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AGNC Investment Corp (0H6E) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of AGNC Investment Corp $56.89, price $8.89, upside +539.9%, quality 41 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? Yes
- Good quality? No
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Thin data
Sep 24, 2026
AGNC Investment Corp
0H6E · LSECheap, value-trap riskThe stock looks deeply undervalued, but low quality raises value-trap risk.
✓Fair value $56.89 · Strongly undervalued (+539.9%)
!Quality 41/100
!Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +35.1 %/yr)
✓Highly profitable · 94.4% net margin (TTM)
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
✓16.2% dividend yield · Sustainable
✓Wide moat 78/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $4.36 – $11.41 · fair‑value band $41.06 – $89.37 · the $8.89 price screens below the $56.89 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
Company profile
AGNC Investment Corp. provides private capital to housing market in the United States. It invests in residential mortgage pass-through securities and collateralized mortgage obligations for which the principal and interest payments are guaranteed by the United States government-sponsored enterprise or by the United States government agency.
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AGNC Investment Corp. provides private capital to housing market in the United States. It invests in residential mortgage pass-through securities and collateralized mortgage obligations for which the principal and interest payments are guaranteed by the United States government-sponsored enterprise or by the United States government agency. The company qualifies as a real estate investment trust for federal income tax purposes. It generally would not be subject to federal or state corporate income taxes if it distributes at least 90% of its taxable income to its stockholders. The company was formerly known as American Capital Agency Corp. and changed its name to AGNC Investment Corp. in September 2016. AGNC Investment Corp. was incorporated in 2008 and is headquartered in Bethesda, Maryland.
Stock analysis
AGNC Investment Corp (0H6E) currently trades at $8.89, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $56.89, implying the stock looks roughly 84.4% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $160.00 per share, and 22 of the 23 models we run sit above the $8.89 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $17.38, and 1 of the 23 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: $41.06 (bear) to $89.37 (bull), the price of $8.89 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 41/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
AGNC Investment Corp reported revenue of $1.9B in FY2025 versus $2.4B in FY2021, a compound −5.7%/yr. Reported net income was $1.7B in FY2025, compounding +22.2%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $9.1B · EPS (TTM) $−1.86 · Net margin 87.3% · Return on equity 19.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.7% · Operating margin 95.6% · Revenue (TTM) $2.4B · Revenue growth (YoY) +546%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 22% below its 52-week high and at its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −24% fair-value upside, at 540%, 0H6E screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $41.06
Fair Value $56.89
Bull $89.37
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
EPV
$46.36
$53.15
$59.00
74
FCF DCF
$41.03
$61.34
$124.69
72
Growth DCF
$38.74
$70.68
$122.13
71
All 23 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF
$41.03
$61.34
$124.69
72
5Y Revenue Exit
$18.13
$24.12
$36.24
68
5Y EBITDA Exit
$85.24
$159.78
$306.38
67
5Y P/E Exit
$54.79
$122.50
$215.49
63
10Y Revenue Exit
$25.04
$39.83
$45.80
64
10Y EBITDA Exit
$73.13
$181.03
$376.28
59
10Y P/E Exit
$51.41
$116.95
$226.29
56
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd
$23.77
$165.74
$232.59
59
Lynch FV
$85.63
$122.32
$159.02
57
PEG = 1.0
$85.63
$122.32
$159.02
54
EPV
$46.36
$53.15
$59.00
74
Multiples
P/E Multiple
$55.05
$73.39
$91.74
63
P/S Multiple
$6.00
$8.00
$10.00
58
P/B Multiple
$44.56
$59.41
$74.27
55
EV/EBIT
$123.94
$164.12
$204.31
66
EV/EBITDA
$99.67
$131.77
$163.86
67
EV/Revenue
$8.42
$10.58
$12.75
54
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
$12.97
$17.38
$25.94
54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF
$38.74
$70.68
$122.13
71
Rev-Margin DCF
$19.38
$26.45
$41.02
68
Economic Profit
Residual Income
$24.57
$30.31
$44.69
71
ROIC Compounder
$61.67
$95.45
$115.21
68
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E
$112.00
$160.00
$208.00
64
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
41/100
Of which business quality 40 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 38
Profitability
37
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
47
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
75
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
30
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
39
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
63
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
34
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
17
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
0
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
81/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+26.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+35.1%
Revenue growth 12 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.6%
’12
’13
’15
’17
’18
’19
’21
’22
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.
+23.9%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+23.9%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.3.9% vs 3.0%, steady
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.163% → 236%
2025 sits 142% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+2.3%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+16.4%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −0.1% a year for the price and +13.7% for the forecasts.
Forecast 2026 (sales)−20.4%
Forecast 2027 (sales)+34.1%
Projected 2028 (sales)+30.1%
Projected 2029 (sales)+26.1%
Projected 2030 (sales)+22.1%
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Context: sector, industry, market
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Undervalued stocks: UK Stocks
- Valuation of the UK market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Weapons
Defense
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| Northrop Grumman Corporation NOC | $504.61 | $382.98 | −24% |
| TransDigm Group TDG | $1,116 | $1,228 | +10% |
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Frequently asked questions
Is AGNC Investment Corp (0H6E) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $56.89 versus a price of $8.89, about +540% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 0H6E?
Our model-based fair value for AGNC Investment Corp is $56.89 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $8.89.
What is the quality score of 0H6E?
AGNC Investment Corp has a Quality Score of 41/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for AGNC Investment Corp (0H6E)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $56.89 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 23 valuation models. Cautious scenario $41.06, optimistic scenario $89.37. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the AGNC Investment Corp stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $56.89, about +540% upside versus a price of $8.89 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $41.06, optimistic scenario $89.37. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of AGNC Investment Corp (0H6E)?
AGNC Investment Corp reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $2.4B (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into AGNC Investment Corp (0H6E)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, AGNC Investment Corp would have to grow free cash flow by +2.3 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.1 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +41.2 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 0H6E use?
Our models discount AGNC Investment Corp at 11.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (unknown), damped by beta 1.30, country premium for United Kingdom. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For AGNC Investment Corp that is +2.3 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.1 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has AGNC Investment Corp (0H6E) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at AGNC Investment Corp grew +41.2 % a year. The price currently implies +2.3 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of AGNC Investment Corp (0H6E) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into AGNC Investment Corp (+2.3 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of AGNC Investment Corp (0H6E)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 7.18 %: that much free cash flow AGNC Investment Corp produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.1 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of AGNC Investment Corp (0H6E)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For AGNC Investment Corp it is $56.89 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $8.89. It is the blended result of 23 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is AGNC Investment Corp stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, 0H6E trades below its calculated fair value: price $8.89, fair value $56.89, a gap of about +540% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 0H6E?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($8.89); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($56.89). For AGNC Investment Corp the two are $48.00 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is AGNC Investment Corp worth?
The market values AGNC Investment Corp at about $9.1B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $8.89; our models calculate a fair value of $56.89 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 0H6E?
Our models span a range for AGNC Investment Corp: cautious scenario $41.06, base $56.89, optimistic $89.37 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $8.89). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How far is 0H6E from its 52-week high?
AGNC Investment Corp trades at $8.89, about 22% below its 52-week high of $11.41 and at the low of $8.89 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $56.89 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to AGNC Investment Corp?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value General Electric Company, RTX Corporation, Airbus SE, Lockheed Martin Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is AGNC Investment Corp stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $8.89, calculated fair value $56.89 (+540%), Quality Score 41/100, from 23 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 0H6E calculated?
We run AGNC Investment Corp through 23 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $56.89, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. AGNC Investment Corp currently trades 84 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of AGNC Investment Corp (0H6E)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $8.89. Our model-based fair value is $56.89, about +540% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with AGNC Investment Corp right now?
The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (41/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain. The price is below even our cautious bear case ($41.06). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range ($41.06 to $89.37) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of AGNC Investment Corp
How large is the market capitalisation of AGNC Investment Corp (0H6E)?
The market capitalisation of AGNC Investment Corp is $9.1B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What are the earnings per share of AGNC Investment Corp (0H6E)?
Earnings per share at AGNC Investment Corp are $−1.86. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of AGNC Investment Corp (0H6E)?
The net margin of AGNC Investment Corp is 87.3% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of AGNC Investment Corp (0H6E)?
The return on equity (ROE) of AGNC Investment Corp is 19.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of AGNC Investment Corp (0H6E)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of AGNC Investment Corp is 1.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of AGNC Investment Corp (0H6E)?
The operating margin of AGNC Investment Corp is 95.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at AGNC Investment Corp (0H6E)?
Revenue at AGNC Investment Corp is growing +546% versus a year earlier (3y avg −16.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at AGNC Investment Corp (0H6E)?
Earnings per share at AGNC Investment Corp are growing +772% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does AGNC Investment Corp (0H6E) carry?
The net debt of AGNC Investment Corp is $100B (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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