VGP N.V. (0HM0) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of VGP N.V. €121, price €65.40, upside +85.4%, quality 52 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €57.15 – €220.66 · fair‑value band €112.07 – €138.40 · the €65.40 price screens below the €121.22 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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VGP NV, together with its subsidiaries, develops, owns, and manages logistics and semi-industrial real estate, and ancillary offices. The company operates through three segments: Investment, Property Development, and Renewable Energy.
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VGP NV, together with its subsidiaries, develops, owns, and manages logistics and semi-industrial real estate, and ancillary offices. The company operates through three segments: Investment, Property Development, and Renewable Energy. It leases its properties to tenants in the logistic sector, including storing, assembling, reconditioning, and final treatment of goods. The company also provides property management services; asset management services related to corporate administration, financing, business planning, reporting, budgeting, management of tax and legal affairs, controlling, etc.; and project management and leasing services. In addition, the company offers facility management and leasing services; facility management services, such as maintenance, waste management, and greenery maintenance services; and other services comprising green energy generated through roof-fixed solar panels, smart energy management, and green electric charging facilities and infrastructure. It operates in Germany, Austria, the Netherlands, Spain, Portugal, Italy, the Czech Republic, the Slovak Republic, Hungary, Romania, Latvia, Croatia, France, Denmark, Serbia, and The United Kingdom. VGP NV was founded in 1998 and is headquartered in Antwerp, Belgium.
Stock analysis
VGP N.V. (0HM0) currently trades at €65.40, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €121.22, implying the stock looks roughly 46.0% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of €485.25 per share, and 11 of the 23 models we run sit above the €65.40 price.
Bear case: the Growth DCF group reads lowest at €18.52, and 12 of the 23 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: €112.07 (bear) to €138.40 (bull), the price of €65.40 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 52/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
VGP N.V. reported revenue of €175M in FY2025 versus €46.4M in FY2021, a compound +39.3%/yr. Reported net income was €290M in FY2025, compounding −18.2%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap €1.8B · P/E ratio 0.0 · P/S ratio 0.04 · EPS (TTM) €31.41 · Dividend yield 5.2% · Net margin 151% · Return on equity 11.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.0%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 46 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 39% below its 52-week high and at its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −24% fair-value upside, at 85%, 0HM0 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear €112.07Fair Value €121.22Bull €138.40
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (€21.18 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+39.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+25.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+40.9%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +22.2% a year
Revenue growth 19 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+24.8%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.
−5.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−10.7%
Dividend (yield on the price)5.2%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−9.4% vs 9.3%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−33% → 44%
2025 sits 55% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
more than +80 %
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Aerospace & Defense · 227 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/10 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score52 · Below median
Fair Value upside+85.4% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)11.6% · Above median
Return on assets1.5% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)151.3% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)56.0% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth46.5% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)5.2% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.29× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Aerospace & Defense median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "VGP N.V. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/0HM0
Frequently asked questions
Is VGP N.V. (0HM0) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €121.22 versus a price of €65.40, about +85% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 0HM0?
Our model-based fair value for VGP N.V. is €121.22 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €65.40.
What is the quality score of 0HM0?
VGP N.V. has a Quality Score of 52/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for VGP N.V. (0HM0)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €121.22 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 23 valuation models. Cautious scenario €112.07, optimistic scenario €138.40. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the VGP N.V. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €121.22, about +85% upside versus a price of €65.40 (undervalued). Cautious scenario €112.07, optimistic scenario €138.40. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of VGP N.V. (0HM0)?
VGP N.V. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €192M (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does VGP N.V. pay a dividend?
VGP N.V. currently shows a dividend yield of about 5.20% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into VGP N.V. (0HM0)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, VGP N.V. would have to grow free cash flow by more than 80 % per year for five years (discount rate 13.1 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +40.9 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 0HM0 use?
Our models discount VGP N.V. at 13.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 1.43, country premium for United Kingdom. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For VGP N.V. that is more than 80 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (13.1 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has VGP N.V. (0HM0) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at VGP N.V. grew +40.9 % a year. The price currently implies more than 80 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of VGP N.V. (0HM0) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.0 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into VGP N.V. (more than 80 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of VGP N.V. (0HM0)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 0.13 %: that much free cash flow VGP N.V. produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (13.1 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of VGP N.V. (0HM0)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For VGP N.V. it is €121.22 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of €65.40. It is the blended result of 23 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is VGP N.V. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, 0HM0 trades below its calculated fair value: price €65.40, fair value €121.22, a gap of about +85% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 0HM0?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€65.40); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€121.22). For VGP N.V. the two are €55.82 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is VGP N.V. worth?
The market values VGP N.V. at about €1.8B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is €65.40; our models calculate a fair value of €121.22 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 0HM0?
Our models span a range for VGP N.V.: cautious scenario €112.07, base €121.22, optimistic €138.40 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price €65.40). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 0HM0?
VGP N.V. trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 0.0 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of €121.22 is built from several models across several years.
How solid is the balance sheet of VGP N.V. (0HM0)?
Balance-sheet figures for VGP N.V. (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 11.6%, debt of 0.29 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 52/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 0HM0 from its 52-week high?
VGP N.V. trades at €65.40, about 39% below its 52-week high of €107.93 and at the low of €65.40 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €121.22 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to VGP N.V.?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value General Electric Company, RTX Corporation, Airbus SE, Lockheed Martin Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is VGP N.V. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price €65.40, calculated fair value €121.22 (+85%), Quality Score 52/100, from 23 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 0HM0 calculated?
We run VGP N.V. through 23 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of €121.22, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. VGP N.V. currently trades 46 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of VGP N.V. (0HM0)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was €65.40. Our model-based fair value is €121.22, about +85% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with VGP N.V. right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (€112.07). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. Solid quality (52/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Where does the earnings growth of VGP N.V. (0HM0) come from?
Earnings per share at VGP N.V. grew +8.5 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +16.4 %, EBIT margin +3.8 %, tax rate +0.6 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −10.8 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of VGP N.V.
How large is the market capitalisation of VGP N.V. (0HM0)?
The market capitalisation of VGP N.V. is €1.8B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of VGP N.V. (0HM0)?
The price-to-sales ratio of VGP N.V. is 0.04 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of VGP N.V. (0HM0)?
Earnings per share at VGP N.V. are €31.41 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 0.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of VGP N.V. (0HM0)?
The dividend yield of VGP N.V. is 5.2% (payout 10.8%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of VGP N.V. (0HM0)?
The net margin of VGP N.V. is 151% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of VGP N.V. (0HM0)?
The return on equity (ROE) of VGP N.V. is 11.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of VGP N.V. (0HM0)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of VGP N.V. is 1.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of VGP N.V. (0HM0)?
The operating margin of VGP N.V. is 56.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at VGP N.V. (0HM0)?
Revenue at VGP N.V. is growing +46.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg +25.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at VGP N.V. (0HM0)?
Earnings per share at VGP N.V. are growing −24.4% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does VGP N.V. (0HM0) carry?
The net debt of VGP N.V. is €1.8B (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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