Xiaocaiyuan Intl Hldg Ltd (0999) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 12, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Xiaocaiyuan Intl Hldg Ltd stock HK$15.87, price HK$7.81, upside +103.3%, quality 71 out of 100. Rating: strongly undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 12, 2026.
How to read this chart
23‑month range HK$6.01 – HK$11.08 · fair‑value band HK$9.46 – HK$21.53 · the HK$7.81 price screens below the HK$15.87 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 12, 2026.
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Xiaocaiyuan International Holding Ltd., an investment holding company, engages in the restaurant business in the People's Republic of China. The company also provides catering delivery services and supply chain management solutions.
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It operates restaurants under the Xiaocaiyuan, Fuxinglou, and Caishou brand names. The company was founded in 2013 and is headquartered in Tongling, the People's Republic of China.
Stock analysis
Xiaocaiyuan Intl Hldg Ltd (0999) currently trades at HK$7.81, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$15.87, implying the stock looks roughly 51% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of HK$16.79 per share, and 20 of the 26 models we run sit above the HK$7.81 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at HK$6.67, and 6 of the 26 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: HK$9.46 (bear) to HK$21.53 (bull), the price of HK$7.81 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 71/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Xiaocaiyuan Intl Hldg Ltd reported revenue of 5.3B CNY in FY2025 versus 2.6B CNY in FY2021, a compound +19.2%/yr. Reported net income was 715M CNY in FY2025, compounding +33.2%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap HK$9.1B (≈ $1.2B) Small · P/E ratio 10.9 · P/S ratio 1.46 · EPS (TTM) HK$0.7147 · Dividend yield 6.4% · Net margin 13.4% · Return on equity 26.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) 27.9% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 71 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 25% below its 52-week high and 30% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −18% fair-value upside, at 103%, 0999 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
BearHK$9.46Fair Value HK$15.87BullHK$21.53
Price HK$7.81 · Upside +103.3%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.100/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+2.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+18.5%
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+32.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+25.8%
Dividend (yield on the price)6.4%
Profit margin 2021 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.13% → 19%
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−2.2%
The company could shrink this much every year for the next five years and today's price would still be justified.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+11.6%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in CNY, China: IMF forecast 1.7% a year to 2030, 1.4% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −3.8% a year for the price and +9.7% for the forecasts.
Compare Xiaocaiyuan Intl Hldg Ltd with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Restaurants · 205 stocks
Beats the industry median on 11/13 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score71 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+103.3% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)26.0% · Top 25%
Return on assets18.8% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)11.3% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)13.8% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)7.0% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)6.4% · Top 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Restaurants median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)10.9× · Cheapest 25%
P/B3.17× · Pricier than median
P/S (12 months)1.40× · Pricier than median
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year)10.2× · Cheaper than median
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Is Xiaocaiyuan Intl Hldg Ltd (0999) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 12, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$15.87 versus a price of HK$7.81, about +103% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 0999?
Our model-based fair value for Xiaocaiyuan Intl Hldg Ltd is HK$15.87 (as of Nov 12, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$7.81.
What is the quality score of 0999?
Xiaocaiyuan Intl Hldg Ltd has a Quality Score of 71/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Xiaocaiyuan Intl Hldg Ltd (0999)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$15.87 (as of Nov 12, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$9.46, optimistic scenario HK$21.53. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Xiaocaiyuan Intl Hldg Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$15.87, about +103% upside versus a price of HK$7.81 (undervalued). Cautious scenario HK$9.46, optimistic scenario HK$21.53. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Xiaocaiyuan Intl Hldg Ltd (0999)?
Xiaocaiyuan Intl Hldg Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 5.5B CNY (latest available figure, as of Nov 12, 2026).
Does Xiaocaiyuan Intl Hldg Ltd pay a dividend?
Xiaocaiyuan Intl Hldg Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of 6.43% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 12, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Xiaocaiyuan Intl Hldg Ltd (0999) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Xiaocaiyuan Intl Hldg Ltd pays a dividend of HK$0.502 per share a year, a dividend yield of 6.4%. The last ex-dividend date was Aug 27, 2026. The payout ratio is 69.4% of earnings. Free cash flow covers the dividend 1.53 times. Our assessment: Sustainable. Payout and cash coverage both look sustainable.
What growth is priced into Xiaocaiyuan Intl Hldg Ltd (0999)?
Today's price is already fair in a discounted-cash-flow model if free cash flow at Xiaocaiyuan Intl Hldg Ltd shrinks by 2.2 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.8 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 4 years revenue grew 19.2 % per year. As of Nov 12, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 0999 use?
Our models discount Xiaocaiyuan Intl Hldg Ltd at 11.8 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), country premium for Hong Kong. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Xiaocaiyuan Intl Hldg Ltd that is -2.2 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (11.8 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Xiaocaiyuan Intl Hldg Ltd (0999) delivered so far?
Over the past 4 years revenue at Xiaocaiyuan Intl Hldg Ltd grew 19.2 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of -2.2 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Xiaocaiyuan Intl Hldg Ltd (0999) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +8.4 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Xiaocaiyuan Intl Hldg Ltd (-2.2 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Xiaocaiyuan Intl Hldg Ltd (0999)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 9.81 %: that much free cash flow Xiaocaiyuan Intl Hldg Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.8 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Xiaocaiyuan Intl Hldg Ltd (0999)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Xiaocaiyuan Intl Hldg Ltd it is HK$15.87 per share (as of Nov 12, 2026), against a price of HK$7.81. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models in 8 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Xiaocaiyuan Intl Hldg Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 12, 2026, 0999 trades below its calculated fair value: price HK$7.81, fair value HK$15.87, a gap of about +103% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 0999?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$7.81); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$15.87). For Xiaocaiyuan Intl Hldg Ltd the two are HK$8.07 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Xiaocaiyuan Intl Hldg Ltd worth?
The market values Xiaocaiyuan Intl Hldg Ltd at about HK$9.1B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 12, 2026). Per share that is HK$7.81; our models calculate a fair value of HK$15.87 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 0999?
Our models span a range for Xiaocaiyuan Intl Hldg Ltd: cautious scenario HK$9.46, base HK$15.87, optimistic HK$21.53 per share (as of Nov 12, 2026, price HK$7.81). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 0999?
Xiaocaiyuan Intl Hldg Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 10.9 (as of Nov 12, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of HK$15.87 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 3.2, P/S 1.4, EV/EBITDA 7.1.
How solid is the balance sheet of Xiaocaiyuan Intl Hldg Ltd (0999)?
Balance-sheet figures for Xiaocaiyuan Intl Hldg Ltd (as of Nov 12, 2026): return on equity 26.0%. They feed the Quality Score of 71/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 0999 from its 52-week high?
Xiaocaiyuan Intl Hldg Ltd trades at HK$7.81, about 25% below its 52-week high of HK$10.42 and 30% above the low of HK$6.01 (as of Nov 12, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$15.87 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Xiaocaiyuan Intl Hldg Ltd?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value McDonald's Corporation, Starbucks Corporation, Yum! Brands, Inc, Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Xiaocaiyuan Intl Hldg Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 12, 2026: price HK$7.81, calculated fair value HK$15.87 (+103%), Quality Score 71/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 0999 calculated?
We run Xiaocaiyuan Intl Hldg Ltd through 26 models from 8 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of HK$15.87 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1% above its aggregate fair value. Xiaocaiyuan Intl Hldg Ltd currently trades 51% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Xiaocaiyuan Intl Hldg Ltd (0999)?
The closing price on Nov 12, 2026 was HK$7.81. Our model-based fair value is HK$15.87, about +103% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Xiaocaiyuan Intl Hldg Ltd right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (HK$9.46). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid quality (71/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. A fairly wide model range (HK$9.46 to HK$21.53) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Xiaocaiyuan Intl Hldg Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Xiaocaiyuan Intl Hldg Ltd (0999)?
The market capitalisation of Xiaocaiyuan Intl Hldg Ltd is HK$9.1B (≈ $1.2B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Xiaocaiyuan Intl Hldg Ltd (0999)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Xiaocaiyuan Intl Hldg Ltd is 1.46 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Xiaocaiyuan Intl Hldg Ltd (0999)?
Earnings per share at Xiaocaiyuan Intl Hldg Ltd are HK$0.7147 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 10.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Xiaocaiyuan Intl Hldg Ltd (0999)?
The dividend yield of Xiaocaiyuan Intl Hldg Ltd is 6.4% (payout 70.2%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Xiaocaiyuan Intl Hldg Ltd (0999)?
The net margin of Xiaocaiyuan Intl Hldg Ltd is 13.4% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Xiaocaiyuan Intl Hldg Ltd (0999)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Xiaocaiyuan Intl Hldg Ltd is 26.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Xiaocaiyuan Intl Hldg Ltd (0999)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Xiaocaiyuan Intl Hldg Ltd is 27.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Xiaocaiyuan Intl Hldg Ltd (0999)?
The operating margin of Xiaocaiyuan Intl Hldg Ltd is 13.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Xiaocaiyuan Intl Hldg Ltd (0999)?
Revenue at Xiaocaiyuan Intl Hldg Ltd is growing 7.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg +18.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Xiaocaiyuan Intl Hldg Ltd (0999)?
Earnings per share at Xiaocaiyuan Intl Hldg Ltd are down 24.2% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Xiaocaiyuan Intl Hldg Ltd (0999) carry?
The net debt of Xiaocaiyuan Intl Hldg Ltd is 37.4M CNY (fiscal year 2022, ≈ 0.0 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Thin data
Nov 12, 2026