.6% · Above median

Balance sheet

Debt / equity 4.68× · Highest 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Real Estate - Diversified median · lower = cheaper

EV/EBITDA 21.5× · Priciest 25%

PEG 4.11× · Priciest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

This stock

Sector peers

VALUE (fair-value potential)100 · sector 41

FUTURE (revenue growth)100 · sector 24

PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 20

HEALTH (low debt)0 · sector 74

DIVIDEND (yield)93 · sector 61

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Real Estate - Diversified stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock	Price	Fair Value	vs Fair Value
Swiss Prime Site AG SPSN	CHF 124.50	CHF 44.83	−64%
Central Pattana Public Company CPN	63.00 THB	71.37 THB	+13%
The Phoenix Mills Limited PHOENIXLTD	₹1,978	₹405.25	−80%
Prestige Estates Projects Limited PRESTIGE	₹1,478	₹297.85	−80%
Umm Al Qura for Development and Construction Company 4325	17.15 SAR	15.41 SAR	−10%
Hainan Airport Infrastructure Co 600515	¥2.69	¥0.7900	−71%
Allreal Holding ALLN	CHF 193.00	CHF 84.23	−56%
Parque Arauco S.A PARAUCO	3,670 CLP	3,708 CLP	+1%
The St. Joe Company JOE	$65.30	$34.53	−47%
Singapore Land Group U06	3.14 SGD	3.18 SGD	+1%

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China Merchants Land Ltd · Fair Value
HK$0.5830 +59%Fair Value
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<a href="https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/0978" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener" style="display:inline-flex;align-items:center;gap:12px;box-sizing:border-box;font-family:system-ui,-apple-system,Segoe UI,Roboto,sans-serif;text-decoration:none;background:#0f1814;color:#eaf2ed;border:1px solid #2a3a30;border-radius:12px;padding:12px 16px;max-width:360px"><span style="line-height:1.35"><span style="font-size:12px;color:#9fb0a8">China Merchants Land Ltd · Fair Value</span><br><b style="font-size:20px">HK$0.5830</b> <span style="color:var(--fvc-g-mitte);font-weight:700;font-size:14px">+59%</span></span><span style="font-size:11px;color:var(--fvc-g-mitte);font-weight:700;margin-left:auto;text-align:right;line-height:1.3">Fair&nbsp;Value<br>Calculator&nbsp;→</span></a>

Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "China Merchants Land Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/0978

Frequently asked questions

Is China Merchants Land Ltd (0978) overvalued or undervalued?

As of Sep 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$0.5830 versus a price of HK$0.2400, about +143% upside (undervalued).

What is the fair value of 0978?

Our model-based fair value for China Merchants Land Ltd is HK$0.5830 (as of Sep 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$0.2400.

What is the quality score of 0978?

China Merchants Land Ltd has a Quality Score of 42/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.

What is the price target for China Merchants Land Ltd (0978)?

Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$0.5830 (as of Sep 27, 2026) from 1 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$0.4390, optimistic scenario HK$0.8700. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.

What is the China Merchants Land Ltd stock forecast for 2026?

Our models put fair value at HK$0.5830, about +143% upside versus a price of HK$0.2400 (undervalued). Cautious scenario HK$0.4390, optimistic scenario HK$0.8700. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.

What is the revenue of China Merchants Land Ltd (0978)?

China Merchants Land Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 26.3B CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 27, 2026).

Does China Merchants Land Ltd pay a dividend?

China Merchants Land Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 4.64% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 27, 2026).

What is the intrinsic value of China Merchants Land Ltd (0978)?

Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For China Merchants Land Ltd it is HK$0.5830 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026), against a price of HK$0.2400. It is the blended result of 1 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).

Is China Merchants Land Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?

As of Sep 27, 2026, 0978 trades below its calculated fair value: price HK$0.2400, fair value HK$0.5830, a gap of about +143% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.

Is fair value the same as the market price of 0978?

No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$0.2400); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$0.5830). For China Merchants Land Ltd the two are HK$0.3430 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.

How much is China Merchants Land Ltd worth?

The market values China Merchants Land Ltd at about HK$1.2B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 27, 2026). Per share that is HK$0.2400; our models calculate a fair value of HK$0.5830 per share.

What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 0978?

Our models span a range for China Merchants Land Ltd: cautious scenario HK$0.4390, base HK$0.5830, optimistic HK$0.8700 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026, price HK$0.2400). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.

What is the PEG ratio of 0978?

The PEG ratio of China Merchants Land Ltd is 4.11 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 27, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.

How solid is the balance sheet of China Merchants Land Ltd (0978)?

Balance-sheet figures for China Merchants Land Ltd (as of Sep 27, 2026): return on equity −6.7%, debt of 4.68 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 42/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.

How far is 0978 from its 52-week high?

China Merchants Land Ltd trades at HK$0.2400, about 20% below its 52-week high of HK$0.3000 and 4% above the low of HK$0.2300 (as of Sep 29, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$0.5830 is for.

Which stocks are comparable to China Merchants Land Ltd?

From the same area (Real Estate) we also value Swiss Prime Site AG, Central Pattana Public Company, The Phoenix Mills Limited, Prestige Estates Projects Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.

Is China Merchants Land Ltd stock attractive at the current price?

The data as of Sep 27, 2026: price HK$0.2400, calculated fair value HK$0.5830 (+143%), Quality Score 42/100, from 1 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.

How is the fair value of 0978 calculated?

We run China Merchants Land Ltd through 1 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$0.5830, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.

Is it still worth investing in stocks now?

The global stock market currently sits 14.9 % above its aggregate fair value. China Merchants Land Ltd currently trades 59 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.

What is the share price of China Merchants Land Ltd (0978)?

The closing price on Sep 29, 2026 was HK$0.2400. Our model-based fair value is HK$0.5830, about +143% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.

What should I pay attention to with China Merchants Land Ltd right now?

The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (42/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain. The price is below even our cautious bear case (HK$0.4390). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range (HK$0.4390 to HK$0.8700) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Key figures of China Merchants Land Ltd

How large is the market capitalisation of China Merchants Land Ltd (0978)?

The market capitalisation of China Merchants Land Ltd is HK$1.2B (≈ $150M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.

What is the P/S ratio of China Merchants Land Ltd (0978)?

The price-to-sales ratio of China Merchants Land Ltd is 0.04 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.

What are the earnings per share of China Merchants Land Ltd (0978)?

Earnings per share at China Merchants Land Ltd are HK$−0.0500. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.

What is the dividend yield of China Merchants Land Ltd (0978)?

The dividend yield of China Merchants Land Ltd is 4.6%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.

What is the net margin of China Merchants Land Ltd (0978)?

The net margin of China Merchants Land Ltd is −8.4% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.

What is the return on equity of China Merchants Land Ltd (0978)?

The return on equity (ROE) of China Merchants Land Ltd is −6.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.

What is the EBIT return on assets of China Merchants Land Ltd (0978)?

On an EBIT basis the return on assets of China Merchants Land Ltd is 1.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.

What is the operating margin of China Merchants Land Ltd (0978)?

The operating margin of China Merchants Land Ltd is 2.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.

How fast is revenue growing at China Merchants Land Ltd (0978)?

Revenue at China Merchants Land Ltd is growing +38.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg −4.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.

How fast are earnings growing at China Merchants Land Ltd (0978)?

Earnings per share at China Merchants Land Ltd are growing −38.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.

How much free cash flow does China Merchants Land Ltd (0978) generate?

The free cash flow of China Merchants Land Ltd is −2.7B CNY (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.

How much net debt does China Merchants Land Ltd (0978) carry?

The net debt of China Merchants Land Ltd is 20.6B CNY (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.

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