Österreichische Post AG (0NTM) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Österreichische Post AG €27.13, price €30.70, upside -11.6%, quality 51 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €20.98 – €35.56 · fair‑value band €15.42 – €33.04 · the €30.70 price screens above the €27.13 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
Österreichische Post AG, together with its subsidiaries, provides postal and parcel services in Austria, Germany, Southeast and Eastern Europe, Turkey, and internationally. The company operates through three divisions: Mail, Parcel & Logistics, and Retail & Bank.
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Österreichische Post AG, together with its subsidiaries, provides postal and parcel services in Austria, Germany, Southeast and Eastern Europe, Turkey, and internationally. The company operates through three divisions: Mail, Parcel & Logistics, and Retail & Bank. The Mail division engages in the distribution, collection, sorting, and delivery of letters and document shipments, addressed and unaddressed direct mail, and newspapers and magazines, as well as online services, such as e-letter and cross-media solutions. This division also provides physical and digital services in customer communications and document processing. The Parcel & Logistics division offers solutions for parcel products, express delivery, and food delivery; stationary logistics for pharmaceutical products; and value-added services, including warehousing, order picking, returns management, and web shop logistics and infrastructure, as well as cash and valuable goods transportation services. The Retail & Bank division offers postal and telecommunication, and merchandise, as well as financial services offered by a retail ban and payment transaction services; and bank accounts, transfer services, consumer loans, investment and saving options, housing finance, and insurance; and self-service solutions, such as pick-up and drop-off stations at various locations. The company was incorporated in 1999 and is headquartered in Vienna, Austria. Österreichische Post AG is a subsidiary of Österreichische Beteiligungs AG.
Stock analysis
Österreichische Post AG (0NTM) currently trades at €30.70, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €27.13, 11.6% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of €36.46 per share, and 6 of the 15 models we run sit above the €30.70 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at €6.17, and 9 of the 15 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: €15.42 (bear) to €33.04 (bull), the price of €30.70 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 51/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Österreichische Post AG reported revenue of €2.2B in FY2020 versus €2.0B in FY2016, a compound +1.9%/yr. Reported net income was €118M in FY2020, compounding −6.2%/yr from FY2016.
Key figures
Market cap €1.9B · P/E ratio 0.1 · EPS (TTM) €1.99 · Dividend yield 6.0% · Net margin 5.4% · Return on equity 14.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 10.8% · Operating margin 4.2%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 11% below its 52-week high and 10% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −34% fair-value upside, at −12%, 0NTM screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear €15.42Fair Value €27.13Bull €33.04
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.32/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+8.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.1%
’16
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
9.9% (2016) → 7.3% (2020)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: no share-count history
Compare Österreichische Post AG with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Integrated Freight & Logistics · 201 stocks
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Österreichische Post AG Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/0NTM
Frequently asked questions
Is Österreichische Post AG (0NTM) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €27.13 versus a price of €30.70, about −12% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 0NTM?
Our model-based fair value for Österreichische Post AG is €27.13 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €30.70.
What is the quality score of 0NTM?
Österreichische Post AG has a Quality Score of 51/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Österreichische Post AG (0NTM)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €27.13 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 15 valuation models. Cautious scenario €15.42, optimistic scenario €33.04. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Österreichische Post AG stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €27.13, about −12% upside versus a price of €30.70 (overvalued). Cautious scenario €15.42, optimistic scenario €33.04. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Österreichische Post AG (0NTM)?
Österreichische Post AG reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €3.1B (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Österreichische Post AG pay a dividend?
Österreichische Post AG currently shows a dividend yield of about 5.96% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Österreichische Post AG (0NTM)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Österreichische Post AG it is €27.13 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of €30.70. It is the blended result of 15 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Österreichische Post AG stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, 0NTM trades above its calculated fair value: price €30.70, fair value €27.13, a gap of about −12% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 0NTM?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€30.70); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€27.13). For Österreichische Post AG the two are €3.57 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Österreichische Post AG worth?
The market values Österreichische Post AG at about €1.9B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is €30.70; our models calculate a fair value of €27.13 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 0NTM?
Our models span a range for Österreichische Post AG: cautious scenario €15.42, base €27.13, optimistic €33.04 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price €30.70). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 0NTM?
Österreichische Post AG trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 0.1 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of €27.13 is built from several models across several years.
How solid is the balance sheet of Österreichische Post AG (0NTM)?
Balance-sheet figures for Österreichische Post AG (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 14.8%. They feed the Quality Score of 51/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 0NTM from its 52-week high?
Österreichische Post AG trades at €30.70, about 11% below its 52-week high of €34.45 and 10% above the low of €27.81 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €27.13 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Österreichische Post AG?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value United Parcel Service, Inc, Deutsche Post AG, FedEx Corporation, DSV A/S, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Österreichische Post AG stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price €30.70, calculated fair value €27.13 (−12%), Quality Score 51/100, from 15 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 0NTM calculated?
We run Österreichische Post AG through 15 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of €27.13, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Österreichische Post AG itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Österreichische Post AG (0NTM)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was €30.70. Our model-based fair value is €27.13, about −12% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Österreichische Post AG right now?
A fairly wide model range (€15.42 to €33.04) leaves room in how you read the outcome. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.
Key figures of Österreichische Post AG
How large is the market capitalisation of Österreichische Post AG (0NTM)?
The market capitalisation of Österreichische Post AG is €1.9B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What are the earnings per share of Österreichische Post AG (0NTM)?
Earnings per share at Österreichische Post AG are €1.99 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 0.1). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Österreichische Post AG (0NTM)?
The dividend yield of Österreichische Post AG is 6.0% (payout 91.8%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Österreichische Post AG (0NTM)?
The net margin of Österreichische Post AG is 5.4% (fiscal year 2020). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Österreichische Post AG (0NTM)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Österreichische Post AG is 14.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Österreichische Post AG (0NTM)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Österreichische Post AG is 10.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Österreichische Post AG (0NTM)?
The operating margin of Österreichische Post AG is 4.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Österreichische Post AG (0NTM)?
Revenue at Österreichische Post AG is growing +0.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg +4.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Österreichische Post AG (0NTM)?
Earnings per share at Österreichische Post AG are growing −60.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
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