China Merchants Land Limited (0978) Fair Value & Analysis
Real Estate · HK · Market cap HK$1.2B
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 1 valuation models · updated 2 days ago
Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from HK$0.6030 to HK$0.6000 (−0.5%) since Aug 5, 2026. Share price −1.7% over the past month.
Below-average quality, screening 153% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (42/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain.
- The price is below even our cautious bear case (HK$0.4440). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
- The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
- A fairly wide model range (HK$0.4440 to HK$0.8880) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$0.1820 – HK$0.8958 · fair‑value band HK$0.4440 – HK$0.8880 · the HK$0.2370 price screens below the HK$0.6000 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
China Merchants Land Limited (0978) currently trades at HK$0.2370, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$0.6000, implying the stock looks roughly 153.2% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 42/100 (below-average quality), in the Real Estate sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: low), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, China Merchants Land Limited generated revenue of HK$26.3B at a net margin of -8.4%. Revenue grew 38.5% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -6.7%. Net debt stands at HK$20.6B. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from HK$0.4440 (bear case) to HK$0.8880 (bull case); at HK$0.2370, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 27% below its 52-week high and 4% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at -34% fair-value upside, at 153%, 0978 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 1 models by family
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 39 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 34
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
China Merchants Land Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the property development business in China and Hong Kong. It operates in two segments, Properties and Asset Management.
Full company description
China Merchants Land Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the property development business in China and Hong Kong. It operates in two segments, Properties and Asset Management. The company develops, sells, and leases residential properties; and residential and commercial complex properties, including apartments, villas, offices, retail shops, and others. It also provides asset management services for office premises and shopping malls; and real estate investment trust management services. The company was formerly known as Tonic Industries Holdings Limited and changed its name to China Merchants Land Limited in November 2013. China Merchants Land Limited was founded in 1997 and is headquartered in Central, Hong Kong. The company operates as a subsidiary of Success Well Investments Limited.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
China Merchants Land Limited reported revenue of HK$26.3B in FY2025 versus HK$25.9B in FY2021, a compound +0.3%/yr. Reported net income was −HK$2.2B in FY2025.
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Peer Group
Real Estate - Diversified · 138 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Real Estate - Diversified median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Real Estate - Diversified stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Swiss Prime Site AG SPSN | CHF 128.80 | CHF 44.83 | -65% |
| Central Pattana Public Company CPN | 66.00 THB | 71.37 THB | +8% |
| Prestige Estates Projects Limited PRESTIGE | ₹1,591 | ₹645.21 | -59% |
| The Phoenix Mills Limited PHOENIXLTD | ₹1,905 | ₹701.74 | -63% |
| Umm Al Qura for Development and Construction Company 4325 | 17.55 SAR | 11.60 SAR | -34% |
| Fastighets AB BALDB | kr 54.08 | kr 70.70 | +31% |
| Hainan Airport Infrastructure Co 600515 | ¥2.94 | ¥0.3300 | -89% |
| Parque Arauco S.A PARAUCO | 3,954 CLP | 2,740 CLP | -31% |
| Shenzhen Special Economic Zone Real Estate & Properties (Group) Co 000029 | ¥23.19 | ¥4.60 | -80% |
| Corporación Inmobiliaria Vesta, S.A. VESTA | 59.57 MXN | 52.49 MXN | -12% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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