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Axon Enterprise, Inc (0HKE) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Axon Enterprise, Inc $64.93, price $414, upside -84.3%, quality 38 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? No
- Good quality? No
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Broad data
Sep 24, 2026
Axon Enterprise, Inc
0HKE · LSEWeakest SetupStrongly overvalued and low quality.
!Fair value $64.93 · Strongly overvalued (−84.3%)
!Quality 38/100
!Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +32.5 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 6.9% net margin (TTM)
✓generates free cash flow
!Narrow moat 37/100
What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $84.27 – $867.50 · fair‑value band $44.78 – $75.18 · the $414.24 price screens above the $64.93 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
Company profile
Axon Enterprise, Inc. provides public safety technology solutions in the United States and internationally. The company operates in two segments, Software and Services, and Connected Devices.
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Axon Enterprise, Inc. provides public safety technology solutions in the United States and internationally. The company operates in two segments, Software and Services, and Connected Devices. The Software and Services segment develops, manufactures, and sells cloud-based software-as-a-service solutions to capture, store, manage, share, and analyze video and other digital evidence. This segment also offers Axon Evidence, Draft One, Axon Records, Axon Standards, Axon Fusus, Axon Assistant, and others. The Connected Devices segment engages in the development, manufacture, and sale of integrated hardware solutions, such as conducted energy devices under the TASER brand, body cameras, fixed and in-car cameras, drone and counter-drone technologies, accessories, extended warranties, and related hardware products, as well as virtual reality training hardware. The company serves first responders across international, federal, state, and local governments, international governmental entities, commercial enterprises, and consumers through direct sales, distribution partners, and third-party resellers. The company was formerly known as TASER International, Inc. and changed its name to Axon Enterprise, Inc. in April 2017. Axon Enterprise, Inc. was incorporated in 1993 and is headquartered in Scottsdale, Arizona.
Stock analysis
Axon Enterprise, Inc (0HKE) currently trades at $414.24, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $64.93, 84.3% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $73.43 per share, and 0 of the 21 models we run sit above the $414.24 price.
Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at $36.26, and 21 of the 21 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $44.78 (bear) to $75.18 (bull), the price of $414.24 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 38/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Axon Enterprise, Inc reported revenue of $2.8B in FY2025 versus $863M in FY2021, a compound +33.9%/yr. Reported net income was $125M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $34.1B · P/E ratio 8.1 · P/S ratio 0.36 · EPS (TTM) $0.6270 · Net margin 4.5% · Return on equity 6.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) −0.3% · Operating margin 3.8%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 45% below its 52-week high and 20% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −24% fair-value upside, at −84%, 0HKE screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $44.78
Fair Value $64.93
Bull $75.18
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.4741 per share) are deliberately not added.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF
$61.24
$83.20
$151.66
76
5Y EBITDA Exit
$34.78
$39.50
$48.51
74
Growth DCF
$58.76
$89.25
$148.90
74
All 21 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF
$61.24
$83.20
$151.66
76
Owner Earnings
$57.64
$102.76
$193.98
70
5Y Revenue Exit
$41.43
$52.94
$76.72
70
5Y EBITDA Exit
$34.78
$39.50
$48.51
74
5Y P/E Exit
$56.98
$100.15
$158.67
66
10Y Revenue Exit
$47.21
$70.33
$82.33
66
10Y EBITDA Exit
$42.97
$56.34
$75.14
67
10Y P/E Exit
$58.82
$103.06
$175.04
59
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd
$14.50
$101.14
$141.93
63
Lynch FV
$41.00
$58.57
$76.13
61
PEG = 1.0
$41.00
$58.57
$76.13
57
Multiples
P/E Multiple
$33.59
$44.79
$55.98
63
P/S Multiple
$27.19
$36.26
$45.32
58
P/B Multiple
$27.19
$36.26
$45.32
55
EV/EBITDA
$24.07
$25.24
$26.41
64
EV/Revenue
$32.24
$37.25
$42.26
52
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
$27.74
$37.17
$55.48
51
Growth DCF
Growth DCF
$58.76
$89.25
$148.90
74
Rev-Margin DCF
$41.99
$57.66
$87.84
70
Economic Profit
Residual Income
$40.51
$39.74
$40.90
71
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E
$51.40
$73.43
$95.47
67
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
38/100
Of which business quality 41 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 17
Profitability
29
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
33
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
36
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
74
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
28
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
16
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
23
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
9
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
35
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
85/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+33.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+32.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+32.5%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +30.2% a year
Revenue growth 25 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+30.7%
’14
’15
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 3 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 3 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−11.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−11.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−2% → −2%
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
more than +80 %
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+25.5%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +22.6% a year for the forecasts.
Forecast 2026 (sales)+31.5%
Forecast 2027 (sales)+29.3%
Projected 2028 (sales)+25.9%
Projected 2029 (sales)+22.4%
Projected 2030 (sales)+19.0%
0HKE screens overvalued: fair value 84% below the price. Compare with General Electric Company →
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Context: sector, industry, market
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Undervalued stocks: UK Stocks
- Valuation of the UK market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Weapons
Defense
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Frequently asked questions
Is Axon Enterprise, Inc (0HKE) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $64.93 versus a price of $414.24, about −84% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 0HKE?
Our model-based fair value for Axon Enterprise, Inc is $64.93 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $414.24.
What is the quality score of 0HKE?
Axon Enterprise, Inc has a Quality Score of 38/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Axon Enterprise, Inc (0HKE)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $64.93 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 21 valuation models. Cautious scenario $44.78, optimistic scenario $75.18. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Axon Enterprise, Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $64.93, about −84% upside versus a price of $414.24 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $44.78, optimistic scenario $75.18. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Axon Enterprise, Inc (0HKE)?
Axon Enterprise, Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $3.0B (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Axon Enterprise, Inc (0HKE)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Axon Enterprise, Inc would have to grow free cash flow by more than 80 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +32.5 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 0HKE use?
Our models discount Axon Enterprise, Inc at 11.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (unknown), damped by beta 1.38, country premium for United Kingdom. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Axon Enterprise, Inc that is more than 80 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Axon Enterprise, Inc (0HKE) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Axon Enterprise, Inc grew +32.5 % a year. The price currently implies more than 80 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Axon Enterprise, Inc (0HKE) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Axon Enterprise, Inc (more than 80 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Axon Enterprise, Inc (0HKE)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 0.22 %: that much free cash flow Axon Enterprise, Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Axon Enterprise, Inc (0HKE)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Axon Enterprise, Inc it is $64.93 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $414.24. It is the blended result of 21 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Axon Enterprise, Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, 0HKE trades above its calculated fair value: price $414.24, fair value $64.93, a gap of about −84% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 0HKE?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($414.24); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($64.93). For Axon Enterprise, Inc the two are $349.31 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Axon Enterprise, Inc worth?
The market values Axon Enterprise, Inc at about $34.1B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $414.24; our models calculate a fair value of $64.93 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 0HKE?
Our models span a range for Axon Enterprise, Inc: cautious scenario $44.78, base $64.93, optimistic $75.18 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $414.24). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How far is 0HKE from its 52-week high?
Axon Enterprise, Inc trades at $414.24, about 45% below its 52-week high of $758.21 and 20% above the low of $344.15 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $64.93 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Axon Enterprise, Inc?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value General Electric Company, RTX Corporation, Airbus SE, Lockheed Martin Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Axon Enterprise, Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $414.24, calculated fair value $64.93 (−84%), Quality Score 38/100, from 21 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 0HKE calculated?
We run Axon Enterprise, Inc through 21 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $64.93, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Axon Enterprise, Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Axon Enterprise, Inc (0HKE)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $414.24. Our model-based fair value is $64.93, about −84% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Axon Enterprise, Inc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($75.18). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (38/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
Where does the earnings growth of Axon Enterprise, Inc (0HKE) come from?
Earnings per share at Axon Enterprise, Inc grew +31.4 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +23.7 %, EBIT margin −11.2 %, tax rate +7.0 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +11.7 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Axon Enterprise, Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Axon Enterprise, Inc (0HKE)?
The market capitalisation of Axon Enterprise, Inc is $34.1B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/E ratio of Axon Enterprise, Inc (0HKE)?
The price-to-earnings ratio of Axon Enterprise, Inc is 8.1 (as of Jul 24, 2026). Price to earnings: how many years of current profit you pay for the stock. A P/E of 10 means ten years of profit.
What is the P/S ratio of Axon Enterprise, Inc (0HKE)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Axon Enterprise, Inc is 0.36 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Axon Enterprise, Inc (0HKE)?
Earnings per share at Axon Enterprise, Inc are $0.6270 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 8.1). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Axon Enterprise, Inc (0HKE)?
The net margin of Axon Enterprise, Inc is 4.5% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Axon Enterprise, Inc (0HKE)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Axon Enterprise, Inc is 6.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Axon Enterprise, Inc (0HKE)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Axon Enterprise, Inc is −0.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Axon Enterprise, Inc (0HKE)?
The operating margin of Axon Enterprise, Inc is 3.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Axon Enterprise, Inc (0HKE)?
Revenue at Axon Enterprise, Inc is growing +33.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg +32.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Axon Enterprise, Inc (0HKE)?
Earnings per share at Axon Enterprise, Inc are growing +89.8% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Axon Enterprise, Inc (0HKE) carry?
The net debt of Axon Enterprise, Inc is $807M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 10.8 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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