EN DE
Check 35,000+ stocks against 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors
Data-driven stock valuation

Matrix Holdings Ltd (1005) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 29, 2026: fair value of Matrix Holdings Ltd HK$0.12, price HK$0.39, upside -69.2%, quality 46 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? No
  3. Add to watchlist

Consumer Cyclical · HK · ISIN BMG5888V1265

MH Thin data Sep 27, 2026

Matrix Holdings Ltd

1005 · HK

Weakest SetupStrongly overvalued and low quality.

!Fair value HK$0.1200 · Strongly overvalued (−69.2%)
!Quality 46/100
!Weak Growth (revenue 5y −11.7 %/yr)
!Loss-making · -33.9% net margin (TTM)
!Low debt · negative free cash flow
!2.6% dividend yield · Watch coverage
!Trails peers (3/11)
!Narrow moat 0/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
Watch Matrix Holdings Ltd for free, get notified when fair value or trend changes. Plus fair value for all 35,000+ stocks, 14 days of Pro free, no card. Watch for free Pro now: $1 first month

What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

HK$2.71 HK$0.3400 Fair Value HK$0.1200 May 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range HK$0.3400 – HK$2.71 · fair‑value band HK$0.0800 – HK$0.1500 · the HK$0.3900 price screens above the HK$0.1200 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.

Follow Matrix Holdings in your weekly email

Every Wednesday you see whether Matrix Holdings is on track or worth a review, plus price against fair value. Free, up to 3 stocks.

We send you a confirmation link. Unsubscribe with one click.

Which stocks are undervalued right now? Check free Discover now →

Company profile

Matrix Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, manufactures and trades in toys and lighting products and property development in Hong Kong. It offers plastic, die-cast, and plush toys.

Show more

Matrix Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, manufactures and trades in toys and lighting products and property development in Hong Kong. It offers plastic, die-cast, and plush toys. The company also engages in the purchase and trading of toys; wholesale distribution and importation of toys, and sale of accessories connected with its products; property development; and provision of management services. It has operations in the People's Republic of China, Vietnam, the United States, Canada, Europe, Australia, South America, Mexico, and internationally. The company was incorporated in 1993 and is headquartered in Tsim Sha Tsui, Hong Kong. Matrix Holdings Limited operates as a subsidiary of Smart Forest Limited.

Stock analysis

Matrix Holdings Ltd (1005) currently trades at HK$0.3900, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$0.1200, 69.2% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

Show more

Valuation

How firm this estimate is: it rests on 1 models at a data quality of 92/100, which puts the evidence level at low.

Scenario range: HK$0.0800 (bear) to HK$0.1500 (bull), the price of HK$0.3900 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 46/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.

Matrix Holdings Ltd reported revenue of HK$483M in FY2025 versus HK$1.1B in FY2021, a compound −18.3%/yr. Reported net income was −HK$164M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap HK$295M (≈ $37.6M) · P/S ratio 0.62 · EPS (TTM) HK$−0.0200 · Dividend yield 2.6% · Net margin −33.9% · Return on equity −41.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) −13.1% · Operating margin −46.9%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 33% below its 52-week high and 15% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 36% fair-value upside, at −69%, 1005 screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear HK$0.0800 Fair Value HK$0.1200 Bull HK$0.1500
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
NCAV (Graham) HK$0.2000 HK$0.2700 HK$0.4000 54
All 1 models by family
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) HK$0.2000 HK$0.2700 HK$0.4000 54

Open the full fair value analysis →

Notify me when 1005 reaches fair value

Put 1005 on your watchlist. We get in touch as soon as price and fair value meet or the trend turns.

Set up alert →

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 46/100

Of which business quality 45 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 29

Profitability 18
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 67
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 0
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 49
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 97
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 50
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 25
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 13
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 82
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

Open the full quality analysis →

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 6/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+5.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−21.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−11.7%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −9.3% a year
Revenue growth 25 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.0%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
1.6% (2020) → −32.3% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

1005 screens overvalued: fair value 69% below the price. Compare with Pop Mart International Group →

Compare Matrix Holdings Ltd with another stock

Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.

Free, no sign-up

Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Leisure · 184 stocks

Beats the industry median on 2/9 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 45 · Below median
Fair Value upside −69.2% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets −14.1% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM) −33.9% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM) −46.9% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth −6.6% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM) 2.6% · Below median

Valuation Multiplesvs Leisure median · lower = cheaper

P/B 0.13× · Cheapest 25%
P/S (TTM) 0.08× · Cheapest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 39
FUTURE (revenue growth)0 · sector 18
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 22
HEALTH (low debt)100 · sector 93
DIVIDEND (yield)51 · sector 58

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Leisure stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Pop Mart International Group 9992 HK$152.10 HK$206.97 +36%
ANTA Sports Products Limited 2020 HK$71.20 HK$166.89 +134%
Amer Sports, Inc AS $27.77 $19.30 −31%
Hasbro, Inc HAS $88.09 $85.98 −2%
Life Time Group LTH $39.97 $15.55 −61%
Acushnet Holdings GOLF $83.02 $43.08 −48%
Li Ning Company 2331 HK$12.24 HK$29.18 +138%
Fluidra, S.A FDR €18.12 €19.93 +10%
Mattel, Inc MAT $13.29 $21.66 +63%
Planet Fitness, Inc PLNT $42.68 $65.72 +54%

Explore undervalued stocks

More undervalued Consumer Cyclical stocks →

All undervalued stocks TechnologyFinancial ServicesHealthcareConsumer CyclicalConsumer DefensiveCommunication ServicesIndustrialsEnergyBasic MaterialsReal EstateUtilities Deeply Undervalued StocksUndervalued High-Quality StocksUndervalued Blue-Chip StocksUndervalued Small-Cap StocksUndervalued Dividend Stocks

Try a ready-made strategy

Pick a strategy and jump into the live analysis with that exact screen applied.

🥇 Backtested Best 🏆 Big Names ⭐ Top Rated 💎 Quality on Sale 🚀 Profitable Growth 🧊 Quality Compounders 💵 Dividend Stars 📈 Strong Momentum 📉 Fallen Angels ⚖️ Deeply Undervalued 🔍 Small-Cap Gems 🏰 Moat at a Fair Price 💼 Insider Buying 🎩 Buffett-Style Quality 📚 Peter Lynch GARP 🧮 Greenblatt Magic Formula 🛡️ Graham Defensive

Discover tools

Stock screenerFilter by region, size and sector Compare toolTwo stocks side by side Extrinsic Value Calculator…Calculator with industry benchmark Peter Lynch Fair Value Formula &…Calculator with industry benchmark
Run the numbers yourself: free valuation calculators
DCF CalculatorGraham NumberPeter Lynch FormulaDDM CalculatorFama-French ModelIntrinsic Value
For bloggers & editors: embed code + live data

For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.

Matrix Holdings Ltd · Fair Value
HK$0.1200 −69%Fair Value
Calculator →

Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Matrix Holdings Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/1005

Frequently asked questions

Is Matrix Holdings Ltd (1005) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$0.1200 versus a price of HK$0.3900, about −69% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 1005?
Our model-based fair value for Matrix Holdings Ltd is HK$0.1200 (as of Sep 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$0.3900.
What is the quality score of 1005?
Matrix Holdings Ltd has a Quality Score of 46/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Matrix Holdings Ltd (1005)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$0.1200 (as of Sep 27, 2026) from 1 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$0.0800, optimistic scenario HK$0.1500. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Matrix Holdings Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$0.1200, about −69% upside versus a price of HK$0.3900 (overvalued). Cautious scenario HK$0.0800, optimistic scenario HK$0.1500. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Matrix Holdings Ltd (1005)?
Matrix Holdings Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$483M (latest available figure, as of Sep 27, 2026).
Does Matrix Holdings Ltd pay a dividend?
Matrix Holdings Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.56% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 27, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Matrix Holdings Ltd (1005)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Matrix Holdings Ltd it is HK$0.1200 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026), against a price of HK$0.3900. It is the blended result of 1 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Matrix Holdings Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 27, 2026, 1005 trades above its calculated fair value: price HK$0.3900, fair value HK$0.1200, a gap of about −69% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 1005?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$0.3900); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$0.1200). For Matrix Holdings Ltd the two are HK$0.2700 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Matrix Holdings Ltd worth?
The market values Matrix Holdings Ltd at about HK$295M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 27, 2026). Per share that is HK$0.3900; our models calculate a fair value of HK$0.1200 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 1005?
Our models span a range for Matrix Holdings Ltd: cautious scenario HK$0.0800, base HK$0.1200, optimistic HK$0.1500 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026, price HK$0.3900). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Matrix Holdings Ltd (1005)?
Balance-sheet figures for Matrix Holdings Ltd (as of Sep 27, 2026): return on equity −41.7%. They feed the Quality Score of 46/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 1005 from its 52-week high?
Matrix Holdings Ltd trades at HK$0.3900, about 33% below its 52-week high of HK$0.5800 and 15% above the low of HK$0.3400 (as of Sep 29, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$0.1200 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Matrix Holdings Ltd?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Pop Mart International Group, ANTA Sports Products Limited, Amer Sports, Inc, Hasbro, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Matrix Holdings Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 27, 2026: price HK$0.3900, calculated fair value HK$0.1200 (−69%), Quality Score 46/100, from 1 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 1005 calculated?
We run Matrix Holdings Ltd through 1 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$0.1200, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.9 % above its aggregate fair value. Matrix Holdings Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Matrix Holdings Ltd (1005)?
The closing price on Sep 29, 2026 was HK$0.3900. Our model-based fair value is HK$0.1200, about −69% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Matrix Holdings Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (HK$0.1500). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (46/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range (HK$0.0800 to HK$0.1500) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Key figures of Matrix Holdings Ltd

How large is the market capitalisation of Matrix Holdings Ltd (1005)?
The market capitalisation of Matrix Holdings Ltd is HK$295M (≈ $37.6M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Matrix Holdings Ltd (1005)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Matrix Holdings Ltd is 0.62 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Matrix Holdings Ltd (1005)?
Earnings per share at Matrix Holdings Ltd are HK$−0.0200. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Matrix Holdings Ltd (1005)?
The dividend yield of Matrix Holdings Ltd is 2.6%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Matrix Holdings Ltd (1005)?
The net margin of Matrix Holdings Ltd is −33.9% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Matrix Holdings Ltd (1005)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Matrix Holdings Ltd is −41.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Matrix Holdings Ltd (1005)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Matrix Holdings Ltd is −13.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Matrix Holdings Ltd (1005)?
The operating margin of Matrix Holdings Ltd is −46.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Matrix Holdings Ltd (1005)?
Revenue at Matrix Holdings Ltd is growing −6.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg −21.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much free cash flow does Matrix Holdings Ltd (1005) generate?
The free cash flow of Matrix Holdings Ltd is −HK$77.0M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Matrix Holdings Ltd (1005) carry?
The net debt of Matrix Holdings Ltd is HK$58.2M (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
Free · no account needed

Watch Matrix Holdings Ltd in the live analysis

One click puts Matrix Holdings Ltd on your watchlist: fair value and trend at a glance, plus comparison, the diversification check and the 35,000+ stock screener. You can also try 14 days of Pro there, no card.

Watch for free →

Zero risk: nothing is ever charged. Your watchlist is yours, with or without an account.