bpost NV (0QF5) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of bpost NV €4.31, price €1.12, upside +283.5%, quality 52 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €1.12 – €9.17 · fair‑value band €3.28 – €5.34 · the €1.12 price screens below the €4.31 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
bpost NV/SA, together with its subsidiaries, provides parcel logistics solutions in Belgium, France, the Netherlands, the United States, Europe, and internationally. It operates through three segments: BU Bpost, BU Paxon, and BU Landmark Global.
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bpost NV/SA, together with its subsidiaries, provides parcel logistics solutions in Belgium, France, the Netherlands, the United States, Europe, and internationally. It operates through three segments: BU Bpost, BU Paxon, and BU Landmark Global. The company offers postal, parcel, and logistics services, including in-shop delivery, in-home installations, two-man handling, and return/repair/recycle services, as well as cross-border and transportation management services. It also provides e-commerce logistics; fulfillment services; back-office; and proximity and convenience services, as well as sells various banking and financial, postal, and retail products. In addition, the company engages in the distribution of magazines, comics, novels, and puzzle books; automation and the deployment of robots for webshops; customized last-mile and outsourced supply-chain solutions; and repair of smartphones, drones, and coffee machines, as well as delivering and installation of white goods, smart home devices, and furniture. Further, it is involved in express deliveries; freight breakdown, sorting and processing of freight, import and export customs activities, and freight forwarding; freight distribution management systems and warehousing; storage, logistics, and distribution of refrigerated and frozen products; and administrative and financial document services. The company was formerly known as De Post-La Poste and changed its name to bpost NV/SA in June 2010. bpost NV/SA was founded in 1830 and is headquartered in Brussels, Belgium.
Stock analysis
bpost NV (0QF5) currently trades at €1.12, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €4.31, implying the stock looks roughly 73.9% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of €5.92 per share, and 13 of the 15 models we run sit above the €1.12 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at €1.11, and 2 of the 15 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: €3.28 (bear) to €5.34 (bull), the price of €1.12 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 52/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
bpost NV reported revenue of €4.1B in FY2020 versus €2.4B in FY2016, a compound +14.4%/yr. Reported net income was −€19.3M in FY2020.
Key figures
Market cap €1.3B · P/S ratio 0.29 · Dividend yield 7.7% · Net margin −0.5% · Return on equity −4.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 12.3% · Operating margin 2.3% · Revenue (TTM) €4.4B.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 52% below its 52-week high and at its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −34% fair-value upside, at 283%, 0QF5 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear €3.28Fair Value €4.31Bull €5.34
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.53/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+8.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.5%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
20.7% (2016) → 4.9% (2020)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: no share-count history
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Integrated Freight & Logistics · 201 stocks
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "bpost NV Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/0QF5
Frequently asked questions
Is bpost NV (0QF5) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €4.31 versus a price of €1.12, about +283% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 0QF5?
Our model-based fair value for bpost NV is €4.31 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €1.12.
What is the quality score of 0QF5?
bpost NV has a Quality Score of 52/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for bpost NV (0QF5)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €4.31 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 15 valuation models. Cautious scenario €3.28, optimistic scenario €5.34. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the bpost NV stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €4.31, about +283% upside versus a price of €1.12 (undervalued). Cautious scenario €3.28, optimistic scenario €5.34. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of bpost NV (0QF5)?
bpost NV reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €4.4B (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does bpost NV pay a dividend?
bpost NV currently shows a dividend yield of about 7.72% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of bpost NV (0QF5)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For bpost NV it is €4.31 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of €1.12. It is the blended result of 15 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is bpost NV stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, 0QF5 trades below its calculated fair value: price €1.12, fair value €4.31, a gap of about +283% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 0QF5?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€1.12); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€4.31). For bpost NV the two are €3.19 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is bpost NV worth?
The market values bpost NV at about €1.3B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is €1.12; our models calculate a fair value of €4.31 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 0QF5?
Our models span a range for bpost NV: cautious scenario €3.28, base €4.31, optimistic €5.34 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price €1.12). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of bpost NV (0QF5)?
Balance-sheet figures for bpost NV (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity −4.4%, debt of 1.38 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 52/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 0QF5 from its 52-week high?
bpost NV trades at €1.12, about 52% below its 52-week high of €2.35 and at the low of €1.12 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €4.31 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to bpost NV?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value United Parcel Service, Inc, Deutsche Post AG, FedEx Corporation, DSV A/S, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is bpost NV stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price €1.12, calculated fair value €4.31 (+283%), Quality Score 52/100, from 15 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 0QF5 calculated?
We run bpost NV through 15 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of €4.31, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. bpost NV currently trades 74 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of bpost NV (0QF5)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was €1.12. Our model-based fair value is €4.31, about +283% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with bpost NV right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (€3.28). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid quality (52/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Key figures of bpost NV
How large is the market capitalisation of bpost NV (0QF5)?
The market capitalisation of bpost NV is €1.3B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of bpost NV (0QF5)?
The price-to-sales ratio of bpost NV is 0.29 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What is the dividend yield of bpost NV (0QF5)?
The dividend yield of bpost NV is 7.7%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of bpost NV (0QF5)?
The net margin of bpost NV is −0.5% (fiscal year 2020). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of bpost NV (0QF5)?
The return on equity (ROE) of bpost NV is −4.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of bpost NV (0QF5)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of bpost NV is 12.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of bpost NV (0QF5)?
The operating margin of bpost NV is 2.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at bpost NV (0QF5)?
Revenue at bpost NV is growing −5.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg +11.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at bpost NV (0QF5)?
Earnings per share at bpost NV are growing −96.8% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
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