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CTT - Correios De Portugal, S.A (0QIM) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of CTT - Correios De Portugal, S.A €2.33, price €5.91, upside -60.6%, quality 44 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? No
- Good quality? No
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Thin data
Sep 24, 2026
CTT - Correios De Portugal, S.A
0QIM · LSEWeakest SetupStrongly overvalued and low quality.
!Fair value €2.33 · Strongly overvalued (−60.6%)
!Quality 44/100
!Weak Growth (revenue 3y −0.2 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 3.7% net margin (TTM)
!Moderate debt
✓3.2% dividend yield · Sustainable
!Moderate moat 45/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €2.30 – €7.83 · fair‑value band €1.75 – €2.92 · the €5.91 price screens above the €2.33 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
Company profile
CTT - Correios De Portugal, S.A., together with its subsidiaries, engages in reference postal business in Portugal and internationally. The company operates through three segments: E-Commerce Solutions, Mail and Services, and Banco CTT.
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CTT - Correios De Portugal, S.A., together with its subsidiaries, engages in reference postal business in Portugal and internationally. The company operates through three segments: E-Commerce Solutions, Mail and Services, and Banco CTT. It is involved in consulting, outsource process management, and contact center operations; courier services, urgent mail transport, express mail, and delivery of goods; distribution of advertising mail; payment services; and provision of various banking products and services. The company was founded in 1520 and is headquartered in Lisbon, Portugal.
Stock analysis
CTT - Correios De Portugal, S.A (0QIM) currently trades at €5.91, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €2.33, 60.6% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of €6.91 per share, and 7 of the 23 models we run sit above the €5.91 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at €0.6700, and 16 of the 23 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: €1.75 (bear) to €2.92 (bull), the price of €5.91 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 44/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
CTT - Correios De Portugal, S.A reported revenue of €673M in FY2020 versus €670M in FY2016, a compound +0.1%/yr. Reported net income was €16.7M in FY2020, compounding −28.0%/yr from FY2016.
Key figures
Market cap €480M · P/E ratio 0.1 · EPS (TTM) €0.2360 · Dividend yield 3.2% · Net margin 2.5% · Return on equity 17.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) 3.2% · Operating margin 6.3%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 52 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 20% below its 52-week high and 6% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −34% fair-value upside, at −61%, 0QIM screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear €1.75
Fair Value €2.33
Bull €2.92
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF
€8.23
€10.86
€15.27
77
Growth DCF
€8.51
€11.01
€14.87
76
EPV
€0.8600
€1.04
€1.19
74
All 23 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF
€8.23
€10.86
€15.27
77
5Y Revenue Exit
€4.45
€5.50
€6.99
71
5Y EBITDA Exit
€6.04
€8.25
€11.17
72
5Y P/E Exit
€4.22
€5.09
€6.16
69
10Y Revenue Exit
€6.04
€6.91
€7.75
65
10Y EBITDA Exit
€6.96
€8.47
€9.98
67
10Y P/E Exit
€5.95
€6.68
€7.30
62
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd
€0.7600
€0.9200
€1.04
65
EPV
€0.8600
€1.04
€1.19
74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM
€0.9100
€0.9900
€1.09
67
DDM Multi-Stage
€0.9100
€1.09
€1.31
65
Multiples
P/E Multiple
€1.75
€2.33
€2.92
63
P/S Multiple
€1.42
€1.89
€2.36
58
P/B Multiple
€1.42
€1.89
€2.36
55
EV/EBIT
€2.51
€3.49
€4.47
66
EV/EBITDA
€5.13
€6.98
€8.83
67
EV/Revenue
€1.67
€2.57
€3.46
53
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
€0.5000
€0.6700
€1.00
54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF
€8.51
€11.01
€14.87
76
Rev-Margin DCF
€4.45
€5.72
€7.40
71
Economic Profit
Residual Income
€0.8600
€0.9500
€1.10
73
ROIC Compounder
€0.8600
€1.04
€1.23
69
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E
€1.24
€1.77
€2.30
65
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
44/100
Of which business quality 44 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 41
Profitability
25
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
24
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
94
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
14
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
67
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
69
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
36
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
17
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
40/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−2.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−0.2%
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
13.6% (2016) → 5.1% (2020)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: no share-count history
not computed
0QIM screens overvalued: fair value 61% below the price. Compare with United Parcel Service, Inc →
Compare CTT - Correios De Portugal, S.A with another stock
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Integrated Freight & Logistics · 201 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/10 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation Multiplesvs Integrated Freight & Logistics median · lower = cheaper
Context: sector, industry, market
- Is the Industrials sector expensive or cheap?
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Undervalued stocks: Industrials
- Undervalued stocks: UK Stocks
- Valuation of the UK market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
Similar stocks
10 more Integrated Freight & Logistics stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| United Parcel Service, Inc UPS | $93.44 | $107.34 | +15% |
| Deutsche Post AG DHL | €55.74 | €137.08 | +146% |
| FedEx Corporation FDX | $289.65 | $349.54 | +21% |
| DSV A/S DSV | kr 1,199 | kr 711.95 | −41% |
| Poste Italiane S.p.A PST | €24.49 | €14.24 | −42% |
| Kuehne + Nagel International AG KNIN | CHF 224.50 | CHF 147.92 | −34% |
| Expeditors International of Washington, Inc EXPD | $188.58 | $116.66 | −38% |
| S.F. Holding 002352 | ¥30.54 | ¥109.70 | +259% |
| J.B. Hunt Transport Services, Inc JBHT | $226.07 | $133.80 | −41% |
| C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc CHRW | $148.24 | $87.31 | −41% |
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Frequently asked questions
Is CTT - Correios De Portugal, S.A (0QIM) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €2.33 versus a price of €5.91, about −61% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 0QIM?
Our model-based fair value for CTT - Correios De Portugal, S.A is €2.33 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €5.91.
What is the quality score of 0QIM?
CTT - Correios De Portugal, S.A has a Quality Score of 44/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for CTT - Correios De Portugal, S.A (0QIM)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €2.33 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 23 valuation models. Cautious scenario €1.75, optimistic scenario €2.92. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the CTT - Correios De Portugal, S.A stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €2.33, about −61% upside versus a price of €5.91 (overvalued). Cautious scenario €1.75, optimistic scenario €2.92. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of CTT - Correios De Portugal, S.A (0QIM)?
CTT - Correios De Portugal, S.A reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €1.4B (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does CTT - Correios De Portugal, S.A pay a dividend?
CTT - Correios De Portugal, S.A currently shows a dividend yield of about 3.21% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of CTT - Correios De Portugal, S.A (0QIM)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For CTT - Correios De Portugal, S.A it is €2.33 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of €5.91. It is the blended result of 23 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is CTT - Correios De Portugal, S.A stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, 0QIM trades above its calculated fair value: price €5.91, fair value €2.33, a gap of about −61% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 0QIM?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€5.91); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€2.33). For CTT - Correios De Portugal, S.A the two are €3.58 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is CTT - Correios De Portugal, S.A worth?
The market values CTT - Correios De Portugal, S.A at about €480M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is €5.91; our models calculate a fair value of €2.33 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 0QIM?
Our models span a range for CTT - Correios De Portugal, S.A: cautious scenario €1.75, base €2.33, optimistic €2.92 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price €5.91). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 0QIM?
CTT - Correios De Portugal, S.A trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 0.1 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of €2.33 is built from several models across several years.
How solid is the balance sheet of CTT - Correios De Portugal, S.A (0QIM)?
Balance-sheet figures for CTT - Correios De Portugal, S.A (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 17.0%, debt of 0.80 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 44/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 0QIM from its 52-week high?
CTT - Correios De Portugal, S.A trades at €5.91, about 20% below its 52-week high of €7.43 and 6% above the low of €5.59 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €2.33 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to CTT - Correios De Portugal, S.A?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value United Parcel Service, Inc, Deutsche Post AG, FedEx Corporation, DSV A/S, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is CTT - Correios De Portugal, S.A stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price €5.91, calculated fair value €2.33 (−61%), Quality Score 44/100, from 23 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 0QIM calculated?
We run CTT - Correios De Portugal, S.A through 23 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of €2.33, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. CTT - Correios De Portugal, S.A itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of CTT - Correios De Portugal, S.A (0QIM)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was €5.91. Our model-based fair value is €2.33, about −61% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with CTT - Correios De Portugal, S.A right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (€2.92). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (44/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Key figures of CTT - Correios De Portugal, S.A
How large is the market capitalisation of CTT - Correios De Portugal, S.A (0QIM)?
The market capitalisation of CTT - Correios De Portugal, S.A is €480M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What are the earnings per share of CTT - Correios De Portugal, S.A (0QIM)?
Earnings per share at CTT - Correios De Portugal, S.A are €0.2360 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 0.1). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of CTT - Correios De Portugal, S.A (0QIM)?
The dividend yield of CTT - Correios De Portugal, S.A is 3.2% (payout 80.5%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of CTT - Correios De Portugal, S.A (0QIM)?
The net margin of CTT - Correios De Portugal, S.A is 2.5% (fiscal year 2020). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of CTT - Correios De Portugal, S.A (0QIM)?
The return on equity (ROE) of CTT - Correios De Portugal, S.A is 17.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of CTT - Correios De Portugal, S.A (0QIM)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of CTT - Correios De Portugal, S.A is 3.2% (avg 4y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of CTT - Correios De Portugal, S.A (0QIM)?
The operating margin of CTT - Correios De Portugal, S.A is 6.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at CTT - Correios De Portugal, S.A (0QIM)?
Revenue at CTT - Correios De Portugal, S.A is growing +11.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg −0.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at CTT - Correios De Portugal, S.A (0QIM)?
Earnings per share at CTT - Correios De Portugal, S.A are growing −25.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
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