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Catena AB (0GVS) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Catena AB SEK 318, price SEK 342, upside -6.9%, quality 38 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? No
- Good quality? No
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Broad data
Sep 24, 2026
Catena AB
0GVS · LSELow PriorityFair Value upside is limited and quality is weak.
·Fair value kr 318.20 · Fairly valued (−6.9%)
!Quality 38/100
!Expensive Growth (revenue 5y +16.2 %/yr)
✓Highly profitable · 75.0% net margin (TTM)
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
✓2.8% dividend yield · Well covered
✓Wide moat 69/100
!The models disagree: range kr 180.96 to kr 616.71
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What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range kr 281.99 – kr 558.97 · fair‑value band kr 180.96 – kr 616.71 · the kr 341.80 price screens above the kr 318.20 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
Company profile
Catena AB (publ) owns, develops, manages, and sells logistics properties in Sweden and Denmark. It provides terminals for immediate transshipment; logistics warehouses for storage; distribution centers; warehouses for cold storage; fully automated warehouses; omni warehouses; and city logistics.
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Catena AB (publ) owns, develops, manages, and sells logistics properties in Sweden and Denmark. It provides terminals for immediate transshipment; logistics warehouses for storage; distribution centers; warehouses for cold storage; fully automated warehouses; omni warehouses; and city logistics. The company was founded in 1967 and is headquartered in Helsingborg, Sweden.
Stock analysis
Catena AB (0GVS) currently trades at kr 341.80, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is kr 318.20, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 7.4%).
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of kr 3,081 per share, and 16 of the 16 models we run sit above the kr 341.80 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at kr 600.48, and 0 of the 16 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: kr 180.96 (bear) to kr 616.71 (bull), the price of kr 341.80 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 38/100 (below-average quality), in the Real Estate sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Catena AB reported revenue of 2.7B SEK in FY2025 versus 1.4B SEK in FY2021, a compound +17.8%/yr. Reported net income was 1.6B SEK in FY2025, compounding −11.6%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 5.4B SEK (≈ $537M) · P/E ratio 0.1 · P/S ratio 0.04 · EPS (TTM) kr 68.99 · Dividend yield 2.8% · Net margin 61.7% · Return on equity 8.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.9%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 52 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 31% below its 52-week high and at its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at −48% fair-value upside, at −7%, 0GVS screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear kr 180.96
Fair Value kr 318.20
Bull kr 616.71
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (kr 44.99 per share) are deliberately not added.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF
kr 1,899
kr 2,997
kr 6,278
76
Residual Income
kr 1,574
kr 1,613
kr 1,741
76
Growth DCF
kr 1,748
kr 3,378
kr 5,938
75
All 16 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF
kr 1,899
kr 2,997
kr 6,278
76
5Y Revenue Exit
kr 1,114
kr 2,101
kr 4,150
68
5Y EBITDA Exit
kr 1,922
kr 3,732
kr 7,279
71
10Y Revenue Exit
kr 1,345
kr 3,081
kr 4,054
66
10Y EBITDA Exit
kr 1,927
kr 4,668
kr 9,383
63
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM
kr 364.80
kr 657.36
kr 904.93
68
DDM Multi-Stage
kr 364.80
kr 600.48
kr 702.22
67
Multiples
P/S Multiple
kr 1,124
kr 1,498
kr 1,873
58
P/B Multiple
kr 1,813
kr 2,417
kr 3,021
55
EV/EBIT
kr 2,588
kr 3,613
kr 4,639
66
EV/EBITDA
kr 1,892
kr 2,686
kr 3,479
67
EV/Revenue
kr 641.36
kr 1,125
kr 1,610
52
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
kr 1,036
kr 1,389
kr 2,073
54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF
kr 1,748
kr 3,378
kr 5,938
75
Rev-Margin DCF
kr 1,125
kr 2,288
kr 4,615
68
Economic Profit
Residual Income
kr 1,574
kr 1,613
kr 1,741
76
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
38/100
Of which business quality 40 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 29
Profitability
36
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
62
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
58
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
49
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
21
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
61
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
21
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
7
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
0
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+23.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+20.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+16.2%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +18.8% a year
Revenue growth 20 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+29.8%
’14
’15
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis.
+4.7%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+1.9%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.8%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−7.6% vs 7.3%, slowing
Profit margin 2021 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.97% → 81%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and about what analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+12.6%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+9.8%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (Sweden: IMF forecast 2.0% a year to 2030, 2.9% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +10.5% a year for the price and +7.6% for the forecasts.
Forecast 2026 (sales)+18.7%
Forecast 2027 (sales)+8.9%
Projected 2028 (sales)+8.1%
Projected 2029 (sales)+7.2%
Projected 2030 (sales)+6.3%
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Real Estate - Diversified · 130 stocks
Beats the industry median on 10/12 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation Multiplesvs Real Estate - Diversified median · lower = cheaper
Context: sector, industry, market
- Is the Real Estate sector expensive or cheap?
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Undervalued stocks: Real Estate
- Undervalued stocks: UK Stocks
- Valuation of the UK market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
Similar stocks
10 more Real Estate - Diversified stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Henderson Land Development Company 0012 | HK$26.22 | HK$19.85 | −24% |
| Swiss Prime Site AG SPSN | CHF 119.10 | CHF 44.83 | −62% |
| Central Pattana Public Company CPN | 63.00 THB | 71.37 THB | +13% |
| The Phoenix Mills Limited PHOENIXLTD | ₹1,978 | ₹405.25 | −80% |
| Prestige Estates Projects Limited PRESTIGE | ₹1,478 | ₹297.85 | −80% |
| Umm Al Qura for Development and Construction Company 4325 | 17.15 SAR | 15.41 SAR | −10% |
| Hainan Airport Infrastructure Co 600515 | ¥2.69 | ¥0.7900 | −71% |
| Allreal Holding ALLN | CHF 193.00 | CHF 84.23 | −56% |
| Parque Arauco S.A PARAUCO | 3,630 CLP | 3,708 CLP | +2% |
| The St. Joe Company JOE | $66.01 | $34.53 | −48% |
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Frequently asked questions
Is Catena AB (0GVS) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of kr 318.20 versus a price of kr 341.80, about −7% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of 0GVS?
Our model-based fair value for Catena AB is kr 318.20 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: kr 341.80.
What is the quality score of 0GVS?
Catena AB has a Quality Score of 38/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Catena AB (0GVS)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of kr 318.20 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 16 valuation models. Cautious scenario kr 180.96, optimistic scenario kr 616.71. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Catena AB stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at kr 318.20, about −7% upside versus a price of kr 341.80 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario kr 180.96, optimistic scenario kr 616.71. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Catena AB (0GVS)?
Catena AB reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 2.9B SEK (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Catena AB pay a dividend?
Catena AB currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.78% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Catena AB (0GVS)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Catena AB would have to grow free cash flow by +12.6 % per year for five years (discount rate 12.6 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +16.2 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 0GVS use?
Our models discount Catena AB at 12.6 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 1.26, country premium for United Kingdom. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Catena AB that is +12.6 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (12.6 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Catena AB (0GVS) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Catena AB grew +16.2 % a year. The price currently implies +12.6 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Catena AB (0GVS) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.0 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Catena AB (+12.6 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Catena AB (0GVS)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 7.63 %: that much free cash flow Catena AB produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (12.6 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Catena AB (0GVS)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Catena AB it is kr 318.20 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of kr 341.80. It is the blended result of 16 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Catena AB stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, 0GVS trades above its calculated fair value: price kr 341.80, fair value kr 318.20, a gap of about −7% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 0GVS?
No. The price is what the market pays today (kr 341.80); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (kr 318.20). For Catena AB the two are kr 23.60 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Catena AB worth?
The market values Catena AB at about 5.4B SEK (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is kr 341.80; our models calculate a fair value of kr 318.20 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 0GVS?
Our models span a range for Catena AB: cautious scenario kr 180.96, base kr 318.20, optimistic kr 616.71 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price kr 341.80). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 0GVS?
Catena AB trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 0.1 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of kr 318.20 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/S 0.2, EV/EBITDA 2.7.
How solid is the balance sheet of Catena AB (0GVS)?
Balance-sheet figures for Catena AB (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 8.5%, debt of 0.25 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 38/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 0GVS from its 52-week high?
Catena AB trades at kr 341.80, about 31% below its 52-week high of kr 494.77 and at the low of kr 341.80 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of kr 318.20 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Catena AB?
From the same area (Real Estate) we also value Henderson Land Development Company, Swiss Prime Site AG, Central Pattana Public Company, The Phoenix Mills Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Catena AB stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price kr 341.80, calculated fair value kr 318.20 (−7%), Quality Score 38/100, from 16 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 0GVS calculated?
We run Catena AB through 16 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of kr 318.20, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Catena AB itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Catena AB (0GVS)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was kr 341.80. Our model-based fair value is kr 318.20, about −7% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Catena AB right now?
The model range is unusually wide (kr 180.96 to kr 616.71). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Where does the earnings growth of Catena AB (0GVS) come from?
Earnings per share at Catena AB grew +4.6 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +8.1 %, EBIT margin +2.9 %, tax rate −1.4 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −4.6 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Catena AB
How large is the market capitalisation of Catena AB (0GVS)?
The market capitalisation of Catena AB is 5.4B SEK (≈ $537M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Catena AB (0GVS)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Catena AB is 0.04 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Catena AB (0GVS)?
Earnings per share at Catena AB are kr 68.99 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 0.1). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Catena AB (0GVS)?
The dividend yield of Catena AB is 2.8% (payout 13.8%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Catena AB (0GVS)?
The net margin of Catena AB is 61.7% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Catena AB (0GVS)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Catena AB is 8.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Catena AB (0GVS)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Catena AB is 4.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Catena AB (0GVS)?
The operating margin of Catena AB is 84.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Catena AB (0GVS)?
Revenue at Catena AB is growing +25.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg +20.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Catena AB (0GVS)?
Earnings per share at Catena AB are growing +164% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Catena AB (0GVS) carry?
The net debt of Catena AB is 17.9B SEK (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 11.3 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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