Evolution Gaming Group AB (0RQ6) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Evolution Gaming Group AB SEK 147, price SEK 847, upside -82.6%, quality 81 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Evolution AB (publ) develops, produces, markets, and licenses live casino and slots solutions to gaming operators in Europe, Asia, North America, Latin America, and internationally.
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Evolution AB (publ) develops, produces, markets, and licenses live casino and slots solutions to gaming operators in Europe, Asia, North America, Latin America, and internationally. It offers casino and live games shows under the Evolution and Ezugi brands; online casino under the NetEnt brand name; and casino games and software comprising jackpot system, a smart spins bonus management application, and tournaments gamification under the Red Tiger brand. It also provides slots titles and game mechanics under the Big Time Gaming brand; online casino platform and games under the Nolimit City brand name; HD spinning gaming wheels under the DigiWheel brand; and B2B social streaming games under the Livespins brand name. The company was formerly known as Evolution Gaming Group AB (publ). Evolution AB (publ) was founded in 2006 and is headquartered in Stockholm, Sweden.
Stock analysis
Evolution Gaming Group AB (0RQ6) currently trades at kr 847.10, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is kr 147.04, 82.6% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of kr 154.53 per share, and 0 of the 24 models we run sit above the kr 847.10 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at kr 15.12, and 24 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: kr 86.58 (bear) to kr 191.16 (bull), the price of kr 847.10 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 81/100 (high quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Evolution Gaming Group AB reported revenue of 561M SEK in FY2020 versus 115M SEK in FY2016, a compound +48.5%/yr. Reported net income was 285M SEK in FY2020, compounding +73.0%/yr from FY2016.
Key figures
Market cap 166B SEK (≈ $16.5B) · P/E ratio 3.1 · P/S ratio 1.56 · EPS (TTM) kr 3.03 · Dividend yield 0.2% · Net margin 50.7% · Return on equity 25.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) 27.6%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 52 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 2% below its 52-week high and 64% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −83%, 0RQ6 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
The price assumes far more growth than our models allow for, so the models scatter widely (kr 3.74 to kr 154.53). Read the Fair Value as a cautious anchor, not a price target; the Growth Forecast section shows what the price assumes.
Bear kr 86.58Fair Value kr 147.04Bull kr 191.16
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.92/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+53.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+46.5%
’16
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
30.2% (2016) → 53.4% (2020)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: no share-count history
Compare Evolution Gaming Group AB with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Gambling · 50 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/9 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score81 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−82.6% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)25.0% · Top 25%
Return on assets12.9% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)51.5% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)57.0% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−1.5% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)0.2% · Bottom 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Gambling median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)3.1× · Cheapest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 53
FUTURE (revenue growth)0· sector 27
PAST (return on equity)100· sector 26
HEALTH (low debt)0· sector 81
DIVIDEND (yield)4· sector 68
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Evolution Gaming Group AB Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/0RQ6
Frequently asked questions
Is Evolution Gaming Group AB (0RQ6) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 3, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of kr 147.04 versus a price of kr 847.10, about −83% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 0RQ6?
Our model-based fair value for Evolution Gaming Group AB is kr 147.04 (as of Oct 3, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: kr 847.10.
What is the quality score of 0RQ6?
Evolution Gaming Group AB has a Quality Score of 81/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Evolution Gaming Group AB (0RQ6)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of kr 147.04 (as of Oct 3, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario kr 86.58, optimistic scenario kr 191.16. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Evolution Gaming Group AB stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at kr 147.04, about −83% upside versus a price of kr 847.10 (overvalued). Cautious scenario kr 86.58, optimistic scenario kr 191.16. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
Does Evolution Gaming Group AB pay a dividend?
Evolution Gaming Group AB currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.18% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 3, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Evolution Gaming Group AB (0RQ6)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Evolution Gaming Group AB it is kr 147.04 per share (as of Oct 3, 2026), against a price of kr 847.10. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Evolution Gaming Group AB stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 3, 2026, 0RQ6 trades above its calculated fair value: price kr 847.10, fair value kr 147.04, a gap of about −83% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 0RQ6?
No. The price is what the market pays today (kr 847.10); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (kr 147.04). For Evolution Gaming Group AB the two are kr 700.06 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Evolution Gaming Group AB worth?
The market values Evolution Gaming Group AB at about 166B SEK (market capitalisation, as of Oct 3, 2026). Per share that is kr 847.10; our models calculate a fair value of kr 147.04 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 0RQ6?
Our models span a range for Evolution Gaming Group AB: cautious scenario kr 86.58, base kr 147.04, optimistic kr 191.16 per share (as of Oct 3, 2026, price kr 847.10). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 0RQ6?
Evolution Gaming Group AB trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 3.1 (as of Oct 3, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of kr 147.04 is built from several models across several years.
How solid is the balance sheet of Evolution Gaming Group AB (0RQ6)?
Balance-sheet figures for Evolution Gaming Group AB (as of Oct 3, 2026): return on equity 25.0%. They feed the Quality Score of 81/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 0RQ6 from its 52-week high?
Evolution Gaming Group AB trades at kr 847.10, about 2% below its 52-week high of kr 866.00 and 64% above the low of kr 515.80 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of kr 147.04 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Evolution Gaming Group AB?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Flutter Entertainment plc, The Lottery Corporation, Lottomatica Group, Super Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Evolution Gaming Group AB stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 3, 2026: price kr 847.10, calculated fair value kr 147.04 (−83%), Quality Score 81/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 0RQ6 calculated?
We run Evolution Gaming Group AB through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of kr 147.04, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Evolution Gaming Group AB itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Evolution Gaming Group AB (0RQ6)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was kr 847.10. Our model-based fair value is kr 147.04, about −83% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Evolution Gaming Group AB right now?
A high-quality business (quality 81/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety. The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (kr 191.16). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range (kr 86.58 to kr 191.16) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Evolution Gaming Group AB
How large is the market capitalisation of Evolution Gaming Group AB (0RQ6)?
The market capitalisation of Evolution Gaming Group AB is 166B SEK (≈ $16.5B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Evolution Gaming Group AB (0RQ6)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Evolution Gaming Group AB is 1.56 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Evolution Gaming Group AB (0RQ6)?
Earnings per share at Evolution Gaming Group AB are kr 3.03 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 3.1). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Evolution Gaming Group AB (0RQ6)?
The dividend yield of Evolution Gaming Group AB is 0.2% (payout 51.1%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Evolution Gaming Group AB (0RQ6)?
The net margin of Evolution Gaming Group AB is 50.7% (fiscal year 2020). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Evolution Gaming Group AB (0RQ6)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Evolution Gaming Group AB is 25.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Evolution Gaming Group AB (0RQ6)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Evolution Gaming Group AB is 27.6% (avg 3y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Evolution Gaming Group AB (0RQ6)?
The operating margin of Evolution Gaming Group AB is 57.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Evolution Gaming Group AB (0RQ6)?
Revenue at Evolution Gaming Group AB is growing −1.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg +46.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Evolution Gaming Group AB (0RQ6)?
Earnings per share at Evolution Gaming Group AB are growing +1.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
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