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Deutsche Post AG (0H3Q) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Deutsche Post AG €55.20, price €56.66, upside -2.6%, quality 64 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? Yes
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Industrials · GB · Home Germany · ISIN DE0005552004

DP Broad data Sep 29, 2026

Deutsche Post AG

0H3Q · LSE

NeutralThe stock looks roughly fairly valued with average quality.

·Fair value €55.20 · Fairly valued (−2.6%)
✓Quality 64/100
!Mixed Growth (revenue 3y +3.4 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 4.3% net margin (TTM)
!Moderate debt
·3.4% dividend yield · Safety not assessed
!Moderate moat 47/100

What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

€58.40 €25.00 Fair Value €55.20 Jul 2021 Oct 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 29, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range €25.00 – €58.40 · fair‑value band €41.40 – €69.00 · the €56.66 price screens above the €55.20 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 29, 2026.

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Company profile

Deutsche Post AG operates as a mail and logistics company in Germany, rest of Europe, the Americas, the Asia Pacific, the Middle East, and Africa. The company operates through five segments: Express; Global Forwarding, Freight; Supply Chain; eCommerce; and Post & Parcel Germany.

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Deutsche Post AG operates as a mail and logistics company in Germany, rest of Europe, the Americas, the Asia Pacific, the Middle East, and Africa. The company operates through five segments: Express; Global Forwarding, Freight; Supply Chain; eCommerce; and Post & Parcel Germany. The Express segment offers time-definite courier and express services to business and private customers. The Global Forwarding, Freight segment provides air, ocean, and overland freight forwarding services; and offers multimodal and sector-specific solutions. The Supply Chain segment delivers customized logistics services and supply chain solutions to its customers based on modular components, including warehousing and transport and value-added services. The eCommerce segment provides parcel delivery and cross-border services. The Post & Parcel Germany segment transports, sorts, and delivers documents and goods; and additional services, such as registered mail, insured items, redirection, and storage, as well as export services. Deutsche Post AG was incorporated in 1995 and is headquartered in Bonn, Germany.

Stock analysis

Deutsche Post AG (0H3Q) currently trades at €56.66, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €55.20, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 2.6%).

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Valuation

Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of €90.89 per share, and 11 of the 24 models we run sit above the €56.66 price.

Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at €8.06, and 13 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.

Scenario range: €41.40 (bear) to €69.00 (bull), the price of €56.66 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 64/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.

Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.

Deutsche Post AG reported revenue of €66.8B in FY2020 versus €57.3B in FY2016, a compound +3.9%/yr. Reported net income was €3.0B in FY2020, compounding +3.1%/yr from FY2016.

Key figures

Market cap €64.9B · P/S ratio 0.78 · Dividend yield 3.4% · Net margin 4.5% · Return on equity 15.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 8.3% · Operating margin 7.2% · Revenue (TTM) €83.0B.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 52 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 3% below its 52-week high and 54% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −24% fair-value upside, at −3%, 0H3Q screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear €41.40 Fair Value €55.20 Bull €69.00
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF €97.54 €141.32 €203.28 77
Growth DCF €100.65 €141.59 €197.20 75
EPV €18.25 €21.93 €25.14 74
All 24 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF €97.54 €141.32 €203.28 77
5Y Revenue Exit €56.05 €76.72 €101.17 70
5Y EBITDA Exit €75.58 €111.26 €150.39 72
5Y P/E Exit €55.89 €76.43 €96.28 69
10Y Revenue Exit €69.65 €90.89 €115.50 65
10Y EBITDA Exit €82.92 €114.17 €151.18 66
10Y P/E Exit €70.64 €90.69 €111.95 62
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd €17.70 €40.00 €51.21 63
PEG = 1.0 €6.58 €9.40 €12.21 55
EPV €18.25 €21.93 €25.14 74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM €17.69 €28.97 €41.96 65
DDM Multi-Stage €17.69 €25.86 €34.99 64
Multiples
P/E Multiple €40.99 €54.66 €68.32 63
P/S Multiple €33.18 €44.25 €55.31 58
P/B Multiple €33.18 €44.25 €55.31 55
EV/EBIT €50.16 €68.16 €86.16 66
EV/EBITDA €72.64 €98.13 €123.62 67
EV/Revenue €34.71 €51.22 €67.74 53
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) €6.02 €8.06 €12.04 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF €100.65 €141.59 €197.20 75
Rev-Margin DCF €56.05 €78.45 €102.87 70
Economic Profit
Residual Income €15.70 €19.11 €28.33 72
ROIC Compounder €18.95 €24.12 €29.86 69
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E €30.69 €43.84 €56.99 65

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 64/100

Of which business quality 64 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 75

Profitability 68
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 46
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 87
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 44
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 74
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 63
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 72
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 94
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 62/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+5.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.4%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
6.1% (2016) → 7.3% (2020)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: no share-count history
not computed

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Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

Weapons Defense

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Deutsche Post AG · Fair Value
€55.20 −3%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Deutsche Post AG Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/0H3Q

Frequently asked questions

Is Deutsche Post AG (0H3Q) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 29, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €55.20 versus a price of €56.66, about −3% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of 0H3Q?
Our model-based fair value for Deutsche Post AG is €55.20 (as of Sep 29, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €56.66.
What is the quality score of 0H3Q?
Deutsche Post AG has a Quality Score of 64/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Deutsche Post AG (0H3Q)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €55.20 (as of Sep 29, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario €41.40, optimistic scenario €69.00. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Deutsche Post AG stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €55.20, about −3% upside versus a price of €56.66 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario €41.40, optimistic scenario €69.00. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Deutsche Post AG (0H3Q)?
Deutsche Post AG reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €83.0B (latest available figure, as of Sep 29, 2026).
Does Deutsche Post AG pay a dividend?
Deutsche Post AG currently shows a dividend yield of about 3.35% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 29, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Deutsche Post AG (0H3Q)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Deutsche Post AG it is €55.20 per share (as of Sep 29, 2026), against a price of €56.66. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Deutsche Post AG stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 29, 2026, 0H3Q trades above its calculated fair value: price €56.66, fair value €55.20, a gap of about −3% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 0H3Q?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€56.66); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€55.20). For Deutsche Post AG the two are €1.46 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Deutsche Post AG worth?
The market values Deutsche Post AG at about €64.9B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 29, 2026). Per share that is €56.66; our models calculate a fair value of €55.20 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 0H3Q?
Our models span a range for Deutsche Post AG: cautious scenario €41.40, base €55.20, optimistic €69.00 per share (as of Sep 29, 2026, price €56.66). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How far is 0H3Q from its 52-week high?
Deutsche Post AG trades at €56.66, about 3% below its 52-week high of €58.40 and 54% above the low of €36.80 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €55.20 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Deutsche Post AG?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value General Electric Company, RTX Corporation, Airbus SE, Lockheed Martin Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Deutsche Post AG stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 29, 2026: price €56.66, calculated fair value €55.20 (−3%), Quality Score 64/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 0H3Q calculated?
We run Deutsche Post AG through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of €55.20, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Deutsche Post AG itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Deutsche Post AG (0H3Q)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was €56.66. Our model-based fair value is €55.20, about −3% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Deutsche Post AG right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. The price sits in the upper half of our model range, so the margin of safety is thin. The data supports the verdict: every model runs on fully documented inputs.

Key figures of Deutsche Post AG

How large is the market capitalisation of Deutsche Post AG (0H3Q)?
The market capitalisation of Deutsche Post AG is €64.9B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Deutsche Post AG (0H3Q)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Deutsche Post AG is 0.78 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What is the dividend yield of Deutsche Post AG (0H3Q)?
The dividend yield of Deutsche Post AG is 3.4%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Deutsche Post AG (0H3Q)?
The net margin of Deutsche Post AG is 4.5% (fiscal year 2020). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Deutsche Post AG (0H3Q)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Deutsche Post AG is 15.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Deutsche Post AG (0H3Q)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Deutsche Post AG is 8.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Deutsche Post AG (0H3Q)?
The operating margin of Deutsche Post AG is 7.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Deutsche Post AG (0H3Q)?
Revenue at Deutsche Post AG is growing −1.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg +3.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Deutsche Post AG (0H3Q)?
Earnings per share at Deutsche Post AG are growing +7.2% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
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