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Semapa - Sociedade de Investimento e Gestão, SGPS, S.A (0IE9) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Semapa - Sociedade de Investimento e Gestão, SGPS, S.A €38.09, price €19.42, upside +96.1%, quality 57 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? Yes
  2. Good quality? Yes
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Basic Materials · GB · Home Portugal · ISIN PTSEM0AM0004

SS Broad data Sep 24, 2026

Semapa - Sociedade de Investimento e Gestão, SGPS, S.A

0IE9 · LSE

Clearly undervaluedStrong Fair Value upside, but quality is only moderate.

✓Fair value €38.09 · Strongly undervalued (+96.1%)
!Quality 57/100
!Weak Growth (revenue 3y −4.8 %/yr)
✓Highly profitable · 30.9% net margin (TTM)
!Moderate debt
·3.2% dividend yield · Safety not assessed
!Moderate moat 46/100

What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

€23.76 €7.65 Fair Value €38.09 Apr 2021 Oct 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range €7.65 – €23.76 · fair‑value band €28.56 – €47.61 · the €19.42 price screens below the €38.09 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

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Company profile

Semapa - Sociedade de Investimento e Gestão, SGPS, S.A., through its subsidiaries, engages in the production and sale of pulp, printing and writing papers, and tissues in Portugal, the rest of Europe, the United States, Africa, Asia, and Oceania. It operates through Pulp and Paper, Cement, and Other Businesses segments.

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Semapa - Sociedade de Investimento e Gestão, SGPS, S.A., through its subsidiaries, engages in the production and sale of pulp, printing and writing papers, and tissues in Portugal, the rest of Europe, the United States, Africa, Asia, and Oceania. It operates through Pulp and Paper, Cement, and Other Businesses segments. The company produces and sells writing and printing thin paper, tissue paper, and moulded fibre packaging; researches, develops, produces, and sells forestry and agricultural products; and produces and sells bleached eucalyptus kraft pulp (BEKP), cork, and pine wood products, as well as electric and thermal energy. It is also involved in the production and sale of cement, ready-mixed concrete, aggregates, mortars, precast concrete, and hydraulic lime. In addition, the company engages in the production of aluminium e-bike frames; and the provision of services related to the recovery of animal by-products and food products containing animal-origin substances to produce fertilizers, animal feed, and biodiesel. The company was incorporated in 1991 and is based in Lisbon, Portugal.

Stock analysis

Semapa - Sociedade de Investimento e Gestão, SGPS, S.A (0IE9) currently trades at €19.42, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €38.09, implying the stock looks roughly 49.0% undervalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of €90.95 per share, and 18 of the 23 models we run sit above the €19.42 price.

Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at €12.96, and 5 of the 23 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.

Scenario range: €28.56 (bear) to €47.61 (bull), the price of €19.42 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 57/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.

Semapa - Sociedade de Investimento e Gestão, SGPS, S.A reported revenue of €1.9B in FY2020 versus €2.1B in FY2016, a compound −2.6%/yr. Reported net income was €107M in FY2020, compounding −1.9%/yr from FY2016.

Key figures

Market cap €952M · P/S ratio 0.47 · Dividend yield 3.2% · Net margin 5.7% · Return on equity 3.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 6.4% · Operating margin 4.6% · Revenue (TTM) €2.0B.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 18% below its 52-week high and 22% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 6% fair-value upside, at 96%, 0IE9 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear €28.56 Fair Value €38.09 Bull €47.61
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF €105.53 €142.26 €203.87 77
Growth DCF €109.44 €144.26 €198.20 76
Residual Income €16.77 €18.51 €21.42 73
All 23 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF €105.53 €142.26 €203.87 77
5Y Revenue Exit €56.70 €74.16 €99.24 70
5Y EBITDA Exit €69.66 €96.58 €132.27 72
5Y P/E Exit €50.97 €64.27 €80.60 69
10Y Revenue Exit €76.85 €90.95 €104.66 65
10Y EBITDA Exit €84.86 €103.61 €122.35 67
10Y P/E Exit €74.49 €85.36 €94.67 62
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd €14.78 €18.06 €20.32 65
EPV €0.8300 €3.05 €4.90 67
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM €18.42 €19.86 €22.00 67
DDM Multi-Stage €18.42 €21.93 €26.46 65
Multiples
P/E Multiple €27.71 €36.94 €46.18 63
P/S Multiple €27.71 €36.94 €46.18 58
P/B Multiple €27.71 €36.94 €46.18 55
EV/EBIT €27.24 €41.45 €55.67 65
EV/EBITDA €51.15 €73.33 €95.52 67
EV/Revenue €21.55 €37.39 €53.23 52
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) €9.67 €12.96 €19.35 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF €109.44 €144.26 €198.20 76
Rev-Margin DCF €56.70 €77.34 €104.25 70
Economic Profit
Residual Income €16.77 €18.51 €21.42 73
ROIC Compounder €0.8300 €3.05 €4.90 64
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E €19.74 €28.20 €36.66 65

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 57/100

Of which business quality 55 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 52

Profitability 35
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 32
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 100
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 24
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 93
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 80
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 39
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 43
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 40/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−16.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−4.8%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
11.8% (2016) → 10.7% (2020)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: no share-count history
not computed

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Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

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Semapa - Sociedade de Investimento e Gestão, SGPS, S.A · Fair Value
€38.09 +49%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Semapa - Sociedade de Investimento e Gestão, SGPS, S.A Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/0IE9

Frequently asked questions

Is Semapa - Sociedade de Investimento e Gestão, SGPS, S.A (0IE9) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €38.09 versus a price of €19.42, about +96% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 0IE9?
Our model-based fair value for Semapa - Sociedade de Investimento e Gestão, SGPS, S.A is €38.09 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €19.42.
What is the quality score of 0IE9?
Semapa - Sociedade de Investimento e Gestão, SGPS, S.A has a Quality Score of 57/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Semapa - Sociedade de Investimento e Gestão, SGPS, S.A (0IE9)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €38.09 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 23 valuation models. Cautious scenario €28.56, optimistic scenario €47.61. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Semapa - Sociedade de Investimento e Gestão, SGPS, S.A stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €38.09, about +96% upside versus a price of €19.42 (undervalued). Cautious scenario €28.56, optimistic scenario €47.61. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Semapa - Sociedade de Investimento e Gestão, SGPS, S.A (0IE9)?
Semapa - Sociedade de Investimento e Gestão, SGPS, S.A reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €2.0B (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Semapa - Sociedade de Investimento e Gestão, SGPS, S.A pay a dividend?
Semapa - Sociedade de Investimento e Gestão, SGPS, S.A currently shows a dividend yield of about 3.22% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Semapa - Sociedade de Investimento e Gestão, SGPS, S.A (0IE9)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Semapa - Sociedade de Investimento e Gestão, SGPS, S.A it is €38.09 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of €19.42. It is the blended result of 23 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Semapa - Sociedade de Investimento e Gestão, SGPS, S.A stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, 0IE9 trades below its calculated fair value: price €19.42, fair value €38.09, a gap of about +96% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 0IE9?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€19.42); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€38.09). For Semapa - Sociedade de Investimento e Gestão, SGPS, S.A the two are €18.67 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Semapa - Sociedade de Investimento e Gestão, SGPS, S.A worth?
The market values Semapa - Sociedade de Investimento e Gestão, SGPS, S.A at about €952M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is €19.42; our models calculate a fair value of €38.09 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 0IE9?
Our models span a range for Semapa - Sociedade de Investimento e Gestão, SGPS, S.A: cautious scenario €28.56, base €38.09, optimistic €47.61 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price €19.42). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How far is 0IE9 from its 52-week high?
Semapa - Sociedade de Investimento e Gestão, SGPS, S.A trades at €19.42, about 18% below its 52-week high of €23.76 and 22% above the low of €15.98 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €38.09 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Semapa - Sociedade de Investimento e Gestão, SGPS, S.A?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value UPM-Kymmene Oyj, Shandong Sunpaper Co, Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings) Limited, The Navigator Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Semapa - Sociedade de Investimento e Gestão, SGPS, S.A stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price €19.42, calculated fair value €38.09 (+96%), Quality Score 57/100, from 23 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 0IE9 calculated?
We run Semapa - Sociedade de Investimento e Gestão, SGPS, S.A through 23 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of €38.09, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Semapa - Sociedade de Investimento e Gestão, SGPS, S.A currently trades 49 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Semapa - Sociedade de Investimento e Gestão, SGPS, S.A (0IE9)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was €19.42. Our model-based fair value is €38.09, about +96% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Semapa - Sociedade de Investimento e Gestão, SGPS, S.A right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (€28.56). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. Solid quality (57/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.

Key figures of Semapa - Sociedade de Investimento e Gestão, SGPS, S.A

How large is the market capitalisation of Semapa - Sociedade de Investimento e Gestão, SGPS, S.A (0IE9)?
The market capitalisation of Semapa - Sociedade de Investimento e Gestão, SGPS, S.A is €952M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Semapa - Sociedade de Investimento e Gestão, SGPS, S.A (0IE9)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Semapa - Sociedade de Investimento e Gestão, SGPS, S.A is 0.47 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What is the dividend yield of Semapa - Sociedade de Investimento e Gestão, SGPS, S.A (0IE9)?
The dividend yield of Semapa - Sociedade de Investimento e Gestão, SGPS, S.A is 3.2%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Semapa - Sociedade de Investimento e Gestão, SGPS, S.A (0IE9)?
The net margin of Semapa - Sociedade de Investimento e Gestão, SGPS, S.A is 5.7% (fiscal year 2020). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Semapa - Sociedade de Investimento e Gestão, SGPS, S.A (0IE9)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Semapa - Sociedade de Investimento e Gestão, SGPS, S.A is 3.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Semapa - Sociedade de Investimento e Gestão, SGPS, S.A (0IE9)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Semapa - Sociedade de Investimento e Gestão, SGPS, S.A is 6.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Semapa - Sociedade de Investimento e Gestão, SGPS, S.A (0IE9)?
The operating margin of Semapa - Sociedade de Investimento e Gestão, SGPS, S.A is 4.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Semapa - Sociedade de Investimento e Gestão, SGPS, S.A (0IE9)?
Revenue at Semapa - Sociedade de Investimento e Gestão, SGPS, S.A is growing −14.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg −4.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Semapa - Sociedade de Investimento e Gestão, SGPS, S.A (0IE9)?
Earnings per share at Semapa - Sociedade de Investimento e Gestão, SGPS, S.A are growing +12.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
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