Matrix Holdings (1005) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · HK · Market cap HK$299M
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 1 valuation models · updated 2 days ago
Share price +7.7% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 71% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (HK$0.1500). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (46/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- A fairly wide model range (HK$0.0800 to HK$0.1500) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$0.3400 – HK$2.71 · fair‑value band HK$0.0800 – HK$0.1500 · the HK$0.4200 price screens above the HK$0.1200 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
Matrix Holdings (1005) currently trades at HK$0.4200, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$0.1200, implying the stock looks roughly 71.4% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 46/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: low).
Over the trailing twelve months, Matrix Holdings generated revenue of HK$483M at a net margin of -33.9%. Revenue declined 6.6% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -41.7%. Net debt stands at HK$58.2M. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from HK$0.0800 (bear case) to HK$0.1500 (bull case); at HK$0.4200, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 32% below its 52-week high and 24% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 11% fair-value upside, at -71%, 1005 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 1 models by family
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 45 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 41
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Matrix Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, manufactures and trades in toys and lighting products and property development in Hong Kong. It offers plastic, die-cast, and plush toys.
Full company description
Matrix Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, manufactures and trades in toys and lighting products and property development in Hong Kong. It offers plastic, die-cast, and plush toys. The company also engages in the purchase and trading of toys; wholesale distribution and importation of toys, and sale of accessories connected with its products; property development; and provision of management services. It has operations in the People's Republic of China, Vietnam, the United States, Canada, Europe, Australia, South America, Mexico, and internationally. The company was incorporated in 1993 and is headquartered in Tsim Sha Tsui, Hong Kong. Matrix Holdings Limited operates as a subsidiary of Smart Forest Limited.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Matrix Holdings reported revenue of HK$483M in FY2025 versus HK$1.1B in FY2021, a compound −18.3%/yr. Reported net income was −HK$164M in FY2025.
1005 screens 71% overvalued. Compare with ANTA Sports Products Limited →
Peer Group
Leisure · 190 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Leisure median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Leisure stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| ANTA Sports Products Limited 2020 | HK$72.80 | HK$119.82 | +65% |
| Pop Mart International Group 9992 | HK$151.00 | HK$227.30 | +51% |
| Amer Sports, Inc AS | $33.03 | $16.16 | -51% |
| Hasbro, Inc HAS | $94.89 | $81.97 | -14% |
| Life Time Group LTH | $43.81 | $15.61 | -64% |
| Ninebot Limited 689009 | ¥44.94 | ¥39.73 | -12% |
| Li Ning Company 2331 | HK$14.59 | HK$29.45 | +102% |
| Asmodee Group ASMDEEB | kr 158.70 | kr 96.65 | -39% |
| Smartfit Escola de Ginástica e Dança S.A SMFT3 | R$17.25 | R$22.90 | +33% |
| Songcheng Performance Development Co 300144 | ¥6.17 | ¥6.85 | +11% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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