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Goodbaby International Holdings Ltd (1086) Fair Value & Analysis

Consumer Cyclical · HK · Market cap HK$1.4B (≈ $175M) · ISIN KYG398141013

What is Goodbaby International Holdings Ltd really worth?

GI Goodbaby International Holdings Ltd 1086 · HK
PriceHK$1.09
Fair ValueHK$2.88
Upside+164.2%
Quality57/100

A solid business, trading 62% below our fair value of HK$2.88.

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Strengths

✓Low debt · generates free cash flow

Risks

!Weak Growth (revenue 5y +0.8 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 2.5% net margin
!Mixed vs. peers (8/15)
!Narrow moat 31/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
!Weak on past: 15 out of 100

For context

·4.59% dividend yield
Evidence: Low Range HK$2.16 – HK$3.59

Fair value as of: Aug 22, 2026

From 23 valuation models · updated 11 days ago

Share price +22.5% over the past month.

What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

What matters now

  • The price is below even our cautious bear case (HK$2.16). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
  • The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
  • Solid quality (57/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

HK$2.23 HK$0.3427 Fair Value HK$2.88 Apr 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 22, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range HK$0.3427 – HK$2.23 · fair‑value band HK$2.16 – HK$3.59 · the HK$1.09 price screens below the HK$2.88 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 22, 2026.

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Analysis

Goodbaby International Holdings Ltd (1086) currently trades at HK$1.09, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$2.88, implying the stock looks roughly 62.2% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 57/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of HK$4.65 per share, and 22 of the 23 models we run sit above the HK$1.09 price. Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at HK$1.71, and 1 of the 23 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.

Over the trailing twelve months, Goodbaby International Holdings Ltd generated revenue of HK$8.7B at a net margin of 2.5%. Revenue declined 4.8% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 3.6%. Net debt stands at HK$149M. Fundamentals as of Aug 22, 2026

Our scenario range runs from HK$2.16 (bear case) to HK$3.59 (bull case); at HK$1.09, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 21% below its 52-week high and 36% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −1% fair-value upside, at 164%, 1086 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly HK$0.0067 per share, which is 0.2 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

Model Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
FCF DCF best evidence HK$4.61 HK$6.09 HK$7.92 82
Growth DCF HK$4.69 HK$6.04 HK$7.63 80
Owner Earnings HK$2.49 HK$3.24 HK$4.17 78
All 23 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF best evidence HK$4.61 HK$6.09 HK$7.92 82
Owner Earnings HK$2.49 HK$3.24 HK$4.17 78
5Y Revenue Exit HK$3.18 HK$4.17 HK$5.33 74
5Y EBITDA Exit HK$4.38 HK$6.30 HK$8.42 76
5Y P/E Exit HK$3.19 HK$4.19 HK$5.16 72
10Y Revenue Exit HK$3.70 HK$4.65 HK$5.74 68
10Y EBITDA Exit HK$4.44 HK$5.96 HK$7.78 69
10Y P/E Exit HK$3.76 HK$4.66 HK$5.62 65
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd HK$0.8900 HK$2.06 HK$2.64 65
PEG = 1.0 HK$0.3500 HK$0.5000 HK$0.6500 57
EPV HK$1.54 HK$1.71 HK$1.85 74
Multiples
P/E Multiple HK$2.16 HK$2.88 HK$3.59 63
P/S Multiple HK$1.67 HK$2.22 HK$2.78 58
P/B Multiple HK$1.67 HK$2.22 HK$2.78 55
EV/EBIT HK$3.25 HK$4.23 HK$5.22 66
EV/EBITDA HK$4.80 HK$6.30 HK$7.80 67
EV/Revenue HK$2.29 HK$3.14 HK$3.99 54
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) HK$1.85 HK$2.48 HK$3.70 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF HK$4.69 HK$6.04 HK$7.63 80
Rev-Margin DCF HK$3.18 HK$4.25 HK$5.42 74
Economic Profit
Residual Income HK$2.56 HK$2.45 HK$1.97 76
ROIC Compounder HK$1.54 HK$1.71 HK$1.85 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E HK$1.62 HK$2.31 HK$3.01 67

Widest divergence: DCF Models (HK$4.65) versus Earnings-Based (HK$1.71). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (82).

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Key figures & financial health

P/E ratio 6.3 as of Jul 2, 2026
P/S ratio 0.16 P/E × margin
EPS (TTM) HK$0.0600 price ÷ EPS = P/E 6.3
Dividend yield 4.6% payout 83.3%
Net margin 2.5% FY2025
Return on equity 3.6% TTM
More key figures
Profitability
Return on assets (EBIT) 2.2% avg 5y
Operating margin 5.1% TTM
Growth
Revenue (TTM) HK$8.7B TTM
Revenue growth (YoY) −4.8% 3y avg +1.5%
EPS growth (YoY) −32.3%
Balance sheet & cash flow
Free cash flow HK$817M FY2025
Net debt HK$149M FY2025 · ≈ 0.2 yrs of FCF

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 22, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 57/100

Of which business quality 58 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 48

Profitability 42
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 38
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 66
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 53
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 91
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 57
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 46
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 40
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 67
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.

About the company

Goodbaby International Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the design, research and development, manufacturing, marketing, and distribution of products for children in Europe, the Middle East, India, Africa, the Americas, and the Asia Pacific. It operates through three segments: Wheeled goods, Car Seats, and Others.

Full company description

Goodbaby International Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the design, research and development, manufacturing, marketing, and distribution of products for children in Europe, the Middle East, India, Africa, the Americas, and the Asia Pacific. It operates through three segments: Wheeled goods, Car Seats, and Others. The company offers wheeled goods, and accessories, including strollers, jogging strollers, and other child conveyances; car safety seats and accessories for child; and other children's products, such as apparels, personal care and sanitary products, home textiles, toys, activities, kids ride-on products, home furniture for child, and other similar products. It also manufactures, distributes, and sells safety belts, cloth sets, car safety seats, car components for children, infant strollers, bicycles, strollers, pushchairs, high chairs, and other products for children; tests children's products, tools, electronic products; provides advisory service for risk valuation of product quality, IT services, and share service center; purchase, sale, holding and management of participating interests; wholesale, retail, and e-commerce of children's products; and distributes and sells other parenting products. It sells its products under the CYBEX, gb, Evenflo, Rollplay, ExerSaucer, Urbini, and hd brands. International Holdings Limited was founded in 1989 and is headquartered in Kunshan, the People's Republic of China.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Goodbaby International Holdings Ltd reported revenue of HK$8.7B in FY2025 versus HK$9.7B in FY2021, a compound −2.8%/yr. Reported net income was HK$219M in FY2025, compounding +15.3%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 40/100
Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
HK$8.7B
Latest YoY
−1.2%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+1.5%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+0.8%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (18Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+6.9%
Value creation/yr (5Y) ⓘEarnings growth per share (CAGR 5 years) plus dividend yield: value created per share and year.
+5.6% (1.0 + 4.6)
Revenue −2.8%/yr
FY21 HK$9.7B
FY22 HK$8.3B
FY23 HK$7.9B
FY24 HK$8.8B
FY25 HK$8.7B
Net income +15.3%/yr
FY21 HK$124M
FY22 HK$33.5M
FY23 HK$203M
FY24 HK$356M
FY25 HK$219M
Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2014-2025) +1.1 % p.a.
Revenue per share −1.6 %

of which total revenue +3.1 % · buybacks/dilution −4.6 %

EBIT margin +3.1 %
Tax rate −0.2 %
Residual (interest, one-offs) +0.0 %

Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Goodbaby International Holdings Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/1086

Peer Group

Leisure · 194 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 57 · Above median
Fair Value upside +164% · Top 25%
Return on equity (TTM) 4% · Below median
Return on assets 2% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) 3% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM) 5% · Below median
Revenue growth −5% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM) 4.6% · Above median
Debt / equity 0.13× · Higher than median

Valuation Multiples vs Leisure median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 6.3× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/B 0.22× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/S (TTM) 0.16× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/FCF 0.2× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
EV/EBITDA 1.3× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
PEG 2.02× · Pricier than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE100 · sector 19
FUTURE0 · sector 14
PAST15 · sector 19
HEALTH93 · sector 94
DIVIDEND92 · sector 54

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

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Frequently asked questions

Is Goodbaby International Holdings Ltd (1086) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 22, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$2.88 versus a price of HK$1.09, about +164% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 1086?
Our model-based fair value for Goodbaby International Holdings Ltd is HK$2.88 (as of Aug 22, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$1.09.
What is the quality score of 1086?
Goodbaby International Holdings Ltd has a Quality Score of 57/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Goodbaby International Holdings Ltd (1086)?
Goodbaby International Holdings Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$8.7B (latest available figure, as of Aug 22, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of 1086?
The net profit margin of Goodbaby International Holdings Ltd is about 2.5%, meaning it keeps roughly 2.5% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Goodbaby International Holdings Ltd pay a dividend?
Goodbaby International Holdings Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 4.59% relative to its recent price (as of Aug 22, 2026).
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