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Deep Source Holdings (0990) Fair Value & Analysis

Basic Materials · HK · Market cap HK$7.5B

DS Deep Source Holdings 0990 · HK
PriceHK$0.5750
Fair ValueHK$0.5023
Upside-12.6%
Quality53/100
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Mixed Growth
Thin margins · 3.4% net margin
Low debt · generates free cash flow
Ranks above peers (13/14)
Narrow moat 30/100
Evidence: Medium Range HK$0.3792 – HK$0.6303 Share as image

Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026

From 24 valuation models · updated 2 days ago

Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from HK$1.02 to HK$0.5023 (−50.8%) since Aug 5, 2026. Share price +6.5% over the past month.

A solid business, but screening 13% overvalued on our models.

What matters now

  • Solid but not exceptional quality (53/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
  • Our model range runs from HK$0.3792 (bear) to HK$0.6303 (bull), base HK$0.5023. The closer the price sits to the lower half, the larger the margin of safety.
  • Quality 53/100 (solid quality) with medium evidence: read the verdict with care.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

HK$1.62 HK$0.3150 Fair Value HK$0.5023 Mar 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range HK$0.3150 – HK$1.62 · fair‑value band HK$0.3792 – HK$0.6303 · the HK$0.5750 price screens above the HK$0.5023 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

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Analysis

Deep Source Holdings (0990) currently trades at HK$0.5750, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$0.5023, implying the stock looks roughly 12.6% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 53/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).

Over the trailing twelve months, Deep Source Holdings generated revenue of HK$21.4B at a net margin of 3.4%. Revenue declined 21.7% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 10.5%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of HK$7.1B. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026

Our scenario range runs from HK$0.3792 (bear case) to HK$0.6303 (bull case); at HK$0.5750, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 42% below its 52-week high and 20% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at -22% fair-value upside, at -13%, 0990 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
Growth DCF HK$3.47 HK$6.13 HK$10.41 80
Residual Income HK$0.4300 HK$0.4700 HK$0.7000 76
Rev-Margin DCF HK$1.89 HK$2.58 HK$4.06 74
All 24 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF HK$3.66 HK$5.35 HK$10.62 38
Owner Earnings HK$1.27 HK$2.18 HK$4.03 31
5Y Revenue Exit HK$1.78 HK$2.32 HK$3.40 39
5Y EBITDA Exit HK$1.80 HK$2.35 HK$3.42 41
5Y P/E Exit HK$1.98 HK$3.20 HK$4.75 38
10Y Revenue Exit HK$2.35 HK$3.63 HK$4.17 36
10Y EBITDA Exit HK$2.38 HK$3.67 HK$5.59 37
10Y P/E Exit HK$2.51 HK$4.05 HK$6.34 35
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd HK$0.3300 HK$2.31 HK$3.24 54
Lynch FV HK$1.19 HK$1.70 HK$2.21 50
PEG = 1.0 HK$1.19 HK$1.70 HK$2.21 46
EPV HK$0.9200 HK$0.9800 HK$1.04 59
Multiples
P/E Multiple HK$0.7700 HK$1.02 HK$1.28 63
P/S Multiple HK$0.6200 HK$0.8300 HK$1.03 58
P/B Multiple HK$0.6200 HK$0.8300 HK$1.03 55
EV/EBIT HK$1.17 HK$1.39 HK$1.60 53
EV/EBITDA HK$1.04 HK$1.21 HK$1.39 54
EV/Revenue HK$0.9900 HK$1.18 HK$1.38 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) HK$0.2500 HK$0.3300 HK$0.5000 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF HK$3.47 HK$6.13 HK$10.41 80
Rev-Margin DCF HK$1.89 HK$2.58 HK$4.06 74
Economic Profit
Residual Income HK$0.4300 HK$0.4700 HK$0.7000 76
ROIC Compounder HK$0.9200 HK$0.9800 HK$1.04 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E HK$1.56 HK$2.23 HK$2.89 68

Widest divergence: DCF Models (HK$3.20) versus Asset-Based (HK$0.3300). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

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Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) HK$21.4B
Revenue growth (YoY) -21.7%
Net margin 3.4%
Return on equity 10.5%
Free cash flow HK$2.9B FY2025
P/E ratio 10.2 as of Jul 2, 2026
More key figures
Operating margin 4.1%
EPS (TTM) HK$0.0200
EPS growth (YoY) +20,057%
Net cash HK$7.1B FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 53/100

Of which business quality 57 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 18

Profitability 35
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 40
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 79
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 77
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 41
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 39
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 8
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 9
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 61
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Deep Source Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the processing, distribution, and trading of bulk commodities and related products in the People's Republic of China, Hong Kong, and Singapore.

Full company description

Deep Source Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the processing, distribution, and trading of bulk commodities and related products in the People's Republic of China, Hong Kong, and Singapore. The company also provides securities and derivatives financial services, margin financing services, fund management services, futures contract brokerage services, clearing services, financial derivatives consulting services, commodity trading services, inter-dealer broking in over-the-counter markets, facilitate trading, and derivative trading services. In addition, it engages in money lending business; the brokerage of physical commodities; trade facilitation services in physical gold and silver; distribution and trading of petrochemicals products; loan financing activities; and freight services agency business. The company was formerly known as Theme International Holdings Limited and changed its name to Deep Source Holdings Limited in July 2025. The company was incorporated in 1993 and is headquartered in Sheung Wan, Hong Kong. Deep Source Holdings Limited operates as a subsidiary of Wide Bridge Limited.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Deep Source Holdings reported revenue of HK$21.4B in FY2025 versus HK$34.6B in FY2021, a compound −11.4%/yr. Reported net income was HK$720M in FY2025, compounding −7.8%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 82/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
HK$21.4B
Avg. growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+5.7%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+29.4%
Avg. growth/yr (25Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+22.5%
Revenue −11.4%/yr
FY21 HK$34.6B
FY22 HK$39.1B
FY23 HK$55.4B
FY24 HK$40.9B
FY25 HK$21.4B
Net income −7.8%/yr
FY21 HK$998M
FY22 HK$1.2B
FY23 HK$1.2B
FY24 HK$296M
FY25 HK$720M

0990 screens 13% overvalued. Compare with JSW Steel Limited →

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Deep Source Holdings · Fair Value
HK$0.5023 −13%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Deep Source Holdings Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/0990

Peer Group

Steel · 380 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 53 · Above median
Fair Value upside −13% · Above median
Return on equity (TTM) 11% · Top 25%
Return on assets 2% · Above median
Net margin (TTM) 3% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM) 4% · Above median
Revenue growth -22% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM) 3.6% · Above median

Valuation Multiples vs Steel median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 10.2× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/B 1.03× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM) 0.35× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF 0.3× · Cheaper than median
PEG 0.26× · Cheaper than 75% of peers

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 17 · sector 15
FUTURE 0 · sector 5
PAST 42 · sector 16
HEALTH 100 · sector 95
DIVIDEND 71 · sector 55

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Steel stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
JSW Steel Limited JSWSTEEL ₹1,269 ₹1,140 -10%
Tata Steel Limited TATASTEEL ₹186.20 ₹145.39 -22%
China Steel Corporation 2002A 37.25 TWD 8.74 TWD -77%
POSCO Holdings 005490 325,000 KRW 155,270 KRW -52%
Companhia Siderúrgica Nacional, SID 13,670 ARS 15,838 ARS +16%
Jindal Steel Limited JINDALSTEL ₹1,112 ₹516.27 -54%
Lloyds Metals and Energy Limited LLOYDSME ₹1,894 ₹771.10 -59%
Gerdau S.A GGBN 83.50 MXN 39.22 MXN -53%
Ternium S.A TXR 17,780 ARS 27,472 ARS +55%
NMDC Limited NMDC ₹85.00 ₹112.98 +33%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Deep Source Holdings (0990) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$0.5023 versus a price of HK$0.5750, about −13% (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 0990?
Our model-based fair value for Deep Source Holdings is HK$0.5023 (as of Aug 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is HK$0.5750.
What is the quality score of 0990?
Deep Source Holdings has a Quality Score of 53/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Deep Source Holdings (0990)?
Deep Source Holdings reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$21.4B (latest available figure, as of Aug 13, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of 0990?
The net profit margin of Deep Source Holdings is about 3.4%, meaning it keeps roughly 3.4% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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