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Holmen AB (0XS9) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Jul 17, 2026: fair value of Holmen AB SEK 291, price SEK 309, upside -5.9%, quality 61 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? Yes
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Basic Materials · GB · Home Sweden · ISIN SE0011090018

HA Thin data Sep 24, 2026

Holmen AB

0XS9 · LSE

NeutralThe stock looks roughly fairly valued with average quality.

·Fair value kr 290.67 · Fairly valued (−5.9%)
✓Quality 61/100
!Mixed Growth (revenue 3y +6.7 %/yr)
✓Solidly profitable · 12.3% net margin (TTM)
✓Low debt
✓3.1% dividend yield · Well covered
!Narrow moat 43/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

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Price vs Fair Value

kr 505.24 kr 298.40 Fair Value kr 290.67 Apr 2021 Jul 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range kr 298.40 – kr 505.24 · fair‑value band kr 212.94 – kr 368.40 · the kr 308.80 price screens above the kr 290.67 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

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Company profile

Holmen AB (publ) engages in the forest, paperboard, paper, wood products, and renewable energy businesses in Sweden and internationally. The company operates through Forest, Renewable Energy, Wood Products, and Board and Paper segments. Its Forest segment offers logs, pulpwood, and biofuel to sawmills, pulp mills, and board and paper mills.

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Holmen AB (publ) engages in the forest, paperboard, paper, wood products, and renewable energy businesses in Sweden and internationally. The company operates through Forest, Renewable Energy, Wood Products, and Board and Paper segments. Its Forest segment offers logs, pulpwood, and biofuel to sawmills, pulp mills, and board and paper mills. The Renewable energy segment provides renewable energy from hydro and wind power to the Nordic electricity market. Its Wood Products segment provides construction and joinery timber; CLT and glulam; and plus wood for pallets and packaging to construction, joinery, and packaging industries, as well as builders' merchants. The Board and Paper segment offers paperboards for consumer packaging and paper products for books, magazines, advertising, and transport packaging to brand owners, converters, wholesalers, publishers, printers, and retailers. The company was founded in 1609 and is headquartered in Stockholm, Sweden.

Stock analysis

Holmen AB (0XS9) currently trades at kr 308.80, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is kr 290.67, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 6.2%).

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Valuation

Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of kr 366.95 per share, and 8 of the 25 models we run sit above the kr 308.80 price.

Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at kr 104.29, and 17 of the 25 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.

Scenario range: kr 212.94 (bear) to kr 368.40 (bull), the price of kr 308.80 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 61/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector.

Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.

Holmen AB reported revenue of 19.5B SEK in FY2021 versus 16.1B SEK in FY2017, a compound +4.8%/yr. Reported net income was 3.0B SEK in FY2021, compounding +15.8%/yr from FY2017.

Key figures

Market cap 74.3B SEK (≈ $7.4B) · P/E ratio 0.2 · P/S ratio 0.03 · EPS (TTM) kr 23.47 · Dividend yield 3.1% · Net margin 15.4% · Return on equity 5.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) 9.2%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 47 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 18% below its 52-week high and 3% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 18% fair-value upside, at −6%, 0XS9 screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear kr 212.94 Fair Value kr 290.67 Bull kr 368.40
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF kr 334.25 kr 524.06 kr 803.93 76
EPV kr 96.84 kr 115.33 kr 131.28 74
Growth DCF kr 338.76 kr 504.95 kr 734.45 74
All 25 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF kr 334.25 kr 524.06 kr 803.93 76
5Y Revenue Exit kr 181.74 kr 262.65 kr 361.05 70
5Y EBITDA Exit kr 236.49 kr 365.56 kr 513.27 72
5Y P/E Exit kr 237.23 kr 366.95 kr 501.36 67
10Y Revenue Exit kr 231.85 kr 318.48 kr 427.43 64
10Y EBITDA Exit kr 269.61 kr 388.52 kr 541.51 65
10Y P/E Exit kr 270.07 kr 389.46 kr 532.59 61
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd kr 121.56 kr 387.68 kr 516.83 62
Lynch FV kr 85.59 kr 122.27 kr 158.95 58
PEG = 1.0 kr 85.59 kr 122.27 kr 158.95 55
EPV kr 96.84 kr 115.33 kr 131.28 74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM kr 63.49 kr 126.50 kr 191.56 64
DDM Multi-Stage kr 63.49 kr 104.29 kr 133.53 64
Multiples
P/E Multiple kr 227.92 kr 303.89 kr 379.86 63
P/S Multiple kr 130.45 kr 173.93 kr 217.41 58
P/B Multiple kr 227.92 kr 303.89 kr 379.86 55
EV/EBIT kr 212.94 kr 290.67 kr 368.40 66
EV/EBITDA kr 206.36 kr 281.89 kr 357.43 67
EV/Revenue kr 101.49 kr 153.67 kr 205.84 53
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) kr 139.86 kr 187.42 kr 279.73 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF kr 338.76 kr 504.95 kr 734.45 74
Rev-Margin DCF kr 181.74 kr 267.28 kr 368.09 69
Economic Profit
Residual Income kr 220.33 kr 227.85 kr 247.03 73
ROIC Compounder kr 96.84 kr 115.33 kr 131.28 69
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E kr 194.95 kr 278.50 kr 362.06 65

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 61/100

Of which business quality 64 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 45

Profitability 35
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 68
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 94
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 76
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 33
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 96
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 29
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 16
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 70/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+19.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.7%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
13.4% (2017) → 19.2% (2021)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: no share-count history
not computed

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Paper & Paper Products · 117 stocks

Beats the industry median on 9/10 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 61 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside +15.7% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 5.0% · Above median
Return on assets 1.6% · Above median
Net margin (TTM) 12.3% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 11.6% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth −8.4% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM) 3.1% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.08× · Below median

Valuation Multiplesvs Paper & Paper Products median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 0.2× · Cheapest 25%

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Paper & Paper Products stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
UPM-Kymmene Oyj UPM €24.85 €15.50 −38%
Shandong Sunpaper Co 002078 ¥13.54 ¥16.93 +25%
Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings) Limited 2689 HK$5.88 HK$14.06 +139%
The Navigator Company NVG €3.21 €2.08 −35%
PT Indah Kiat Pulp & Paper Tbk INKP 8,225 IDR 12,607 IDR +53%
Empresas CMPC S.A CMPC 975.00 CLP 1,371 CLP +41%
Xianhe Co 603733 ¥17.74 ¥18.80 +6%
Billerud AB BILL kr 81.05 kr 49.11 −39%
Semapa - Sociedade de Investimento e Gestão, SGPS, S.A SEM €19.90 €23.55 +18%
MCC Meili Cloud Computing Industry Investment Co 000815 ¥14.25 ¥1.56 −89%

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Holmen AB · Fair Value
kr 290.67 −6%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Holmen AB Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/0XS9

Frequently asked questions

Is Holmen AB (0XS9) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of kr 290.67 versus the last price from Jul 17, 2026 of kr 308.80, about −6% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of 0XS9?
Our model-based fair value for Holmen AB is kr 290.67 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. Last price (from Jul 17, 2026): kr 308.80.
What is the quality score of 0XS9?
Holmen AB has a Quality Score of 61/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Holmen AB (0XS9)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of kr 290.67 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 25 valuation models. Cautious scenario kr 212.94, optimistic scenario kr 368.40. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Holmen AB stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at kr 290.67, about −6% upside versus the last price from Jul 17, 2026 of kr 308.80 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario kr 212.94, optimistic scenario kr 368.40. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Holmen AB (0XS9)?
Holmen AB reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 22.3B SEK (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Holmen AB pay a dividend?
Holmen AB currently shows a dividend yield of about 3.08% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Holmen AB (0XS9)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Holmen AB it is kr 290.67 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of kr 308.80. It is the blended result of 25 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Holmen AB stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, 0XS9 trades above its calculated fair value: price kr 308.80, fair value kr 290.67, a gap of about −6% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 0XS9?
No. The price is what the market pays today (kr 308.80); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (kr 290.67). For Holmen AB the two are kr 18.13 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Holmen AB worth?
The market values Holmen AB at about 74.3B SEK (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is kr 308.80; our models calculate a fair value of kr 290.67 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 0XS9?
Our models span a range for Holmen AB: cautious scenario kr 212.94, base kr 290.67, optimistic kr 368.40 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price kr 308.80). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 0XS9?
Holmen AB trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 0.2 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of kr 290.67 is built from several models across several years.
How solid is the balance sheet of Holmen AB (0XS9)?
Balance-sheet figures for Holmen AB (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 5.0%, debt of 0.08 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 61/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 0XS9 from its 52-week high?
Holmen AB trades at kr 308.80, about 18% below its 52-week high of kr 377.04 and 3% above the low of kr 298.40 (as of Jul 17, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of kr 290.67 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Holmen AB?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value UPM-Kymmene Oyj, Shandong Sunpaper Co, Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings) Limited, The Navigator Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Holmen AB stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price kr 308.80, calculated fair value kr 290.67 (−6%), Quality Score 61/100, from 25 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 0XS9 calculated?
We run Holmen AB through 25 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of kr 290.67, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Holmen AB itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Holmen AB (0XS9)?
The latest price we hold is from Jul 17, 2026 and stands at kr 308.80. Our model-based fair value is kr 290.67, about −6% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Holmen AB right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.

Key figures of Holmen AB

How large is the market capitalisation of Holmen AB (0XS9)?
The market capitalisation of Holmen AB is 74.3B SEK (≈ $7.4B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Holmen AB (0XS9)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Holmen AB is 0.03 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Holmen AB (0XS9)?
Earnings per share at Holmen AB are kr 23.47 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 0.2). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Holmen AB (0XS9)?
The dividend yield of Holmen AB is 3.1% (payout 40.5%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Holmen AB (0XS9)?
The net margin of Holmen AB is 15.4% (fiscal year 2021). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Holmen AB (0XS9)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Holmen AB is 5.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Holmen AB (0XS9)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Holmen AB is 9.2% (avg 4y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Holmen AB (0XS9)?
The operating margin of Holmen AB is 11.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Holmen AB (0XS9)?
Revenue at Holmen AB is growing −8.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg +6.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Holmen AB (0XS9)?
Earnings per share at Holmen AB are growing −16.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
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