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Matrix Holdings Ltd (1005) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Nov 13, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Matrix Holdings Ltd stock HK$0.35, price HK$0.43, that is 19.3% below the price, quality 45 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. The value is an estimate: none of our valuation models currently carries, it draws on revenue and assets compared with similar companies. Updated daily.

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Consumer Cyclical HK · ISIN BMG5888V1265

MH Matrix Holdings Ltd logo Thin data Nov 10, 2026

Matrix Holdings Ltd

1005 · HK

Expensive (fair value 19% below the price), weak company and falling price: meets none of the 3 rules.

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Low debt 
Revenue last quarter +28% vs. a year ago. 
Quality 45/100 
2.3% dividend yield · Watch coverage
Fair value HK$0.3471 · Overvalued 
Falling price (downtrend) 
Weak Growth (revenue 5y −11.7 %/yr in HKD) 
Loss-making · -26.6% net margin (TTM) 
Negative free cash flow 
Trails peers (4/11) 
Narrow moat 10/100 · thin data
Thin data 
Estimate⚠ Thinly traded
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

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Price vs Fair Value

HK$2.71 HK$0.3400 Fair Value HK$0.3471 Jul 2021 Nov 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 10, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range HK$0.3400 – HK$2.71 · fair‑value band HK$0.2603 – HK$0.4338 · the HK$0.4300 price screens above the HK$0.3471 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 10, 2026.

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Company profile

Matrix Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, manufactures and trades in toys and lighting products and property development in Hong Kong. It offers plastic, die-cast, and plush toys.

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The company also engages in the purchase and trading of toys; wholesale distribution and importation of toys, and sale of accessories connected with its products; property development; and provision of management services.

It has operations in the People's Republic of China, Vietnam, the United States, Canada, Europe, Australia, South America, Mexico, and internationally. The company was incorporated in 1993 and is headquartered in Tsim Sha Tsui, Hong Kong.

Matrix Holdings Limited operates as a subsidiary of Smart Forest Limited.

Stock analysis

Matrix Holdings Ltd (1005) currently trades at HK$0.4300, while our estimate is HK$0.3471, 19% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

None of our valuation models currently carries for this company, usually because of losses or heavy investment. The estimate draws on revenue and assets compared with similar companies and is less precise than a model-based fair value.

Scenario range: HK$0.2603 (bear) to HK$0.4338 (bull), the price of HK$0.4300 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 45/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.

Matrix Holdings Ltd reported revenue of HK$483M in FY2025 versus HK$1.1B in FY2021, a compound −18.3%/yr. Reported net income was −HK$164M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap HK$325M (≈ $41.4M) Micro · P/S ratio 0.54 · Dividend yield 2.3% · Net margin −33.9% · Return on equity −39.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) −13.1% (5-year average) · Operating margin 3.1% · Revenue (TTM) HK$550M.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 10 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 17% below its 52-week high and 26% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 40% fair-value upside, at −19%, 1005 screens richer than that median.

Fair Value

Bear HK$0.2603 Fair Value HK$0.3471 Bull HK$0.4338
Price HK$0.4300 · Downside -19.3%
Estimate. None of our valuation models currently carries for this company, usually because of losses or heavy investment. The estimate draws on revenue and assets compared with similar companies and is less precise than a model-based fair value.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 45/100

It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.

Profitability 18
How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital
Quality Growth 67
Are margins and returns getting better?
Cashflow 0
Do the profits arrive as real cash?
Financial strength 49
Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble
Investment 97
Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?
Low Volatility 50
How calm the share price moves, does not count
Price momentum 29
Price momentum of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count
Near the 52-week high 32
Distance to the 52-week high, does not count
New shares 82
Buys back shares or issues new ones?

Open the full quality analysis →

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 6/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+5.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−21.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−11.7%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −9.3% a year
Revenue growth 25 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.0%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
1.6% (2020) → −32.3% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

1005 screens overvalued: fair value 19% below the price. Compare with Pop Mart International Group →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Leisure · 183 stocks

Beats the industry median on 3/9 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 45 · Below median
Fair Value upside −19.3% · Below median
Profitability
Return on assets −25.7% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (12 months) −26.6% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months) 3.1% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY) 28.2% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (12 months) 2.3% · Below median

Valuation Multiplesvs Leisure median · lower = cheaper

P/B 1.08× · Cheaper than median
P/S (12 months) 0.59× · Cheapest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)8 · sector 31
FUTURE (revenue growth)100 · sector 25
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 24
HEALTH (low debt)100 · sector 94
DIVIDEND (yield)47 · sector 47

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Leisure stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value Compare
Li Ning Company 2331 HK$15.07 HK$29.34 +95% vs 1005
Ninebot Limited 689009 ¥32.80 ¥52.88 +61% vs 1005
Mattel, Inc MAT $15.12 $22.25 +47% vs 1005
Pop Mart International Group 9992 HK$142.10 HK$207.44 +46% vs 1005
YETI Holdings YETI $39.42 $55.12 +40% vs 1005
Planet Fitness, Inc PLNT $61.18 $67.30 +10% vs 1005
Amer Sports, Inc AS $29.94 $19.17 −36% vs 1005
Acushnet Holdings GOLF $82.94 $44.21 −47% vs 1005
Life Time Group LTH $46.52 $16.00 −66% vs 1005
Hasbro, Inc HAS $120.55 $32.71 −73% vs 1005

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Matrix Holdings Ltd: fair value per Fair Value Calculator

Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Matrix Holdings Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/1005

Frequently asked questions

Is Matrix Holdings Ltd (1005) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 10, 2026, our estimate of fair value is HK$0.3471 versus a price of HK$0.4300, about 19% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 1005?
Our estimate for Matrix Holdings Ltd is HK$0.3471 (as of Nov 10, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$0.4300.
What is the quality score of 1005?
Matrix Holdings Ltd has a Quality Score of 45/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Matrix Holdings Ltd (1005)?
Our calculated price target is the estimate of HK$0.3471 (as of Nov 10, 2026). Cautious scenario HK$0.2603, optimistic scenario HK$0.4338. It is an estimate from revenue and assets compared with similar companies, because none of our valuation models currently carries, not an analyst target.
What is the Matrix Holdings Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our estimate puts fair value at HK$0.3471, about 19% lower versus a price of HK$0.4300 (overvalued). Cautious scenario HK$0.2603, optimistic scenario HK$0.4338. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Matrix Holdings Ltd (1005)?
Matrix Holdings Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$550M (latest available figure, as of Nov 10, 2026).
Does Matrix Holdings Ltd pay a dividend?
Matrix Holdings Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of 2.33% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 10, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Matrix Holdings Ltd (1005) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Matrix Holdings Ltd pays a dividend of HK$0.01 per share a year, a dividend yield of 2.3%. The last ex-dividend date was Sep 10, 2025. A dividend has been paid every year since at least 2002. Our assessment: Watch coverage. The dividend isn’t fully covered by free cash flow or earnings, part of it is funded from reserves or debt. Fine for now, but worth watching: if it stays uncovered, the dividend could be cut.
What is the intrinsic value of Matrix Holdings Ltd (1005)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Matrix Holdings Ltd it is HK$0.3471 per share (as of Nov 10, 2026), against a price of HK$0.4300.
Is Matrix Holdings Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 10, 2026, 1005 trades above its calculated fair value: price HK$0.4300, fair value HK$0.3471, a gap of about −19% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 1005?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$0.4300); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$0.3471). For Matrix Holdings Ltd the two are HK$0.0829 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Matrix Holdings Ltd worth?
The market values Matrix Holdings Ltd at about HK$325M (market capitalisation, as of Nov 10, 2026). Per share that is HK$0.4300; our models calculate a fair value of HK$0.3471 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 1005?
Our models span a range for Matrix Holdings Ltd: cautious scenario HK$0.2603, base HK$0.3471, optimistic HK$0.4338 per share (as of Nov 10, 2026, price HK$0.4300). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Matrix Holdings Ltd (1005)?
Balance-sheet figures for Matrix Holdings Ltd (as of Nov 10, 2026): return on equity −39.4%. They feed the Quality Score of 45/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 1005 from its 52-week high?
Matrix Holdings Ltd trades at HK$0.4300, about 17% below its 52-week high of HK$0.5200 and 26% above the low of HK$0.3400 (as of Nov 13, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$0.3471 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Matrix Holdings Ltd?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Pop Mart International Group, Amer Sports, Inc, Hasbro, Inc, Life Time Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Matrix Holdings Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 10, 2026: price HK$0.4300, calculated fair value HK$0.3471 (−19%), Quality Score 45/100. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.9% above its aggregate fair value. Matrix Holdings Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Matrix Holdings Ltd (1005)?
The closing price on Nov 13, 2026 was HK$0.4300. Our estimate is HK$0.3471, about 19% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Matrix Holdings Ltd right now?
Weak quality (45/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.

Key figures of Matrix Holdings Ltd

How large is the market capitalisation of Matrix Holdings Ltd (1005)?
The market capitalisation of Matrix Holdings Ltd is HK$325M (≈ $41.4M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Matrix Holdings Ltd (1005)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Matrix Holdings Ltd is 0.54 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What is the dividend yield of Matrix Holdings Ltd (1005)?
The dividend yield of Matrix Holdings Ltd is 2.3%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Matrix Holdings Ltd (1005)?
The net margin of Matrix Holdings Ltd is −33.9% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Matrix Holdings Ltd (1005)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Matrix Holdings Ltd is −39.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Matrix Holdings Ltd (1005)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Matrix Holdings Ltd is −13.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Matrix Holdings Ltd (1005)?
The operating margin of Matrix Holdings Ltd is 3.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Matrix Holdings Ltd (1005)?
Revenue at Matrix Holdings Ltd is growing +28.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg −21.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much free cash flow does Matrix Holdings Ltd (1005) generate?
The free cash flow of Matrix Holdings Ltd is −HK$77.0M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Matrix Holdings Ltd (1005) carry?
The net debt of Matrix Holdings Ltd is HK$58.2M (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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