Xiaocaiyuan International Holding (0999) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · HK · Market cap HK$8.2B
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 2 days ago
Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from HK$14.21 to HK$15.65 (+10.1%) since Aug 5, 2026. Share price +14.2% over the past month.
A solid business, screening 99% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- The rarer combination: high quality (70/100) AND below fair value. That earns a closer look rather than a quick verdict.
- The price is below even our cautious bear case (HK$10.16). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
- A fairly wide model range (HK$10.16 to HK$19.56) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (20 months)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
20‑month range HK$6.20 – HK$11.42 · fair‑value band HK$10.16 – HK$19.56 · the HK$7.85 price screens below the HK$15.65 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
Xiaocaiyuan International Holding (0999) currently trades at HK$7.85, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$15.65, implying the stock looks roughly 99.5% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 70/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, Xiaocaiyuan International Holding generated revenue of HK$5.3B at a net margin of 13.4%. Revenue declined 1.2% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 29.8%. Net debt stands at HK$37.4M. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from HK$10.16 (bear case) to HK$19.56 (bull case); at HK$7.85, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat. The share trades about 34% below its 52-week high and 27% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at -51% fair-value upside, at 99%, 0999 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (HK$16.72) versus Asset-Based (HK$1.40). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 71 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 34
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Xiaocaiyuan International Holding Ltd., an investment holding company, engages in the restaurant business in the People's Republic of China. The company also provides catering delivery services and supply chain management solutions. It operates restaurants under the Xiaocaiyuan, Fuxinglou, and Caishou brand names.
Full company description
Xiaocaiyuan International Holding Ltd., an investment holding company, engages in the restaurant business in the People's Republic of China. The company also provides catering delivery services and supply chain management solutions. It operates restaurants under the Xiaocaiyuan, Fuxinglou, and Caishou brand names. The company was founded in 2013 and is headquartered in Tongling, the People's Republic of China.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Xiaocaiyuan International Holding reported revenue of HK$5.3B in FY2025 versus HK$2.6B in FY2021, a compound +19.2%/yr. Reported net income was HK$715M in FY2025, compounding +33.2%/yr from FY2021.
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Peer Group
Restaurants · 226 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Restaurants median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Restaurants stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| McDonald's Corporation MCDS | C$24.01 | C$10.84 | -55% |
| Starbucks Corporation SBUX | $108.49 | $35.83 | -67% |
| Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc CMG | $32.00 | $17.92 | -44% |
| Yum! Brands, Inc YUM | $150.34 | $58.17 | -61% |
| Restaurant Brands International Inc QSR | C$104.50 | C$36.37 | -65% |
| Darden Restaurants, Inc DRI | $218.90 | $173.68 | -21% |
| Yum China Holdings YUMC | $47.90 | $54.27 | +13% |
| Texas Roadhouse, Inc TXRH | $214.28 | $104.89 | -51% |
| Dutch Bros Inc BROS | $51.02 | $12.80 | -75% |
| Domino's Pizza, Inc DPZ | $353.72 | $227.31 | -36% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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