Goodbaby International Holdings Ltd (1086) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 16, 2026: fair value of Goodbaby International Holdings Ltd HK$2.87, price HK$1.42, upside +102.8%, quality 60 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 1, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$0.3427 – HK$2.23 · fair‑value band HK$2.45 – HK$3.59 · the HK$1.42 price screens below the HK$2.87 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 1, 2026.
Follow Goodbaby International Holdings in your weekly email
Every Wednesday you see whether Goodbaby International Holdings is on track or worth a review, plus price against fair value. Free, up to 3 stocks.
We send you a confirmation link. Unsubscribe with one click.
Goodbaby International Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the design, research and development, manufacturing, marketing, and distribution of products for children in Europe, the Middle East, India, Africa, the Americas, and the Asia Pacific.
Show moreShow less
It operates through three segments: Wheeled goods, Car Seats, and Others.
The company offers wheeled goods, and accessories, including strollers, jogging strollers, and other child conveyances; car safety seats and accessories for child; and other children's products, such as apparels, personal care and sanitary products, home textiles, toys, activities, kids ride-on products, home furniture for child, and other similar products.
It also manufactures, distributes, and sells safety belts, cloth sets, car safety seats, car components for children, infant strollers, bicycles, strollers, pushchairs, high chairs, and other products for children; tests children's products, tools, electronic products; provides advisory service for risk valuation of product quality, IT services, and share service center; purchase, sale, holding and management of participating interests; wholesale, retail, and e-commerce of children's products; and distributes and sells other parenting products.
It sells its products under the CYBEX, gb, Evenflo, Rollplay, ExerSaucer, Urbini, and hd brands. International Holdings Limited was founded in 1989 and is headquartered in Kunshan, the People's Republic of China.
Stock analysis
Goodbaby International Holdings Ltd (1086) currently trades at HK$1.42, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$2.87, implying the stock looks roughly 50.7% undervalued today.
Show more
Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of HK$4.58 per share, and 22 of the 23 models we run sit above the HK$1.42 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at HK$1.54, and 1 of the 23 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: HK$2.45 (bear) to HK$3.59 (bull), the price of HK$1.42 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 60/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Weak Growth: Growth has flattened: the last year, three and five years all grew more slowly than the long-term average.
Goodbaby International Holdings Ltd reported revenue of HK$8.7B in FY2025 versus HK$9.7B in FY2021, a compound −2.8%/yr. Reported net income was HK$219M in FY2025, compounding +15.3%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap HK$2.4B (≈ $309M) · P/E ratio 6.0 · P/S ratio 0.15 · Net margin 2.5% · Return on equity 6.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.2% · Operating margin 9.5% · Revenue (TTM) HK$8.9B.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 36 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 1% below its 52-week high and 75% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 29% fair-value upside, at 103%, 1086 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
BearHK$2.45Fair Value HK$2.87BullHK$3.59
Price HK$1.42 · Upside +102.8%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Growth has flattened: the last year, three and five years all grew more slowly than the long-term average.
Revenue growth 1 year
−1.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+0.8%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +2.2% a year
Revenue growth 18 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.9%
’14
’15
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+1.0%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+1.0%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.1.0% vs −3.3%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.5% → 4%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−23.7%
The company could shrink this much every year for the next five years and today's price would still be justified.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Hong Kong: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.8% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −25.3% a year for the price.
Compare Goodbaby International Holdings Ltd with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Free, no sign-up
Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Leisure · 170 stocks
Beats the industry median on 11/15 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score60 · Above median
Fair Value upside+102.8% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)6.2% · Above median
Return on assets2.1% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)4.4% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months)9.5% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth5.8% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)17.7% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.13× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Leisure median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Goodbaby International Holdings Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/1086
Frequently asked questions
Is Goodbaby International Holdings Ltd (1086) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 1, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$2.87 versus a price of HK$1.42, about +103% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 1086?
Our model-based fair value for Goodbaby International Holdings Ltd is HK$2.87 (as of Oct 1, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$1.42.
What is the quality score of 1086?
Goodbaby International Holdings Ltd has a Quality Score of 60/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Goodbaby International Holdings Ltd (1086)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$2.87 (as of Oct 1, 2026) from 23 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$2.45, optimistic scenario HK$3.59. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Goodbaby International Holdings Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$2.87, about +103% upside versus a price of HK$1.42 (undervalued). Cautious scenario HK$2.45, optimistic scenario HK$3.59. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Goodbaby International Holdings Ltd (1086)?
Goodbaby International Holdings Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$8.9B (latest available figure, as of Oct 1, 2026).
What growth is priced into Goodbaby International Holdings Ltd (1086)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Goodbaby International Holdings Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by -23.7 % per year for five years (discount rate 12.7 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +0.8 % per year. As of Oct 1, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 1086 use?
Our models discount Goodbaby International Holdings Ltd at 12.7 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 0.81, country premium for Hong Kong. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Goodbaby International Holdings Ltd that is -23.7 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (12.7 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Goodbaby International Holdings Ltd (1086) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Goodbaby International Holdings Ltd grew +0.8 % a year. The price currently implies -23.7 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Goodbaby International Holdings Ltd (1086) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.4 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Goodbaby International Holdings Ltd (-23.7 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Goodbaby International Holdings Ltd (1086)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 33.71 %: that much free cash flow Goodbaby International Holdings Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (12.7 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Goodbaby International Holdings Ltd (1086)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Goodbaby International Holdings Ltd it is HK$2.87 per share (as of Oct 1, 2026), against a price of HK$1.42. It is the blended result of 23 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Goodbaby International Holdings Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 1, 2026, 1086 trades below its calculated fair value: price HK$1.42, fair value HK$2.87, a gap of about +103% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 1086?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$1.42); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$2.87). For Goodbaby International Holdings Ltd the two are HK$1.46 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Goodbaby International Holdings Ltd worth?
The market values Goodbaby International Holdings Ltd at about HK$2.4B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 1, 2026). Per share that is HK$1.42; our models calculate a fair value of HK$2.87 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 1086?
Our models span a range for Goodbaby International Holdings Ltd: cautious scenario HK$2.45, base HK$2.87, optimistic HK$3.59 per share (as of Oct 1, 2026, price HK$1.42). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 1086?
Goodbaby International Holdings Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 6.0 (as of Oct 1, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of HK$2.87 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 2.0, P/B 0.4, P/S 0.3, EV/EBITDA 2.1.
What is the PEG ratio of 1086?
The PEG ratio of Goodbaby International Holdings Ltd is 2.02 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Oct 1, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Goodbaby International Holdings Ltd (1086)?
Balance-sheet figures for Goodbaby International Holdings Ltd (as of Oct 1, 2026): return on equity 6.2%, debt of 0.13 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 60/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 1086 from its 52-week high?
Goodbaby International Holdings Ltd trades at HK$1.42, about 1% below its 52-week high of HK$1.44 and 75% above the low of HK$0.8100 (as of Oct 16, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$2.87 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Goodbaby International Holdings Ltd?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Pop Mart International Group, Amer Sports, Inc, Hasbro, Inc, Life Time Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Goodbaby International Holdings Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 1, 2026: price HK$1.42, calculated fair value HK$2.87 (+103%), Quality Score 60/100, from 23 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 1086 calculated?
We run Goodbaby International Holdings Ltd through 23 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$2.87, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.4 % above its aggregate fair value. Goodbaby International Holdings Ltd currently trades 51 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Goodbaby International Holdings Ltd (1086)?
The closing price on Oct 16, 2026 was HK$1.42. Our model-based fair value is HK$2.87, about +103% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Goodbaby International Holdings Ltd right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (HK$2.45). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid quality (60/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Where does the earnings growth of Goodbaby International Holdings Ltd (1086) come from?
Earnings per share at Goodbaby International Holdings Ltd grew +1.1 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share −1.6 %, EBIT margin +3.1 %, tax rate −0.2 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.0 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Goodbaby International Holdings Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Goodbaby International Holdings Ltd (1086)?
The market capitalisation of Goodbaby International Holdings Ltd is HK$2.4B (≈ $309M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Goodbaby International Holdings Ltd (1086)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Goodbaby International Holdings Ltd is 0.15 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What is the net margin of Goodbaby International Holdings Ltd (1086)?
The net margin of Goodbaby International Holdings Ltd is 2.5% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Goodbaby International Holdings Ltd (1086)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Goodbaby International Holdings Ltd is 6.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Goodbaby International Holdings Ltd (1086)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Goodbaby International Holdings Ltd is 2.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Goodbaby International Holdings Ltd (1086)?
The operating margin of Goodbaby International Holdings Ltd is 9.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Goodbaby International Holdings Ltd (1086)?
Revenue at Goodbaby International Holdings Ltd is growing +5.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg +1.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Goodbaby International Holdings Ltd (1086)?
Earnings per share at Goodbaby International Holdings Ltd are growing +167% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Goodbaby International Holdings Ltd (1086) carry?
The net debt of Goodbaby International Holdings Ltd is HK$149M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 0.2 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
Free · no account needed
Watch Goodbaby International Holdings Ltd in the live analysis
One click puts Goodbaby International Holdings Ltd on your watchlist: fair value and trend at a glance, plus comparison, the diversification check and the 35,000+ stock screener.
Thin data
Oct 1, 2026